Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking • Hacker News Board

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#141

Post by Retric » Fri, May 13, 2016, 6:42 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #124

Retric wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a useless definition in terms of policy. We don't care which legal profession people have. We care about the value they produce and the pay they receive. Class has vastly different meanings in the US or India etc. As long as the meaning was clear that should be enough for any reasonable person. Especially when it's a very common definition. Whining about it is little better than trolling. PS: The original def…

> That is a useless definition in terms of policy. We don't care which legal profession people have. I disagree that its useless in terms of policy, and it has nothing to do with which legal profession people have (no matter what work you do, if you make most of your support from working for someone else, you are working class; if you are supported by a mix of your own capital and your own labor, with neither being o…

Calling a CFO at a Fortune 500 company 'working class' because they work for someone else is going to raise eyebrows.

You can argue about educational capital, but learning to be a truck driver and maintaining a clean record is capital in the same way as being an MD is capital, but the scale is vastly different.

The wider problem with this standpoint in the modern US is a 'working class' truck driver over their lifetime may make significantly more money from capital via 401k and home ownership than directly working. All it takes is someone living somewhat below their means and time to let compound interest takes off. However, the benefit more from policy's that help at the start than lower taxes late in life.

An 80 year old who owns their home and has 2.5 million in the bank is qualitatively very different than a 22 year old with 2.5 million in the bank and their own home. Most obviously future returns +/- 3% mean little to the 80 year old and are vital to the 22 year old.

PS: Some people add in a managerial class who make money from other peoples capital. But again scale is important, and pay is a huge indicator about the kinds of leverage you have. Managers making 30k vs 30m are worlds apart.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#142

Post by AKrumbach » Fri, May 13, 2016, 6:54 PM UTC

nitrogen wrote: post #98

qsymmachus wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a grain of truth to this, but it's a frankly smug attitude. It's a bit of a hand wave ("because racism") that allows urban elites like you and me to avoid asking what it is about _us_ and our politics that many white working class people find so repulsive.

So let's ask the question, then. What makes progressive social policies (ignoring loaded issues like reproductive options and gun control) so distasteful to some of those who would most benefit? I'll provide a starting hypothesis for discussion's sake: maybe urban disdain for the suburban and rural lifestyles (exemplified by complaints about "subsidizing" rural areas) turns people off before they hear the good ideas?…

> What makes progressive social policies (ignoring loaded issues like reproductive options and gun control) so distasteful to some of those who would most benefit?

I'm not going to claim to answer for anybody but myself -- in large part because (a) I'm an urbanite too and (b) my politics can be least inaccurately described as "anarchist" -- but to me, this question really comes down to one point: respect/maturity.

Much of the modern progressive social policy package sounds to me like somebody saying "Tsk tsk, daddy's little princess deserves better! You sit back, I'll deal with this!" (Wages too low? Have a horrid health insurance plan that doesn't cover what you need? Housing in short supply? Don't fret, Just vote Progressive! We can legislate your woes away!)

That attitude is OK if "princess" is only 8 years old -- but only because a child is not mature enough to make many decisions, nor expected to be capable of executing on them. Should the target of this attitude be 18, it becomes mildly condescending since "princess" is on the verge of being a legal adult. However, should this be directed toward someone who is 28 or 38 [as all universal government policy inevitably must], the concern arises that whomever carries this attitude will never be treating "princess" like a capable, autonomous adult peer.

You may find concern and compassion in the progressive social agenda, but all I will ever perceive is condescension and thinly-disguised contempt.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#143

Post by astazangasta » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:00 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #120

astazangasta wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take this with a grain of salt. The definition of "middle income" is flexible. For example, in the Pew analysis "middle income" is defined as between $45,115-$135,346 in 2013-2014 dollars for the year 2000, but as between $41,641-$124,924 for the year 2014. Given this difference it's unsurprising the Pew analysis finds the upper class grew, but since the definition shifts we should be suspicious of the meaning of thi…

> The definition of "middle income" is flexible. The definition used is consistent: an household income of 2/3 to double to the national median income. The range shifts because the median income (even in inflation-adjusted terms dollars) shifts over time. Aside from the complaints I've made about conflation of class and income elsewhere in this thread, the Pew definition is a reasonable and consistent way of defining…

Do you think this is intended to summarize the shift in median income (generally downward since 1997)? If so, why not just discuss that? If not, the effects of that shift are surely confounding whatever it is they ARE trying to summarize (some nebulous quantity called "the middle class").

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#144

Post by tostitos1979 » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:02 PM UTC

pasquinelli wrote: post #133

tostitos1979 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing is a good equalizer. The average detached home in Toronto is 1.2 million dollars. The middle class should be able to afford a home, I think. Therefore, the parent is correct in his/her observation. The inflation numbers we have are grossly inaccurate. If we take the price of housing into account as we adjust incomes, the cut off for the middle class is probably 250-300K.

i disagree that the middle class should be able to afford to buy a home, necessarily. that's completely dependent on the housing market in their area. is there a crisis of homeless middle class people? if not, then they aren't being priced out of a place to live, but out of owning a house. i've never considered the middle class as excluding renters.

IMHO, we're in exceptional times. Taxes are generally based on income but property rents are a function of property prices. I've had a bunch of Uber drivers claim they are struggling to make ends meet in the Bay area - yet they have houses worth over a million bucks. Income-wise, these people are blue-color workers but have insane assets simply because they were in the right place at the right time (good for them!). Meanwhile, I know physicians moving out of places like the Bay and NYC because they cannot afford the rent. Things are messed up and no one at the helm seems to care.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#145

Post by Retric » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:03 PM UTC

rhino369 wrote: post #129

Retric wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a useless definition in terms of policy. We don't care which legal profession people have. We care about the value they produce and the pay they receive. Class has vastly different meanings in the US or India etc. As long as the meaning was clear that should be enough for any reasonable person. Especially when it's a very common definition. Whining about it is little better than trolling. PS: The original def…

It doesn't really matter what the reasonable definition is because the commonly used definition is what matters for political discourse. Beyond that there are social aspects to class. The idea that America has a great big class that covers a wide of income levels is key to understanding the culture. I think it's a big part of why America tends to reject a large welfare state. Our middle class doesn't see itself as a…

The US has well over 60 million people reviving social welfare. So, I don't think we have really rejected the welfare state.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/icpGraph.html

Even if you drop that to Disabled workers, Survivors, and Dependents that's ~17 million before looking at food-stamps and HUD ect. Include things like subsidized loans and you can get crazy numbers.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#146

Post by tmaly » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:09 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #16

The article makes the extremely common media error (which is also present in the source research, or at least the press release from Pew announcing it -- the article uses "class" pretty exclusively, the Pew release uses "class" in the headline and much of the body, but also uses "income tier" in some places) of conflating income (which is simply a measure of the amount of money received per year) with class (which is…

the term "Middle class" is one of the most abused terms by politicians and media alike.

I think we need a more refined term that makes adjustments for cost of living. A house in SF is a lot more than one in the Midwest

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#147

Post by tostitos1979 » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:09 PM UTC

monknomo wrote: post #131

tostitos1979 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well .. 18.5K goes into the 401K, leaving 57K. Even if we saved 50% of what we earn, we'll barely be able to save 250K over a decade. Given the pace of house price increases, it seems like a hopeless situation :(

At the end of your 40 year career, with your numbers, not accounting for inflation, raises or the potential for investing, you would have $1.14 million in cash and $740k in 401k principal. At the end of most people's career they have social security... I'd call it pretty well off for having done nothing with the money. Retire to Nebraska, live like a king.

Too bad I'm in my late 30s. Education cost a lot of time, money, and made me delay purchasing a house until it was too late.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#148

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:10 PM UTC

astazangasta wrote: post #143

dragonwriter wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The definition of "middle income" is flexible. The definition used is consistent: an household income of 2/3 to double to the national median income. The range shifts because the median income (even in inflation-adjusted terms dollars) shifts over time. Aside from the complaints I've made about conflation of class and income elsewhere in this thread, the Pew definition is a reasonable and consistent way of defining…

Do you think this is intended to summarize the shift in median income (generally downward since 1997)? If so, why not just discuss that? If not, the effects of that shift are surely confounding whatever it is they ARE trying to summarize (some nebulous quantity called "the middle class").

> Do you think this is intended to summarize the shift in median income (generally downward since 1997)?

No, its intended to discuss the move of the income distribution to be less-tightly clustered around the median with more at the extremes (the particular release the NYT article is about talks about the by-metro-area effects of this, but the broader trend is succinctly illustrated in this graphic [0] from the December 2015 national-level report which preceded the metro-area-level one the article is based on.)

[0] http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middl...

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#149

Post by zanny » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:10 PM UTC

zeveb wrote: post #125

xxpor wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anywhere you would consider going there will be some government trying to dictate how you live your life and take a portion of your livelihood, and anywhere that you might avoid that you are usually risking that in conjunction with a humvee full of armed militants storming your home and murdering you. It's almost like the two are related!

I can't find the exact quote, but there's one floating about how until about 1910 the most government that average Englishman (outside of London) would experience was the post office. 1890 rural England isn't particularly known for being a lawless hellhole.

Places where nobody lives are usually not conducive to marauding bands of malcontents. Those almost always require some support structure behind them, because if you just pillage and burn you have no reliable source of food or prosperity.

There is an explicit reason why the places people would "disappear to" like South / Central America, central Asia, or Africa, are all predominantly totalitarian states. You are just, in such places, hoping to fly under the radar and be the one mouse not to be pounced on by the lion destroying everything.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#150

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, May 13, 2016, 7:17 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #141

dragonwriter wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is a useless definition in terms of policy. We don't care which legal profession people have. I disagree that its useless in terms of policy, and it has nothing to do with which legal profession people have (no matter what work you do, if you make most of your support from working for someone else, you are working class; if you are supported by a mix of your own capital and your own labor, with neither being o…

Calling a CFO at a Fortune 500 company 'working class' because they work for someone else is going to raise eyebrows. You can argue about educational capital, but learning to be a truck driver and maintaining a clean record is capital in the same way as being an MD is capital, but the scale is vastly different. The wider problem with this standpoint in the modern US is a 'working class' truck driver over their lifeti…

> Calling a CFO at a Fortune 500 company 'working class' because they work for someone else is going to raise eyebrows.

Most C-levels at Fortune 500 companies have substantial capital stores which are an important part of their overall support (even if they are not being drawn down regularly, but instead being grown for retirement or planned future use, or as inheritance) and are, in terms of the traditional capitalist class structure, either on the upper end of the middle class or outright capitalists.

There might be some living paycheck-to-paycheck without substantial personal capital reserves, but they would be exceptional.