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Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

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Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#51

Post by Loughla »

PunchTornado wrote: post #20
cheriot wrote: post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

by acting rational and find another job

That is so flippant and just the most immature thing. As an under 30 year old, highly educated individual, yep - just get another job. Move somewhere across country if you need to; you don't have kids or a mortgage.

As a specialized veteran of a job that requires very few transferable skills, truck drivers are fucked initially, and we'll see massive unemployment from this.

In many cases, the areas with high ratios of their economy supported by trade/transportation have very weak other sectors of the economy. Good luck working part-time retail, truck drivers. Hope you didn't like your benefits or salary.

ALL of that being said, I support automation and can't wait for it in my life.

I am honestly sorry for the anger, but really. Stop to think about this from someone else's perspective for a second. Just acting like they should just go get another job and that there aren't any hiccups is ridiculous. Look at Detroit, look at Gary, look at any of the large rust-belt cities. These things aren't without precedent.

Acting like all these people need to do is apply themselves a little harder is just stupid.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#52

Post by mikeash »

toyg wrote: post #42
pfortuny wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not taking into account the risk of trouble (non-negligible)... Driving includes solving problems like lack of oil, crashes, etc...

Robberies should be question #1.

Seems like an autonomous truck should be harder to rob than a normal one. If you want to hijack a normal truck you just wave a gun at the driver, kick him out, and take the wheel. An autonomous truck won't feel threatened by a gun and may not even have any human-operable controls.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#53

Post by nashashmi »

delecti wrote: post #35
nashashmi wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Auto truck driving won't remove truck drivers from their jobs too fast. There is a ton of science involved in trucking and good training is key. For this reason, a person will still be required for local driving.

At any one time, what percentage of the total truck drivers would you imagine are currently on the road vs maneuvering the last mile. The last mile might be a significant portion of where their skill shines, but it's almost certainly not a significant portion of the time spent. If a driver spends 1 hour at each end of a 20 hour cross region trip, that could still be a 10 times decrease in the total number of skilled…

I frown when we look at a technology negatively for the impact on the JOBS out there. Instead, let's take a look at the tech for the benefits it provides the person doing the job, how much it will improve the quality of life and the quality of work, and how much more a worker can accomplish.

Few people realize there is a caveat here too: Driver efficiency goes up and that means drivers can get paid more. The cost of driving goes down and that means more goods can be shipped.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#54

Post by wstrange »

scarmig wrote: post #48
toyg wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robberies should be question #1.

Obviously the solution is to teach AIs how to use guns. (Do military drones already have this? Could trucking companies legally send in armed security drones when they detect a robbery in process?)

New NRA tagline:

The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good AI with a gun

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#55

Post by danvoell »

chefkoch wrote: post #26

>If you need to replace all of your trucks to get the technology on it, the rate of penetration you'll be able to have is pretty low. Trucks last ten years, a million miles. Actually i would find a adoption rate like this very fast.

Yea, seems extremely fast. They last 10 years now, with maintenance. But assume you have a moderate repair come up and you start running the calculations drive labor + maintanance vs. maintenance only and that 10 year life will shrink to bring in new vehicles.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#56

Post by randomsearch »

iofj wrote: post #46
Chathamization wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains seem like pretty low hanging fruit, since they don't have to deal with nearly as much problems as vehicles on the road. Yet train automation still hasn't put train operators out of work. I doubt that self-driving cars/trucks, which lag far behind self-driving trains, are going to cause much unemployment anytime soon.

For trains, where 1 person directs 200+ cars, the reward just isn't great enough. For trucks, where one person directs 1 truckload, it's 200+ times as rewarding. Plus, almost every country in the world has stopped building infrastructure to allow trains to go where you'd want them to go. So trains are only useful for huge manufacturing firms and things like harbors. Goods trains don't even go to most airports anymore…

Bit of an aside, but I've often heard it argued that trains make more sense for passenger traffic.

The reasoning is that you can shift a lot of people into one central station, and they then deliver themselves over the last stage of a journey through ambulation.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#57

Post by toyg »

mikeash wrote: post #52
toyg wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robberies should be question #1.

Seems like an autonomous truck should be harder to rob than a normal one. If you want to hijack a normal truck you just wave a gun at the driver, kick him out, and take the wheel. An autonomous truck won't feel threatened by a gun and may not even have any human-operable controls.

But you can crash it without worrying about adding a capital offence to your criminal record.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#58

Post by jhall1468 »

pfortuny wrote: post #39
delecti wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At any one time, what percentage of the total truck drivers would you imagine are currently on the road vs maneuvering the last mile. The last mile might be a significant portion of where their skill shines, but it's almost certainly not a significant portion of the time spent. If a driver spends 1 hour at each end of a 20 hour cross region trip, that could still be a 10 times decrease in the total number of skilled…

You are not taking into account the risk of trouble (non-negligible)... Driving includes solving problems like lack of oil, crashes, etc...

Crashes don't matter very much, since a human vs a machine isn't going to change anything in that regard. Let's assume lack of oil implies mechanical issues (since... you know, fill it with oil before it leaves). In that case it's vastly cheaper to dispatch a mechanic when a problem arises then it is to have a fleet of drivers sitting in a vehicle.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#59

Post by true_religion »

toyg wrote: post #42
pfortuny wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not taking into account the risk of trouble (non-negligible)... Driving includes solving problems like lack of oil, crashes, etc...

Robberies should be question #1.

An autonomous vehicle can be designed not to be hijacked.

Simply remove all user controls, or lock them unless an authorized user is sitting in the seat.

If the vehicle stops for an 'emergency' reason, notify someone in central command immediately. At that point they can monitor the situation.

If the vehicle is stopped under an emergency, and notices that its door panels are being broken into, then it can notify central command so they can call the police.

All the while, it's recording from every angle possible.

----

On the other hand, regular trucks have a driver who has to leave the vehicle to take care of human business and can be kidnapped or threatened into any number of actions that'd help a robber complete their work.

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