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Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

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Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#131

Post by argonaut »

Diederich wrote: post #97
lutefisk wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about stagecoach drivers? Bread makers? Blacksmiths? Switchboard operator? What did all these people do when their services were no longer necessary / greatly diminished? It's not like by Friday automated trucking will take over. You know it's coming, and if you don't start learning new skills or look for new work, then you're just ignorant to technology and will be out of a job.

I think the key difference 'this time' is how quickly change is happening. Second, in the past, change was necessarily isolated in most cases, because society and business wasn't so highly connected as it is today. Concretely, at some point, a major trunking firm could replace most of its drivers with machines over the course of a couple of years, at most. More generally, the rate of change continues to increase. A f…

I don't think the change is coming quickly, actually. I think truck drivers have a good 10 years before they're out of a job, both due to technology (self-driving cars won't be fully autonomous for at least 5 years), and due to regulation/adoption (add another 5+ years). This actually leaves them less of an excuse to start retraining now, but it's also a problem because it gives most of them an excuse to dismiss the tech.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#132

Post by fullshark »

remarkEon wrote: post #121
fullshark wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It always bothered me that they gave Sobotka the "We used to make shit in this country" line considering his entire job was importing stuff made in other countries.

That line felt to me to be more of a global critique of the decline of consistent blue collar employment in industrial towns, like Baltimore.

It seemed a bit too on the nose. The Wire is great but a few thesis statement lines like this scattered throughout bug me.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#133

Post by wrsh07 »

vonmoltke wrote: post #68
wrsh07 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As opposed to a company with top of the line machine learning systems.

A company with top of the line machine learning systems designed to improve advertising results is not better positioned to build an autonomous vehicle than a company with top of the line non-autonomous vehicles.

The argument here is essentially this: Microsoft started to lose when they (a company building computers, operating systems, and essential productivity software) were not best positioned to create mobile phones, despite being the biggest player in the computer market.

Being a bigger player doesn't mean you're better suited to solve a problem.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#134

Post by awesomerobot »

chefkoch wrote: post #125
calbear81 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The train engineer analogy is a good one, you would imagine that a single "truckgineer" so to speak could be responsible for managing a convoy of let's say 10-15 trucks which would make it much more efficient. In regards to fueling, would you make that more efficient by adding a larger fuel tank or fuel car?

> In regards to fueling, would you make that more efficient by adding a larger fuel tank or fuel car. Or have someone at the gas station fill up the trucks like it was decades ago.

or you know, automate it

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#135

Post by awesomerobot »

maxerickson wrote: post #73
delecti wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At any one time, what percentage of the total truck drivers would you imagine are currently on the road vs maneuvering the last mile. The last mile might be a significant portion of where their skill shines, but it's almost certainly not a significant portion of the time spent. If a driver spends 1 hour at each end of a 20 hour cross region trip, that could still be a 10 times decrease in the total number of skilled…

I kind of wonder if the first thing that will be deskilled is the last 1000 feet. A lot of shipments do go to places that get infrequent deliveries, but any place that is receiving trucks all day every day might decide it makes sense to program the maneuvers once and not let humans fool around with each truck anymore. I'm assuming that the automation system will have equal or better fine grained control over the vehi…

For the last 1000 feet you can just have an employee on-site.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#136

Post by jon-wood »

stuxnet79 wrote: post #75
jon-wood wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the out of work truck drivers can become pump attendants waiting to fill up their former vehicles as they pull in for more fuel.

Funny comment, but it looks like you are fishing for downvotes here buddy. Assuming these trucks are electric, they could set it up like the Tesla recharging stations where you can recharge simply by driving over a mini-trapdoor that houses a fully charged battery pack and a robotic arm which can swap your expended pack for the new one.

What's the point in karma if not to blow it on bad jokes now and then? I'd completely missed the electric trucks angle, but that could work well assuming they can master hit swappable battery packs.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#137

Post by agumonkey »

mfoy_ wrote: post #116
ori_b wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The majority of a long haul trucker's job is interacting with legal authorities at weigh stations, dealing with loading crews, performing required truck maintenance on the road, etc... In other words, the parts that don't have to move much. You can keep a much smaller, more local staff that costs far less per volume of goods flowing. A single agent at a weigh station that handles hundreds of trucks a day, instead o…

Or even simpler, have the self-driving truck, but keep the "driver" to do all the normal non-driving stuff. Would be a great opportunity to get a lot of reading done, for example.

Let's discuss a world where mobility doesn't mean mind dedication. With the few VR/AR things popping all around, handling a truck might just be a pause after a 2 hour meeting in your virtual office.

Take that space time.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#138

Post by csours »

phamilton wrote: post #120
ori_b wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's possible, but it's rather expensive to pay someone to read for most of the day.

The solution I liked was to make call center employees double as "drivers" of automated vehicles.

Congratulations, now you have a bunch of disgruntled, angry people driving murder machines.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#139

Post by ori_b »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #128
ori_b wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's possible, but it's rather expensive to pay someone to read for most of the day.

They're already paying them to drive all day.

Yes, and the point of self driving cars is to avoid doing that.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#140

Post by spacecowboy_lon »

exhilaration wrote: post #70
spacecowboy_lon wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends CA is quite liberal in terms of non competes and I suspect they woudl argue that self driving trucks is sufficiently different from self driving cars.

This is one reason why California is great for tech workers, the unenforceable non-competes. In much of the country you'd have to wait out a year before working in the same industry as your current employer.

Agreed the USA having 52 separate sets of employment laws does not make sense - really employment law should be done at federal level - think of the saving in reduction in red tape.

Though I suspect HR and Lawyers might lobby against that as a job protection scheme.

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