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GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

givedirectly.org

201–210 of 218 posts

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are poor people supposed to find innovative solutions to their problems and elect governments that create sustainable wealth while they're steeped in desperate poverty? I believe that education is the tip of the spear, but are there any examples where a poor majority has pulled itself up by its bootstraps?

Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Economies with strategically located container shipping ports developed via protectionist trade policies.

These economies were 'allowed' to develop into rich industrial economies was because America provided privileged access to the US domestic markets in spite of their protectionist policies.

They allowed that because they saw the value of having these countries developed into 'westernized' bulwarks against the USSR's sphere of influence.

They could all easily have remained poor under different circumstances.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan.

And if you look at what has significance here: it's about free trade and predictable government. Not really freedom or democracy. People's Republic of China has followed. India, not quite.

There's nothing free about Chinese trade.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#203
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how the parent comment is describing mercantilist development. My understanding is that mercantilist development implies that the subservient state is developed as an income source for the dominant state. Although traditional development may not be effective, it surely isn't meant to extract resources.

"Dumping" is a mercantilist theory; other schools of economics view the same phenomenon as a gift or subsidy (for the recipient). Bastiat wrote a famous criticism of proponents of "anti-dumping".[1] [1] http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html

Every criticism of anti-dumping (bastiat's included) makes one or more of the same three mistakes:

A) industrial comparative advantage is built up in the short run rather than over a period of many decades.

B) that having natural resource comparative advantage is every bit as good as having industrial comparative advantage (see Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc. and the 'resource curse').

C) That industrial comparative advantage just appears randomly out of nowhere rather than (as is historically verified), being developed via protectionist trade policies and infrastructural development.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if you look at what has significance here: it's about free trade and predictable government. Not really freedom or democracy. People's Republic of China has followed. India, not quite.

There's nothing free about Chinese trade.

It's a lot more free than it was until late 1970's and China has got tremendously richer as a consequence.

Nor is South Korea a model of freedom; it was authoritarian, it was and still is protectionist. But it did integrate to world economy. Compare it to North Korea, which started off as equally poor, and which has real, concrete, deadly famines in recent memory.

Same applies to R.O.C. Taiwan; autocratic, even corrupt, but reached out to world market (and as a consequence forced the mainland China to follow).

Singapore and Hong Kong: very free trade all the time, and way ahead of others in the region.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your government is already vestigial, I'm sorry to say. Giving aid is the worst thing possible if its given to the state. But giving it to the citizens is perhaps better, because they can directly improve their lives by investing in their children, in better tools, and in things like cattle that can directly generate sustainable income. Free money won't destroy your society. It's how that free money comes into your s…

It's unclear what the effects of a basic income would be in an undeveloped country. For example, if a poorer country raised minimum wage too much it could destroy the economy whereas the same raise in a more developed country will have better short term effects. This could end up being unethical economic experimentation.

> It's unclear what the effects of a basic income would be in an undeveloped country.

This is true, but given the evidence we do have (GiveDirectly's previous programs and previous basic income programs in developed countries) I see no reason to believe the effects will be anything but positive.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing free about Chinese trade.

It's a lot more free than it was until late 1970's and China has got tremendously richer as a consequence. Nor is South Korea a model of freedom; it was authoritarian, it was and still is protectionist. But it did integrate to world economy. Compare it to North Korea, which started off as equally poor, and which has real, concrete, deadly famines in recent memory. Same applies to R.O.C. Taiwan; autocratic, even corru…

All of those countries enacted protectionist trade policies. Singapore/HK tended not to target specific industries but they suppressed the value of their currencies by loading up on US treasuries (their small size made this easy).

In all of those cases those countries were given tacit approval by the US to enact protectionist trading policies and yet maintain their access to US markets.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot more free than it was until late 1970's and China has got tremendously richer as a consequence. Nor is South Korea a model of freedom; it was authoritarian, it was and still is protectionist. But it did integrate to world economy. Compare it to North Korea, which started off as equally poor, and which has real, concrete, deadly famines in recent memory. Same applies to R.O.C. Taiwan; autocratic, even corru…

All of those countries enacted protectionist trade policies. Singapore/HK tended not to target specific industries but they suppressed the value of their currencies by loading up on US treasuries (their small size made this easy). In all of those cases those countries were given tacit approval by the US to enact protectionist trading policies and yet maintain their access to US markets.

Protectionism and freedom are not absolute. Yes, those countries as well as the United States also engages in lots of protectionist policies.

However, the mentioned countries integrated more to world trade then most other countries in their region, and as a result they are now among the most developed.

Compare South Korea and North Korea, compare Taiwan R.O.C. to P.R.China prior to impacts of Deng's policy change, compare China and India.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#208

The study won't be valid unless they wait at least 2 generations after UBI is implemented. People born before UBI grew up with the scarcity on their minds, shaping the way they act with UBI. People born right after UBI is implemented will be biased by parents who grew up wirh scarcity, like the children of American immigrants. The study can only be valid when the parents of the person to be observed has UBI for their…

UBI doesn't eliminate scarcity, so that whole argument is grounded in a false premise.

Put differently, people train their work ethic in an environment that does not include UBI. It will take 2 generations after UBI is implemented for this bias to mostly disappear (although there might still be a few lingering effects that converge to 0 as time goes on).

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What, people are going to stop wanting luxuries? Yes, check out /r/financialindependence There's thousands of people living frugally to retire early with ~1-2 million which is basically UBI over a lifetime

Wanting to be financially independent doesn't necessarily mean you want to completely stop working. It just means you want to choose how you spend your time.

The point is if you sum up what people would want to do with their time, there's no reason to expect that in any way corresponds with what the allocation of resources should be to keep the engines of the economy moving / achieve maximal societal benefit / whatever. It's a classic tragedy of the commons situation.

Re: GiveDirectly Planning to Give $30M in Basic Income to East Africa

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile, basic income puts more money in the pockets of consumers, creating more market opportunities I worry that it would be a lot worse than that - that we could create a class of non-workers and workers. Some products would only be affordable to workers and if, like you're saying, those workers are only those working high paying jobs, this is probably how it'd work out. It could perpetually shrink the labor f…

> I worry that it would be a lot worse than that - that we could create a class of non-workers and workers. UBI is intended to alleviate the problem with means-tested social welfare programs in doing that by reducing the disincentive to taking action which would produce additional income faced by those on means-tested benefits where any additional income results in substantial (sometimes even dollar-for-dollar or gre…

Indexing UBI to a revenue stream is a bad idea because the revenue will tend to swing up and down in sync with economic cycles, making bubbles frothier and recessions worse. Constant spending by contrast acts more like an automatic stabilizer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_stabilizer
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