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Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

nytimes.com

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Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#161

Post by dbenhur »

mancerayder wrote: post #92
ones_and_zeros wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You shouldn't be down voted. Context matters an incredible amount in the English language. Plus, the US doesn't really have classes the way the OP is concerned "middle class" will be interpreted. I'd be surprised if anyone misses the point of this analysis either way.

As Wittgenstein might put it, there are two language games at play here. The first one takes 'class' as defined in the (legitimate) Marxist way, used to represent the relationship to the means of production (Edit: we don't produce all that much anymore, making that definition harder to parse). The second takes it to be specifically defined as a range of income distribution. That second one is what most people typical…

> we don't produce all that much anymore

If by "we" you mean the US, this is not true. US manufacturing production was as high in 2015 as any prior year. Production took a big hit in the "great recession", it may be on the decline as percent of the total economy or as a percent of global production, but it's still a huge amount. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OUTMS

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#162

Post by Kalium »

nitrogen wrote: post #160
mason240 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What makes progressive social policies (ignoring loaded issues like reproductive options and gun control) so distasteful to some of those who would most benefit? The unsupported assumption here is that those policies would be beneficial.

Let's look at a specific policy, then, such as a universal basic income (that means no means testing, no policing of morality, no step-wise dropoffs in benefit as income changes). Most of the working class would receive the same net income, or more. There would be no more income-driven involuntary homelessness. There would be less incentive to avoid working part time because UBI benefits would still be paid. The UBI…

Often the policies ignore basic differences in expressed values. UBI is cast as a change to improve their lives. The problem is that we're talking about populations whose political memories can be neatly summarized as "Someone promised to improve my life with a policy, then things got worse".

At the core of it, they don't trust you. Nothing you can say matters after that.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#163

Post by ArkyBeagle »

nostrademons wrote: post #127
ArkyBeagle wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... which leads me to think there's a general growth-lacking/deflationary process at work. And this is due to bad monetary policy.

Not necessarily. According to a sibling commenter, upper end of the range is set at double the median income. If it's dropping, it indicates that the inflation-adjusted median income is dropping. One explanation for that is a contracting economy, but another one is simply that income is becoming more concentrated in the upper end of the distribution. Shift a large number of dollars from the bottom half of the income…

Effectively, we have two economies - the two modes ( really, complete Pareto distributions ) that seem to have come unmoored to each other.

The "upper" mode is much more ephemeral and paper-based than is the "lower" mode. It's a frothy stew of bubbly paper goodness. But it's effect on the "lower" mode is not as we would like it to be.

So we treat the "lower" mode as its own ( not quite independent but not fully coupled ) distribution, raise inflation and wait.

And although the "upper" mode does have real effects, it being more fictional than the "lower" mode means it's much more volatile and less ... real.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#164

Post by dragonwriter »

nitrogen wrote: post #160
mason240 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What makes progressive social policies (ignoring loaded issues like reproductive options and gun control) so distasteful to some of those who would most benefit? The unsupported assumption here is that those policies would be beneficial.

Let's look at a specific policy, then, such as a universal basic income (that means no means testing, no policing of morality, no step-wise dropoffs in benefit as income changes). Most of the working class would receive the same net income, or more. There would be no more income-driven involuntary homelessness. There would be less incentive to avoid working part time because UBI benefits would still be paid. The UBI…

> There would be no more income-driven involuntary homelessness.

Well, I strongly doubt that a UBI that could actually achieve that is actually sustainable in the near term, especially absent a concrete policy that prevents zoning and other related policies from being used to prevent adequate housing affordable to those made more theoretically able to afford it by the UBI from being produced.

And I'm kind of an enthusiastic backer of UBI as a general concept after spending considerable time looking into it and thinking about how to make it work; I suspect that a lot of the working class is going to be even more skeptical of "free money" promises to start with.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#165

Post by dragonwriter »

nostrademons wrote: post #127
ArkyBeagle wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... which leads me to think there's a general growth-lacking/deflationary process at work. And this is due to bad monetary policy.

Not necessarily. According to a sibling commenter, upper end of the range is set at double the median income. If it's dropping, it indicates that the inflation-adjusted median income is dropping. One explanation for that is a contracting economy, but another one is simply that income is becoming more concentrated in the upper end of the distribution. Shift a large number of dollars from the bottom half of the income…

> One explanation for that is a contracting economy, but another one is simply that income is becoming more concentrated in the upper end of the distribution.

Which is the correct explanation. See, for instance, the income distribution chart [0], from the national-level study that preceded the metro-level study referenced in the NYTimes article.

From 1970 to 2014: The share of aggregate income received by the cohort below the middle (middle, again, is 2/3 to double the median income) has gone from 10% to 9% of all income

The share received by the middle has gone from 62% to 43% of all income.

The share received by the segment above the middle has gone from 29% to 49% of all income.

[0] bottom of the two here: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middl...

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#166

Post by dragonwriter »

ArkyBeagle wrote: post #119
nostrademons wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It went down: $135K in 2000 => $124K in 2014.

... which leads me to think there's a general growth-lacking/deflationary process at work. And this is due to bad monetary policy.

Nope GDP per capita grew between 2000 and 2014, (GDP per capita should roughly parallel mean income, but median income can go down when the mean is going up if a greater share ends up at the top of the distribution.)

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#167

Post by true_religion »

lliamander wrote: post #126
ArkyBeagle wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That book is so totally "OMG, what's WRONG with those people???" Emphasis "those people." While that's one interpretation, there's Long been conflict in the US on the rural-urban axis - see Andrew Jackson's vision versus Alexander Hamilton's vision Race is only useful in this sort of thing as a predictor of rough economic class, and even then it's less than useful. IOW, I don't think it's specifically race. A better…

> That book is so totally "OMG, what's WRONG with those people???" Emphasis "those people." Indeed. Although I am not (currently) among the rural poor, I can't imagine ever trusting someone who openly refers to me or mine as "those people".

I'm curious. This is a question that's plagued me my entire adult life. Why are many people against being called "those people" or "these people"? Is it a connotation thing---as in previously someone trying to marginalize a population would refer to them casually as "those people"?

Or is there some deeper insult that I am missing due to not having experience of it?

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#168

Post by ArkyBeagle »

true_religion wrote: post #167
lliamander wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That book is so totally "OMG, what's WRONG with those people???" Emphasis "those people." Indeed. Although I am not (currently) among the rural poor, I can't imagine ever trusting someone who openly refers to me or mine as "those people".

I'm curious. This is a question that's plagued me my entire adult life. Why are many people against being called "those people" or "these people"? Is it a connotation thing---as in previously someone trying to marginalize a population would refer to them casually as "those people"? Or is there some deeper insult that I am missing due to not having experience of it?

It fairly screams "Jungian Other" doesn't it?

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#169

Post by escape_plan »

stanmancan wrote: post #132
tostitos1979 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious what part of BC you are in? My wife and I had dreams to move to Vancouver one day but seems impossible given that we just had a baby, and housing prices. We looked at Surry but seems a bit gritty and at the border of affordability. We're sick of Toronto. The traffic, the cost of houses and the weather all suck (TO has fantastic ethnic diversity and all our family lives there). We have friends buying run-down…

Real close to Surrey actually, a few blocks from the border. Anywhere in the Lower Mainland is a really beautiful place to live, and lots to do outdoors if you're into that. Surrey had a bad reputation but it's mostly deserved. As usual, the vast majority of people are totally normal citizens, but there's plenty of gang violence. Last I read there had been 36 gang shootings in 2016 alone (Here's a map: http://bc.ctvn…

My wife spent 10 years in Surrey before moving in with me. We are thinking of moving to Canada, currently living in Bay Area, myself a developer for last 5+ years, earning decently but just tired of the Silicon-Valley rat race (commute, real-estate ownership and long term family settlement) and the weird systems here (immigration [being affected] + general political sentiment[long term, not currently affected]), and not able to decide whether to go to Vancouver or TO or any other option? Most likely, I will be working remotely for the same company and making trips every month or two when I move. Do you mind if you share any advice you might have? Thanks!

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#170

Post by ap22213 »

nitrogen wrote: post #98
qsymmachus wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a grain of truth to this, but it's a frankly smug attitude. It's a bit of a hand wave ("because racism") that allows urban elites like you and me to avoid asking what it is about _us_ and our politics that many white working class people find so repulsive.

So let's ask the question, then. What makes progressive social policies (ignoring loaded issues like reproductive options and gun control) so distasteful to some of those who would most benefit? I'll provide a starting hypothesis for discussion's sake: maybe urban disdain for the suburban and rural lifestyles (exemplified by complaints about "subsidizing" rural areas) turns people off before they hear the good ideas?…

I don't mind subsidizing the rural areas (the fact is that a great majority of my state and county taxes do go to help those areas). If they need the help, I'm happy to help. I just find the situation a bit ironic given the rhetoric (and political anger) that is repaid.
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