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Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

nytimes.com

51–60 of 180 posts

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think it matters a lot. every few thousand you move that line in either direction is going to make a large direct impact on the apparent 'growth' or 'decline' on either side of it.

The only number that actually matters here is "median household income". The distance away on both sides doesn't matter, because the article is analyzing movement away from the center. Does it matter if you're capturing the middle 20% or the middle 60% of the country? Not really. There are fewer people in the "middle", for some definition of middle.

> Does it matter if you're capturing the middle 20% or the middle 60% of the country? Not really.

Its actually capturing a multiplier below and above the median. If it was capturing a fixed percentage in the middle, then the share in the "middle class" could not change over time...

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#52

HN Title (currently "The Middle Class is Shrinking") misrepresents the title and focus of the article (source title is "Where the Middle Class is Shrinking"). Posting this separately from response on the substance of the source article (because hopefully it will be corrected and this will be come irrelevant.) EDIT: Oddly, the current HN Title is closer to the focus of an earlier Pew release [0] that is a predecessor…

Ok, we added 'where'.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#53
post #9

In some places the middle class is losing pop to the upper class, in others it's losing pop to the lower class. It's also a moving target. It's based on relative income rather than a set point of achievements (ability to send offspring to college/uni). On the other hand we can infer that it's not as easy as it once was to become middle class through union/blue collar jobs, except in some government spheres. Beset by…

Or maybe a small political movement.

Much of our family traces back to the Midwest or southern New England factory towns. It's been quite astonishing seeing the professional and geographic migrations that happen as a new generation comes of age.

The starting point is just as described: Rust Belt parents with fraying big-company jobs that were predicated on medium incomes, mid-level skills and high expected levels of job security.

The next generation is ending up in Seattle or North Carolina. Some are going to Colorado, California or Washington DC. They aren't staying in their parents' communities. They're switching employers more, and they're ending up in fluid fields like IT security, consulting, social services, graphic design, etc. where you're expected to fine-tune your career every few years.

Yeah, the older generation is unhappy and ready to vote for politicians who engage with them. But the next generation isn't asking government to make societal change stop. They just want a fair shot at whatever new opportunities come along (and some dreamy stuff about making college both cheaper, easier and more useful - all at once.)

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#55
Ugh - while I agree with the conclusion, the statistical definitions here don't have any connection with reality.

$125,000 is "upper class", you say, regardless of location?

Let's translate that into the real world, shall we?

$125,000 Household Income....

Who makes it:

- IT manager or Senior Dev with stay at home spouse

- Mid-level Dev ($90K) married to a K-12 teacher ($40K)

- Two junior software developers (co-habituating)

Location matters, incidentally - if you're in CA / NY / Northeast Coast, this is barely enough to buy a house (and I hope you like driving / riding the train for a few hours).

A better analysis would be to draw the line somewhere in the the $200,000 - $500,000 range (based on salary + bonus, no equity boost) and include passive income. This is the point where you get a meaningful change in social options from the income (eg. top tier housing, private schools, accredited investor status, second home, ample emergency funds, etc.). Also incorporate some view of regional costs - since the "Social Freedom" point is much higher in NY / CA than in rural Alabama.

Sad to say, there are many areas of the country where living on $125,000 still definitely sucks.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#56
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a town in the US where the median household income is roughly $36k and the median household size is 3.9. Most adults own their home here. I know most HN people tend to see urban/suburban areas as the only habitable zones, but come on - you are definitely living high on the hog, it's just hard to see because you choose a location and lifestyle with very high expenses.

That's true, but what do you do for a living? I think it'd be significantly harder to find a job as a developer in the middle of nowhere, it's even hard to find an interesting job in the suburbs IME.

I'm a 60% developer / 40% small team lead. Do it all remotely with trips to California every two months or so.

Plenty of positions are available for remote workers. From what I've seen, it's not the employers, but rather the employees. For some reason, the convenience and distractions of cities are lifestyle requirements, not employment requirements. Which is fine, but I take issue with the widespread delusion that lifestyle expenses are not a choice, especially for cognitive workers like developers, designers, etc.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#57

Ugh - while I agree with the conclusion, the statistical definitions here don't have any connection with reality. $125,000 is "upper class", you say, regardless of location? Let's translate that into the real world, shall we? $125,000 Household Income.... Who makes it: - IT manager or Senior Dev with stay at home spouse - Mid-level Dev ($90K) married to a K-12 teacher ($40K) - Two junior software developers (co-habit…

> $125,000 is "upper class", you say, regardless of location?

If you click through to the source report, the locality-based breakdowns are, in fact, based on income criteria adjusted from the national definition using metro-area-specific cost of living.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#58
That the income distribution is shrinking in the middle distribution of the population of the U.S. is a critical data trend with a number of unpleasant implications.

From an ideological perspective, it damages the traditional worship of hard work and the idealization of middle class life. Idealistic visions (as reflected from the movies, the shows, the social policy of the era around the middle of the 20th century pretty much up until the end of it) showed the suburban life, the housewife, the house, the two car garage. It's easy to be politically complacent, knowing you're in the country that's number one, when those things are what you can realistically strive for. Laissez-faire capitalism was always sold as being more fair than the evil 'socialist' Europe - and worse - that was further east. Because even when you were low, you could feel comfortable about bettering your lot ("my grandfather came here with nothing..."). Now the stats are pointing away from that reality.

Economically it's pretty iffy, given that 80+% of the American GDP is the services sector, which has a large component of dependency on spending power. Retail alone is what, 5-6% of GDP, and then you have entertainment, real estate, and much else that depends on money being spent by people not on the very top.

Real estate's an interesting one. Another piece of the Dream that made us the greatest country, as we were told. That's another trend that the current generation faces that was not faced in the 1950's: the ratio of median income to median housing costs.

A lot of us here are in IT (or Law or other professions that I have noticed), and in many ways we're very lucky, even if we did work hard to get to where we are, since we're further up the curve and don't face the same exposure. In the U.S. health care costs and educational costs have also gone up well above the income increases, adding further to the discontentment.

Meanwhile, the political world has gone mad. We're now back to identity politics, with demagogues on both sides of the spectrum. Any explanation about the economic underlying conditions? Nope, instead we talk about immigrants, or X racial privilege, or gender/racial identity in the boardrooms, or X foreign power.

New thread suggestion: "Ask HN: Which remote island can I escape to and live comfortably and cheaply?"

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#59
post #10

i'm not sure $125k/year for a family of 3 should really be considered 'upper class'. is 2 working parents barely making 60k each really upper class? i would like to see these numbers for 4x or 5x the median (roughly $250k/year). to me that's really where the delta in income starts to become apparent as manifested in lifestyle choices and accumulated wealth. edit: okay, reading the actual research reveals that pew cal…

We should re-evaluate the class distinctions. Where does upper class start? Upper class to me should feel like upper class. It needs to be as you suggested at 4x or 5x the median income for the area. I think upper class is the ability to afford, without undue stress, an ample house and two car payments while still going to get manicures.

That's a pretty vague definition.

Houses, cars and even food expenditures can easily vary by a factor of 3-4 even within a relatively small area based on individual preferences and habits.

What is an "ample" house?

Define your terms.

Re: Where the Middle Class Is Shrinking

#60

Ugh - while I agree with the conclusion, the statistical definitions here don't have any connection with reality. $125,000 is "upper class", you say, regardless of location? Let's translate that into the real world, shall we? $125,000 Household Income.... Who makes it: - IT manager or Senior Dev with stay at home spouse - Mid-level Dev ($90K) married to a K-12 teacher ($40K) - Two junior software developers (co-habit…

> $125,000 is "upper class", you say, regardless of location? If you click through to the source report, the locality-based breakdowns are, in fact, based on income criteria adjusted from the national definition using metro-area-specific cost of living.

Thank you - missed that. The $125,000 line still doesn't make sense though, even in flyover country (where I live). That's barely enough to buy a 2nd/3rd tier home in a strong school district where I live. Would think that easy access to good schools and good housing are table-stakes for being "upper class".
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