AI will create 'useless class' of humans • Hacker News Board

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#61

Post by decayy » Sun, May 22, 2016, 1:25 PM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #15

decayy wrote: post #10

Every time a new tech emerges someone will always say, that the new tech will take away human jobs. The new tech will take away human jobs. But the humans will just go do other newly created jobs.

That has been the general trend over time, but AI breaks this trend. The basic problem is there is minimum wage below which humans can't survive. No such lower limit exists with AI. At some point every job can be performed for less by an AI.

I dont know. I'm not an expert in Theoretical C.S.. But from what I can understand is that we need a pretty big break through in C.S to get to that point.

Sure some jobs will be replaced but new jobs will be created. Thinking on the spot now. A manager and a whole team of people that oversee the job that the A.I does. Jobs that focus on applying A.I to certain field, (A.I consultants)

People value human interaction and when there is value in something, there is money to be made.

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#62

Post by decayy » Sun, May 22, 2016, 1:29 PM UTC

bad_alloc wrote: post #16

decayy wrote: post #10

Every time a new tech emerges someone will always say, that the new tech will take away human jobs. The new tech will take away human jobs. But the humans will just go do other newly created jobs.

So far we've automated physical tasks. It was possible to go into intellectual jobs as an alternative avenue, since automating that wasn't possible. However now we're automating mental work. Humans can currently go into jobs requiring higher education or creativity but 1) this won't work for everybody and 2) this is not a new avenue outside of the reach of automatization. The machines have a good chance of catching,…

We seem to be ignoring the current theoretical limitations of A.I. I'm not an C.S or A.I expert. But what I can remember from university is that we need a pretty big breakthrough in computer science to get to that stage. I'm not saying it won't happen. But who knows.

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#63

Post by majewsky » Sun, May 22, 2016, 1:37 PM UTC

monort wrote: post #57

Udik wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is possible, in theory. That however assumes that the property of all those machines and product is public - that they are owned by the collectivity. And that this allows to run them efficiently. But even if this is possibke, it's the transition period between the current private property system and a completely collectivist one that's scary. Because at the moment almost all means of production are privately owned…

The price will go to zero gradually. It's already doing it - it used to be that you had to work for a several months to buy a shirt. Today you can do it with a several hours of a minimum wage, and in a "scary" future you will need to work for a several minutes.

Cheap shirts can be had for under 5 € in Germany, with minimum wage at 8.50 €. (The fine print: These cheap shirts likely contain more chemicals than cotton.)

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#64

Post by majewsky » Sun, May 22, 2016, 1:45 PM UTC

decayy wrote: post #62

bad_alloc wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far we've automated physical tasks. It was possible to go into intellectual jobs as an alternative avenue, since automating that wasn't possible. However now we're automating mental work. Humans can currently go into jobs requiring higher education or creativity but 1) this won't work for everybody and 2) this is not a new avenue outside of the reach of automatization. The machines have a good chance of catching,…

We seem to be ignoring the current theoretical limitations of A.I. I'm not an C.S or A.I expert. But what I can remember from university is that we need a pretty big breakthrough in computer science to get to that stage. I'm not saying it won't happen. But who knows.

Even if we cannot automate everything, we are going to be in big trouble (on a social level) if the work left to humans only occupies anything less than about 50% of adult people. The relevant thing will be the ratio of decay rate of jobs that are automated away vs. creation rate of new jobs, but that's hard to estimate because technological advances are hard to estimate.

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#65

Post by decayy » Sun, May 22, 2016, 1:55 PM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #64

decayy wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We seem to be ignoring the current theoretical limitations of A.I. I'm not an C.S or A.I expert. But what I can remember from university is that we need a pretty big breakthrough in computer science to get to that stage. I'm not saying it won't happen. But who knows.

Even if we cannot automate everything, we are going to be in big trouble (on a social level) if the work left to humans only occupies anything less than about 50% of adult people. The relevant thing will be the ratio of decay rate of jobs that are automated away vs. creation rate of new jobs, but that's hard to estimate because technological advances are hard to estimate.

It's true. The past is not a perfect indicator of future. This time it could be different. The transition wont be smooth and people in large number will actively try and stop technological progress.

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#66

Post by thomasahle » Sun, May 22, 2016, 1:59 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #50

thomasahle wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no point to AI without us. But all of us? That's where the class thing comes in.

If AI is truly useful, then it'll be put to use for everybody. Technology has been dicking around with our social classes for thousands of years. You could argue that technology is the whole reason we have social classes in the first place. You have to ask yourself what's so different about AI. It's an interesting question, but none of the more dramatic answers are really unprecedented. It's a "what is true isn't new…

> there won't be any point in just deploying AI to serve only the elites.

Why? If it's the elites that deploy it?

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#67

Post by CuriouslyC » Sun, May 22, 2016, 2:18 PM UTC

bsbechtel wrote: post #49

Udik wrote: post #38

I see a lot of comments saying "this happened in the past, and the new technologies never made the humans useless". Well, maybe a good way to state the current problem is the following: the aim of this new technology is to produce humans . A potentially infinite amount of them. Running on electricity instead of food. Needing the space of a box. Without the need to sleep, socialize, furnish their apartments, look for…

When this happens, costs for virtually everything will more or less go to zero, because we can make humans to make more humans to make everything else in our society that costs money. Try to imagine a society where virtually everything is free...visualize walking around and getting free coffee from Starbucks, free rides from Uber, free meals three times a day, free healthcare, free housing, etc. If everything is free…

You're assuming that human brains and bodies are grossly inefficient. I would argue that while humans are bad at some tasks, the brain is a fairly efficient _low-order_ general probabalistic computer, and the body is a fairly efficient as a highly general object manipulation system. I doubt for highly varied, extremely low value tasks that robots backed by AI will be significantly cheaper than humans for a long time, if ever. We're too close to the end of Moore's law, and energy efficiency is such a survival advantage that life has almost certainly optimized this variable fairly well.

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#68

Post by harperlee » Sun, May 22, 2016, 2:30 PM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #63

monort wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price will go to zero gradually. It's already doing it - it used to be that you had to work for a several months to buy a shirt. Today you can do it with a several hours of a minimum wage, and in a "scary" future you will need to work for a several minutes.

Cheap shirts can be had for under 5 € in Germany, with minimum wage at 8.50 €. (The fine print: These cheap shirts likely contain more chemicals than cotton.)

So they are made with other organic compounds. Do they function as shirts? What is the problem with nylon?

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#69

Post by [deleted] » Sun, May 22, 2016, 2:31 PM UTC

CuriouslyC wrote: post #67

bsbechtel wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When this happens, costs for virtually everything will more or less go to zero, because we can make humans to make more humans to make everything else in our society that costs money. Try to imagine a society where virtually everything is free...visualize walking around and getting free coffee from Starbucks, free rides from Uber, free meals three times a day, free healthcare, free housing, etc. If everything is free…

You're assuming that human brains and bodies are grossly inefficient. I would argue that while humans are bad at some tasks, the brain is a fairly efficient _low-order_ general probabalistic computer, and the body is a fairly efficient as a highly general object manipulation system. I doubt for highly varied, extremely low value tasks that robots backed by AI will be significantly cheaper than humans for a long time,…

[deleted]

Re: AI will create 'useless class' of humans

#70

Post by CuriouslyC » Sun, May 22, 2016, 2:34 PM UTC

terhechte wrote: post #33

agentultra wrote: post #25

These screeds have one grave misunderstanding: that AI can compete with a human. It's like apples to oranges. Alpha Go may have beat the best human player in the world but you can't ask it to fold the laundry or how it felt about Angela's Ashes. I think we'll be able to optimize away boring, repetitive jobs and tasks that require vast numerical and statistical quantities. And that's a good thing. We'll just need to a…

Something I never see answered in these discussions: What are the previous workers to do, those whose jobs were so simple that a properly configured AI can perform it faster and better. Every other job that they would be capable of is just as likely to be replaced by another properly configured machine. If every possible tasks a person would be capable of handling can be solved by a specific machine in a better way t…

Life has had billions of years to evolve into an efficient system, from a thermodynamic standpoint. We may make AI backed robots that eclipse humans in terms of capabilities, but I strongly doubt we'll approach human price/performance ratio for highly varied tasks for a very long time, if ever.

Positions that involve a wide variety of fairly simple but involved skills such as landscapers, mechanics, or maids will probably be around for a long time. Don't forget the fact that as other jobs are automated away, the supply of these sorts of laborers will increase, resulting in lower wages.