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Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

experimental-geography.blogspot.com

11–20 of 155 posts

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#11
post #6

> It will be very hard. If the (first) model is correct, it would take a 53% increase in the housing supply (200,000 new units), Doesn't seem that hard in a city full of three-story housing.

I'm thinking the same thing. Is it physical limitations of building (such as earthquake proofing) that makes it difficult? Or is it the suffocating amount of bureaucratic red tape imposed by short-sighted interest groups?

Red tape. All red tape. See top comment.

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#12
post #4
post #2

Url changed from https://medium.com/@andersem/a-guy-just-transcribed-30-years... , which points to this.

Yeah. Keeping it classy with a tiny grey link at the bottom of the Medium article.

Agreed in general, but the Medium author seems genuinely enthusiastic about the OP, so it was probably just an oversight. (Edit: and the phrase where he introduces the source article does link to it.)

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#13
post #6

> It will be very hard. If the (first) model is correct, it would take a 53% increase in the housing supply (200,000 new units), Doesn't seem that hard in a city full of three-story housing.

Here's an interesting comparison. New York City's population density is 56% higher than San Francisco's, and the average height of a building in New York City is only 6.8 stories (in spite of skyscrapers pushing up the mean).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

http://www.sunilmishra.in/2012/07/05/average-building-height...

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#14
post #6

> It will be very hard. If the (first) model is correct, it would take a 53% increase in the housing supply (200,000 new units), Doesn't seem that hard in a city full of three-story housing.

Here's an interesting comparison. New York City's population density is 56% higher than San Francisco's, and the average height of a building in New York City is only 6.8 stories (in spite of skyscrapers pushing up the mean). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... http://www.sunilmishra.in/2012/07/05/average-building-height...

Do you happen to know how many units the largest residential building in NYC has? It would be interesting to know the minimum number of buildings needed to cover the 200k unit deficit.

[edit]

Thanks for all the replies!

So it looks like we are talking about a minimum of hundreds of buildings to be torn-down and rebuilt taller. That seems unlikely to happen in SF proper.

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#15
I can add this. I worked as a union electrician, as an apprentice, in San Francisco in 1999. My first job site was Pac-Bell park. My next few job sites were residential units. Developers would buy office buildings, gut them, and build condos/homes.

I worked on at least five different job sites around that city. Everyone one of the job sites were residential condo/homes. There was a slight building boom going on, but nothing like today.

I forget the exact prices of the residential units, but the cheapest one was $950,000, and they went up to 2.5 million quick.

All the units were tastefully done. You got a parking spot. You got a nice place. They were built for wealthy people. I can't imagine what they are going for today.

The companies I worked for added, roughly, I'm guessing close to 400 residential units. I don't think it made a difference in home prices.

Coworkers used to joke around, "Hay, when you get up to $100/hr(including benefits) you will be able to move right in." It was a joke back then; it's a joke now.

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#16
Obligatory reminder: If you care about housing in the Bay Area, register to vote now. Scott Wiener is a housing and transportation advocate running for State Senate in this election.

http://registertovote.ca.gov/

Show up to Planning Commission and Board of Supervisor meetings. Participate in public comment. We all talk about how NIMBYs rule SF, it's because they show up in full force at these gatherings.

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#17
post #6

> It will be very hard. If the (first) model is correct, it would take a 53% increase in the housing supply (200,000 new units), Doesn't seem that hard in a city full of three-story housing.

New York City's mayor has pledged to build (and preserve) that many units of affordable housing alone over the next 10 years [1]. About 80,000 of those will be new construction [2].

The broader picture is more vigorous. Developers applied to build 60% as much (over 50,000 units) in 2015 alone [3].

This is a political problem San Francisco has dug itself into.

[1] http://www1.nyc.gov/site/housing/index.page

[2] http://gothamist.com/2016/05/16/depends_on_what_affordable_m...

[3] https://www.buildingcongress.com/outlook/

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#18
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an interesting comparison. New York City's population density is 56% higher than San Francisco's, and the average height of a building in New York City is only 6.8 stories (in spite of skyscrapers pushing up the mean). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... http://www.sunilmishra.in/2012/07/05/average-building-height...

Do you happen to know how many units the largest residential building in NYC has? It would be interesting to know the minimum number of buildings needed to cover the 200k unit deficit. [edit] Thanks for all the replies! So it looks like we are talking about a minimum of hundreds of buildings to be torn-down and rebuilt taller. That seems unlikely to happen in SF proper.

Interesting idea. It looks like the largest in terms of number of units built in 2014-2015 in NYC was 815 units, so you would need 246 of them to get to 200000+ units.

http://therealdeal.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/NYC-Condo-...

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an interesting comparison. New York City's population density is 56% higher than San Francisco's, and the average height of a building in New York City is only 6.8 stories (in spite of skyscrapers pushing up the mean). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... http://www.sunilmishra.in/2012/07/05/average-building-height...

Do you happen to know how many units the largest residential building in NYC has? It would be interesting to know the minimum number of buildings needed to cover the 200k unit deficit. [edit] Thanks for all the replies! So it looks like we are talking about a minimum of hundreds of buildings to be torn-down and rebuilt taller. That seems unlikely to happen in SF proper.

I dunno, but the Rincon towers in SF have something like 300 units each, so you are talking about several hundred Rincon-sized buildings or a few thousand 50-100 unit buildings.

Re: Employment, construction, and the cost of San Francisco apartments

#20

Building straight into the sky is easy. You'd be amazed at how earthquake-proof skyscrapers are with modern technology. You want a challenge? Build in a city where you're required to post notice any time you cut down a tree on your own property.

i acknowledge that city ordinances can be a huge headache, but consider that trees serve more than just aesthetic purpose. They provide shade, filter particulate matter, and increase air quality for a much larger area than just 'your own property'.

This is especially important in the urban core of cities where greenery can be scarce, and mature trees even more so.

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