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What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

nytimes.com

61–67 of 67 posts

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#61
As I should have suspected from the context, this concerns Robert Gordon's epic The Rise and Fall of American Growth, which I've read and am trying to synthesize a review.

The article here suffers from much one of the book's major faults: it's an epic romp through the details of technological advance, and their impacts, both of which are admittedly interesting, but lacking in the backbone of theory and a model to explain both what technology is, specifically (one definition, from Gordon, is "the sum of our ignorance", though that requires further explanation ;-), and how it impacts everyday life.

Don't get me wrong: Gordon's grasp and exposition of history is masterful, detailed, and extensively researched. Unlike much of economics, he looks pointedly at every-day impacts, and strongly questions many (though not all) the often-questionable interpretations of economists.

I also agree strongly with Gordon's conclusion that technological progress hit an apex prior to 1920. More specifically, and Neil Irwin does a huge disservice in not mentioning this, Gordon specifically distinguishes rate of change and impacts. While technology has changed markedly in his third era (the book is divided in three parts: 1870 - 1920, 1920-1970, and 1970-2015, nearly 50 years each), the impacts have been quite limited. Little in household appurtenances, particularly kitchens, has changed since 1970, other than introduction of the microwave. Transport's pretty constant. Medicine, for all the expense poured into it, has delivered virtually nothing, particularly contrasted with 1900-1950 (and, for what it's worth, earlier). Work and manufacture has changed, but only modestly, and productivity as measured by economists (dollar output per worker hour) has increased at best modestly.

And, sorry, HN, but Gordon's quite harsh on information technology -- it delivered, somewhat, from 1994 - 2004, but little 2005 - 2015.

That's all covered in the book, and missing from Irwin's article.

What Gordon himself misses is IMO even more interesting.

His core thesis is what's called "the Solow Residual" -- what's left over in regression analysis after accounting for economic growth using capital and labour. (Gordon was a student of Robert Solow's). What bothers me, greatly, is that Gordon all-but-answers his own question -- he points at the 99% growth in worker productivity 1920-1950, and the 133% increase in horsepower and kW per worker over the same period. On numerous grounds, power makes sense to consider in transformational activity.

Gordon completely dismisses it.

Several other researchers have dug into that in depth. Robert A. Ayres (apparently it's a rule for all economists in this saga to be named "Robert") is one, there've been other analysis, including Hall and Klitgaard, and a recent item I've seen. Solow and Ayres had a correspondence according to Solow's archive at Duke University, though I don't know the upshot of it.

Another element missing from Gordon's analysis is some sort of theory of technology -- what it is, how it operates. He describes this to some extent, but it's quite insufficient. He mentions the real-world, everyday-life impacts of many early technologies, but doesn't think to reference Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, another lacking point.

Along with that is a metric of technological impact. Gordon's is GDP and especially GDP/worker. This is actually and area of some disagreement in various circles, but a concept of energy throughput has been proposed by Leslie White, known as White's Law.

I could also quibble with some economic discussions and considerations, though most are quite secondary to his point and if anything would, corrected, strengthen his basic thesis.

But yeah, today's got nothing on the 1880s, progress-wise.

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#62
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you had things like ticker tape. but there was not really any concept of store and forward like you have with texts and email. Notice how they had to tell the operator to make sure there was a clean line, then manually sync the two devices. I guess you could claim the telegraph network had something akin to store and forward, as each operator would note the message, and then relay it down the chain.

Edison's first profitable invention, in 1869, was a way to get stock tickers to sync up automatically. It was a hack (send lots of idles every once in a while to force the printing wheel to hit a stop) but it was good enough to deploy. Previous printing telegraph technology, back to 1852, required a skilled operator at the receiving end to manually sync. That was used only for main lines with heavy traffic. Howard Kr…

Thinking about it, i guess magnetic tape replaced those paper tapes for a while. Before various "solid state" solutions were worked out with enough capacity to handle the same job.

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#63
Across human history, it's probably 10,000 BC to the present era. Within that period, the sliver of time occupied by the Second Industrial Revolution, as a catalyst for accelerating growth and progress henceforth, hasn't yet been bettered by any other period for the scale of its impact.

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#64
post #22

In terms of pure impactful science I'd say 1920-1960 or so. Quantum mechanics and everything it led to (modern chemistry, in particular) is the big one, but there was also relativity, the modern evolutionary synthesis, huge advances in statistics, the math of computing, and so much more.

Relativity was complete before 1920. Special relativity in 1905 and general relativity in 1915.

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#65
post #17

Hopefully getting the Internet in the hands of many non-technical people with Smartphones and tablets will get us to another Era of Innovation. Many people started using the Internet that wouldn't have it it was only available on PCs. The "born after the iPhone" children will get old enough next decade to do their own thing and new ideas will spread :)

>Hopefully getting the Internet in the hands of many non-technical people with Smartphones and tablets will get us to another Era of Innovation...

This seems to be a fallacy. Give internet to 10 random people and 9 of them will use it for Porn and Social media. You know, instant gratification stuff.

The one guy who uses it to "expand their horizons" will find himself too alone and powerless in a culture that has gone south by the the aforementioned 9 people who wouldn't take their heads up from the social media in their mobile phones....

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#66
post #17

Hopefully getting the Internet in the hands of many non-technical people with Smartphones and tablets will get us to another Era of Innovation. Many people started using the Internet that wouldn't have it it was only available on PCs. The "born after the iPhone" children will get old enough next decade to do their own thing and new ideas will spread :)

>Hopefully getting the Internet in the hands of many non-technical people with Smartphones and tablets will get us to another Era of Innovation... This seems to be a fallacy. Give internet to 10 random people and 9 of them will use it for Porn and Social media. You know, instant gratification stuff. The one guy who uses it to "expand their horizons" will find himself too alone and powerless in a culture that has gone…

Well, but if one of 1000000 people does something on the scale of google, facebook or wikipedia, this would be enough.

With the internet, ideas scale much better.

Before smartphones, we nerdy white males made stuff.

Now the rest of the world can take over :)

Re: What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation?

#67
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Hopefully getting the Internet in the hands of many non-technical people with Smartphones and tablets will get us to another Era of Innovation... This seems to be a fallacy. Give internet to 10 random people and 9 of them will use it for Porn and Social media. You know, instant gratification stuff. The one guy who uses it to "expand their horizons" will find himself too alone and powerless in a culture that has gone…

Well, but if one of 1000000 people does something on the scale of google, facebook or wikipedia, this would be enough. With the internet, ideas scale much better. Before smartphones, we nerdy white males made stuff. Now the rest of the world can take over :)

Well, is it possible that problems solved by those things were not the real bottlenecks of real innovation.

But they took away something that had brought about innovation in the past and had a very good chance of brining it in the future....idle human thought.

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