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Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

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Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#34
post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

by acting rational and find another job

Because it is trivially easy for a 20 year veteran of an entire discipline obsoleted profession that despite having very harsh hours did pay a reasonable wage to just pivot into another career of similar merit?

That is to even say there are ~4 million jobs in the US currently going undone, that would pay ~80k a year in effective income, that people are just not doing now because only the truckers have the work ethic to do them.

That is not how economics works, and the only difference between this sea change and previous ones (the obsolesence of agrarian living being by far the largest) is that unlike those, you could not just "ignore" it until you are dead while your kids and future generations make the transition and just sell your farm after you die.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#35
post #15

Sending a truck down an interstate for 20 hours has to be the lowest hanging fruit for self driving vehicles. When was the last time an entire category of jobs became obsolete fast enough that laid off employees blamed the technology? When long haul truckers are out of work, how will municipal bus driver unions react?

Auto truck driving won't remove truck drivers from their jobs too fast. There is a ton of science involved in trucking and good training is key. For this reason, a person will still be required for local driving.

At any one time, what percentage of the total truck drivers would you imagine are currently on the road vs maneuvering the last mile. The last mile might be a significant portion of where their skill shines, but it's almost certainly not a significant portion of the time spent.

If a driver spends 1 hour at each end of a 20 hour cross region trip, that could still be a 10 times decrease in the total number of skilled drivers needed. A handful of skilled drivers at each trucking destination could be sufficient.

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#36
> Otto isn't alone in trying to automate big rigs. Daimler and Volvo Trucks have both demonstrated self-driving systems in recent months, but Levandowski doesn't sound worried about those efforts. "I think the trucking folks are doing a great job, and eventually they would probably solve the problem. But a company that is used to building trucks is not well structured to solve a technology problem," he says.

As opposed to what, an advertisement company?

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#39
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Auto truck driving won't remove truck drivers from their jobs too fast. There is a ton of science involved in trucking and good training is key. For this reason, a person will still be required for local driving.

At any one time, what percentage of the total truck drivers would you imagine are currently on the road vs maneuvering the last mile. The last mile might be a significant portion of where their skill shines, but it's almost certainly not a significant portion of the time spent. If a driver spends 1 hour at each end of a 20 hour cross region trip, that could still be a 10 times decrease in the total number of skilled…

You are not taking into account the risk of trouble (non-negligible)... Driving includes solving problems like lack of oil, crashes, etc...

Re: Google veterans head off on their own to work on self-driving trucks

#40
post #4

"Many of Otto's founders have done well for themselves over the years, and it shows: the company is entirely self-funded right now without any external investment. (In the wake of the reported $1 billion Cruise Automation sale to General Motors, I ask Ron if the plan is to get acquired, but he's insistent that they're focused on bringing a product to market.) Even George Hotz's scrappy upstart Comma.ai has recently t…

I wanted to ask the same thing: did they quit because they didn't get enough money/stocks at the companies that they were at, or were not working on important enough stuff, or just wanted more risk for the sake of getting into more risk? Or do they think that their business model is so much better than Google's? (facilitating drivers to drive even longer without sleeping) The salary of a truck driver is about $50000,…

You're forgetting that one driver can only drive 70 hours a week (with rules around breaks in the middle), while presumably the AI could run the truck much closer to 24/7. In this case, installing a $200k system would allow the company to replace ~3 drivers with no interruptions in service.
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