Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks • Hacker News Board

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#81

Post by Kalium » Tue, May 17, 2016, 2:52 PM UTC

Loughla wrote: post #51

PunchTornado wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

by acting rational and find another job

That is so flippant and just the most immature thing. As an under 30 year old, highly educated individual, yep - just get another job. Move somewhere across country if you need to; you don't have kids or a mortgage. As a specialized veteran of a job that requires very few transferable skills, truck drivers are fucked initially, and we'll see massive unemployment from this. In many cases, the areas with high ratios of…

I come from a dying factory town. I understand the pain, the grief, the suffering of having your livelihood vanish in a puff of machine-shaped smoke. It destroys people - whole identities get hung on one occupation. It destroys communities - whole towns depend on one factory or one trucking line.

So bear that in mind with what I say next.

Suck it up. The rest of us have changed our lives, reshaped our minds, and left behind the communities we knew. It's painful. It can be emotionally excruciating. But it's far from impossible. If we can do it, so can you.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#82

Post by unk » Tue, May 17, 2016, 2:58 PM UTC

spenczar5 wrote: post #71

cheriot wrote: post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

> When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? Containerized shipping. Interestingly, it's in the world of logistics too. Longshoremen/dockworkers/stevedores used to be among the most common occupations in the US at the turn of the century, but now the industry employs a tiny fraction. A small group of a few hundred people can effectively…

Source: The Wire Season 2.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#83

Post by parsnips » Tue, May 17, 2016, 2:58 PM UTC

meddlepal wrote: post #45

Chathamization wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains seem like pretty low hanging fruit, since they don't have to deal with nearly as much problems as vehicles on the road. Yet train automation still hasn't put train operators out of work. I doubt that self-driving cars/trucks, which lag far behind self-driving trains, are going to cause much unemployment anytime soon.

At least in the US, the FRA is a regulatory nightmare though and extremely red tape heavy. The lack of progress in train automation is partly caused by the heavy-handed rules the agency rights which push implementation costs through the roof. It'll be interesting to see if the DOT reacts similarly in time to vehicle automation.

This. I worked in the PTC space in the early 2k's. The person that the FRA send to be their regulatory representative to our program did not trust transistors over electromechanical switches, because you couldn't see how the transistors were failing. As you can imagine, our progress was slow.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#84

Post by tgb29 » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:06 PM UTC

cheriot wrote: post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

Maybe some jobs will be replaced, but the industry is facing a shortage of truck drivers. One of the most common job listings on Craigslist is for truck drivers with paid training. The lifestyle of a truck driver can be brutal and unhealthy.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#85

Post by headShrinker » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:12 PM UTC

ttcbj wrote: post #65

cheriot wrote: post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

It does, and I wondered why Google hadn't targeted it first. Its simpler,and there is a compelling business case. I wonder if their decision was driven by political savvy - self driving cars help the blind/elderly, and automate work most people are glad to see automated. Self-driving trucks are going to have a major employment impact which will likely draw political resistance.

I would say this is absolutely a political decision and a marketing decision. Google has gone to great lengths to help the public feel comfortable with autonomous cars, right down to the 'cute' buggy look of their vehicles. The trick is to move slow enough so people's interest out paces their fears.

The implications for self driving cars is nothing short of an existential threat for so many people in this world. As we know, it's just the beginning.

Similarly, Apple moved very slowly in introducing the iPad even though the under technology had been available for years. They started with the iPod, then advanced to the iPhone. At the time the iPhone caused a great amount of tribulation. People were very uncomfortable and large portions of the tech sector predicted it would be a monstrous failure. Their apprehension was cloaking a deep-seated unfirmiliarity (and maybe some fear). Once the iPad finally did arrive it was easily digested by the market. That was the mistake HP and windows made when they introduced the tablet in 2001. People had no concept of what a tablet is or how to integrate it in to their lives, so it was a miserable failure.

The lesson is don't move so fast that you scare your ultimate market, the people.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#86

Post by spenczar5 » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:15 PM UTC

unk wrote: post #82

spenczar5 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? Containerized shipping. Interestingly, it's in the world of logistics too. Longshoremen/dockworkers/stevedores used to be among the most common occupations in the US at the turn of the century, but now the industry employs a tiny fraction. A small group of a few hundred people can effectively…

Source: The Wire Season 2.

Actual source: The Box by Marc Levinson. Highly recommended. First chapter is available online: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8131.pdf

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#87

Post by shkkmo » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:16 PM UTC

lgieron wrote: post #33

Who goes to jail when the self-driving truck kills someone?

That same as when a trucker-driving truck kills someones, usually nobody. But it will happen less often, so that's a good thing.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#88

Post by dexterdog » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:19 PM UTC

tgb29 wrote: post #84

cheriot wrote: post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

Maybe some jobs will be replaced, but the industry is facing a shortage of truck drivers. One of the most common job listings on Craigslist is for truck drivers with paid training. The lifestyle of a truck driver can be brutal and unhealthy.

Plus, who would want to get into that industry today when you know that it's going to be automated as soon as possible?

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#89

Post by icefox » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:23 PM UTC

luma wrote: post #40

xiphias wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wanted to ask the same thing: did they quit because they didn't get enough money/stocks at the companies that they were at, or were not working on important enough stuff, or just wanted more risk for the sake of getting into more risk? Or do they think that their business model is so much better than Google's? (facilitating drivers to drive even longer without sleeping) The salary of a truck driver is about $50000,…

You're forgetting that one driver can only drive 70 hours a week (with rules around breaks in the middle), while presumably the AI could run the truck much closer to 24/7. In this case, installing a $200k system would allow the company to replace ~3 drivers with no interruptions in service.

More valuable than replacing three drivers is the fact that because the AI can drive all of the time the total time to deliver goods goes down which means it is more valuable and a higher price can be charged for the delivery.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#90

Post by viscanti » Tue, May 17, 2016, 3:30 PM UTC

headShrinker wrote: post #85

ttcbj wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does, and I wondered why Google hadn't targeted it first. Its simpler,and there is a compelling business case. I wonder if their decision was driven by political savvy - self driving cars help the blind/elderly, and automate work most people are glad to see automated. Self-driving trucks are going to have a major employment impact which will likely draw political resistance.

I would say this is absolutely a political decision and a marketing decision. Google has gone to great lengths to help the public feel comfortable with autonomous cars, right down to the 'cute' buggy look of their vehicles. The trick is to move slow enough so people's interest out paces their fears. The implications for self driving cars is nothing short of an existential threat for so many people in this world. As w…

Is the premise here that Google could already have market ready self-driving car tech that they could be selling but they're going slower to make people comfortable? This is the first time I've heard such an argument. It's very interesting if true. Are there any data points to back that up?