Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#91

Post by luketych » Sat, May 07, 2016, 6:49 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #78

pbreit wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, et…

Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in…

Does that include the episode on Top Gear that was scripted into breaking their Tesla down in the middle of a test run?

According to your logic, 3 percent of scientists deny global warming, so that is a statistic we should take seriously as well. I don't care what denialists say because I can appreciate the fundamental science behind global warming.

You seem to lack the vision to see that simplicity in design always wins out. It does so in nature, and it will do so in our automobile engines long-term.

You are suffering from an extreme case of cognitive dissonance my friend.

In a world of 7 Billion people, every anecdote has become a statistic. Figure it out or get left behind.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#92

Post by chambo622 » Sat, May 07, 2016, 6:49 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #80

qaq wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of Louis CK rant "..cause now we live in, in an amazing, amazing world and it's wasted on the, on the crappiest generation of just spoiled idiots...". The dude disrupted 3 major industries and all we can do is complain that he is not hitting ship dates or volume targets let's just stone him for this horrible transgression.

The issue is that people will jump ship especially since the reservation fee is refundable. By 2018-19 other manufacturers will have alternative electric vehicles ready to ship.

It's been years and there is no credible competitor to the Model S. Maybe it will be different with the Model 3, but until an equivalent car is on the road I'm not sure I agree with your statement. The Bolt - a nice car, and I've test driven it - is just so clearly sub-par compared to what Tesla is aiming for with the Model 3 that I would not consider it a true alternative.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#93

Post by [deleted] » Sat, May 07, 2016, 6:52 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #90

abalone wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

> That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to th…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#94

Post by baddox » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:00 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #90

abalone wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

> That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to th…

No, it's still anecdotal evidence unless you actually have a meaningful statistic gathered through scientific inquiry. If you have just heard several people complain about failures, that's anecdotal evidence. After all, that is precisely the definition of "anecdotal evidence."

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#95

Post by pbreit » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:01 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #90

abalone wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

> That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to th…

Tesla reliability not unlike other performance vehicles that are version 3, 4 or 20. That tesla has achieved what it has on v1 is amazing.

Consumer Reports: "The Tesla wasn’t the only high-performance vehicle that fell below average in reliability. Others include the BMW X5 and 5 Series, and the Chevrolet Corvette."

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#96

Post by Animats » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:09 PM UTC

Tesla's two top manufacturing execs quit just before Musk announced that he wanted volume production of the Model 3 in 2018 instead of 2020. You can imagine the discussions that went on. Perhaps in time details will surface.

Tesla now faces transitioning from a low-volume high-margin manufacturer to a high-volume low-margin manufacturer. That's hard. HP, IBM, and Xerox tried that, and didn't do too well; all eventually exited the low end and downsized. Even Intel is exiting the low end; they're giving up on the tablet and phone market, as a YC article pointed out a few days ago.

Tesla is trying for good, fast, and cheap at the same time. Tesla's track record is that they can do "good", but late and at a high price. (Space-X has "good" and "cheap", but is about two years behind announced schedules. Their competition is even slower, so that's OK.)

Tesla looks like they're doing a good job of manufacturing, but their Fremont plant has 3,000 employees for 50,000 cars a year. That's 125 labor hours per car. They can't make a $35K price point with that. The big manufacturers are in the 15-30 hour range.[1] That's the big problem. Tesla needs to learn how to reach Toyota levels of production efficiency, and they have a long way to go.

Making 500,000 cars a year isn't in itself an obstacle. The Mercedes A-class production line cycles every 40 seconds. That's 720 cars per shift. If that line ran 2 8-hour shifts (you need a shift for maintenance) and 7 days a week, it could build over 500,000 cars in a year. That's just one production line.

It's getting that production line built, working, thoroughly debugged, and running at a low labor cost that takes some time. Tesla is going to need people who've done that before.

[1] http://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA2018861.PDF

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#97

Post by icebraining » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:12 PM UTC

PantaloonFlames wrote: post #85

icebraining wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.

> you can simply replace the battery for a full one. I don't think so. The Tesla Model S batteries are everywhere through the chassis. There is no single "battery" to replace. It would be major surgery to swap batteries - you'd have to remove the passenger compartment from the lower frame. The car is not designed for that form of "refueling".

They did a live demo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY

Here's a closeup video where you can see the battery pack being lowered and another being pushed into place:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlaQuKk9bFg

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#98

Post by NotSammyHagar » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:12 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #78

pbreit wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, et…

Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in…

In the early days of Tesla Model S, they strived to get people back on the road quickly, and they replaced entire subsystems when they didn't really need to. If you search the news group "tesla motors club", you'll find discussion of how telsa found a number of tiny tweaks that they could use to adjust some of these minor issues. They were not drive train failures really. I have driven about 40k miles, no drive train failures (anecodotal, blah blah).

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#99

Post by NotSammyHagar » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:14 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #90

abalone wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.

> That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to th…

Tesla's are generally reliably. I bought an original one in 2012, then I upgraded to AWD when that came out. Never had a problem other than "slight amount of moisture in my tail light" which they fixed. There have been a number of reporters who appear to have an anti-tesla bias, notable the NY Times report Broder. His name has become an adjective ("That guy brodered you"). They are physical objects, they can fail of course, but generally they are very reliable, and in my experience owning them over 4 years, have been without issue.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#100

Post by NotSammyHagar » Sat, May 07, 2016, 7:16 PM UTC

PantaloonFlames wrote: post #83

stupidcar wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?

Spoken like a true believer. 600 charging stations worldwide, eh? There are probably 600 gasoline stations in my metro area. Therefore, emphatically Yes, it's "largely true" that there is no charging infrastructure. All of the things people have cited as challenges for EVs are still true: - limited charging infrastructure - limited range - limited data on longevity (look at Leaf's battery life) The range issue may be…

There are 600 "super chargers". They are 100k+ regular high powered chargers. At my office alone there are 20 charging stations, including j1772 and high powered (40 amp) outlets.