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Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

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Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#41

Post by xyience »

no1youknowz wrote: post #9
ck2 wrote: post #3

There is no shortage of lithium, even the USA has lots of it (owned by Canadian companies). It's just they don't want to mine it until the price is much higher. Kind of like oil vs gas prices. But I am curious to see what the next level beyond lithium is for compact power storage. Lithium can't be the end of the line.

Where are we with the next-gen battery tech? It's like every 5 years we see some research lab announce a breakthrough but as if yet no real progress. You would have thought it would be a priority for Musk to research next-gen batteries in a really serious way.

Musk commented recently that he is indeed keeping a sharp eye on new-gen batteries, but nothing looks good for business use in the near-term horizon.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#42

Post by dv_dt »

hinkley wrote: post #24
mtgx wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is just another variation of something he's said since he announced the Gigafactory - "We'll produce more than the entire world's capacity of batteries."

And I'm still trying to figure out why everyone thinks this is a big deal. Lots and lots and lots of companies end up at some point representing 50% of all sales, products, or activity in their market. Hell, even Starbucks was opening coffee shops so fast they were targeting owning half of all coffee shops on the planet. If he said he needed to quadruple the world output, I might furrow a brow. If he said he needed 8…

People are trying to talk up existing investments somewhere in the lithium chain, or trying to get investments for somewhere in that chain; or if you like tinfoil hats, fossil fuel interests are trying to inject uncertainty into the growth of electric cars.

I think the last possibility is probably silly because available Lithium resources will likely behave similarly to other extracted commodities such as oil - with the difference that you can likely recycle lithium out of expended batteries.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#43

Post by sqeaky »

no1youknowz wrote: post #9
ck2 wrote: post #3

There is no shortage of lithium, even the USA has lots of it (owned by Canadian companies). It's just they don't want to mine it until the price is much higher. Kind of like oil vs gas prices. But I am curious to see what the next level beyond lithium is for compact power storage. Lithium can't be the end of the line.

Where are we with the next-gen battery tech? It's like every 5 years we see some research lab announce a breakthrough but as if yet no real progress. You would have thought it would be a priority for Musk to research next-gen batteries in a really serious way.

> no real progress

My cell phone consumes more power and stays on longer than my first phone is that not progress?

I think it comes in slow increments and noticing a 5% year on year increase in battery life is lost in the noise of devices that can consume half or double the amount of energy.

As for how easy it is to lose the battery gains in noise. Many stock cell phones can have their battery life extended by half again by removing all the vendor bloatware.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#45

Post by creshal »

tkahnoski wrote: post #21
mtgx wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is just another variation of something he's said since he announced the Gigafactory - "We'll produce more than the entire world's capacity of batteries."

It's fascinating to read some of the other related articles on the Internet. There's a lot investment analysis going into whether the EV market will cause a "Peak Lithium" like "Peak Oil". It could happen, however given how Tesla has already made moves to create a giga-factory to avoid "Peak Battery" pricing they likely already have a supply solution in mind.

> will cause a "Peak Lithium" like "Peak Oil".

So a pointless hype bubble?

As long as there's demand and money to back up that demand, we'll find a way to make more of whatever you want.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#46

Post by adventured »

mchannon wrote: post #14

Lithium doesn't weigh much of anything (even compared to oil), so a ton of Lithium is a LOT of lithium. Since as a commodity it's never traded in metallic form (too hazardous and energy-intensive to get it there, and not much market for straight metal, even as an input to battery production). It tends to be traded as carbonate, so a ton of lithium carbonate still has a very small amount of lithium in it. The article…

> Lithium occurs throughout the US in ores like Lepidolite, but it's never been considered cost-effective to extract it. I've found a way.

That's an unusual claim. Lithium is actively being extracted by Albemarle in the US, in Nevada. They essentially have a monopoly on US lithium production via the Silver Peak mine. About 3.4% of the world's Lithium production comes out of that one mine. They're likely going to be able to expand their US production significantly without requiring any big breakthroughs.

http://fortune.com/2016/03/29/lithium-tesla-mine-nevada/

Further, Tesla has already agreed to purchase lithium supply from another Nevada mining project underway:

http://fortune.com/2015/09/16/tesla-lithium-gigafactory-neva...

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#49

Post by JshWright »

aerovistae wrote: post #38
mchannon wrote: post #14

Lithium doesn't weigh much of anything (even compared to oil), so a ton of Lithium is a LOT of lithium. Since as a commodity it's never traded in metallic form (too hazardous and energy-intensive to get it there, and not much market for straight metal, even as an input to battery production). It tends to be traded as carbonate, so a ton of lithium carbonate still has a very small amount of lithium in it. The article…

> I've found a way Good luck! (Genuine) Hope it makes it to reality and scales well. If lithium can be generated at scale in the US, the cost of electric cars domestically would drop like a rock, while keeping the money in the country. For the US, the benefits would be immense. That would be so great. (Not that trading abroad is a bad thing, but we need all the "Made in America" we can get these days, where everythin…

Assuming 50 kg of lithium carbonate per car (most sources I can find are somewhere in the 500-700g/kWh for lithium carbonate), and a price of $5/kg, you're looking at $250 in lithium per car. Even if you take the high end estimates I found (1.3kg LCE/kWh and $6/kg for LCE), you're still well under $1,000 in lithium costs.

I'm sure a reduction in lithium costs would be welcomed by everyone involved, but it certainly wouldn't cause price to plummet.

Re: Tesla Shakes Up Market for Lithium, Other Metals

#50

Post by scythe »

simplemath wrote: post #26
mchannon wrote: post #14

Lithium doesn't weigh much of anything (even compared to oil), so a ton of Lithium is a LOT of lithium. Since as a commodity it's never traded in metallic form (too hazardous and energy-intensive to get it there, and not much market for straight metal, even as an input to battery production). It tends to be traded as carbonate, so a ton of lithium carbonate still has a very small amount of lithium in it. The article…

>I've found a way wow. If you're not bullshitting, and your method is scalable,reliable,and cost-effective congratulations on changing the world.

It's worth pointing out that "cost-effective" in a competitive market is actually a pretty high bar. For context, lithium can be reliably extracted from seawater, with more available than humans could dream of using. To do so costs about $30/lb, which certainly isn't breaking the bank if you're using it for a car battery.

Trouble is, the market price for lithium is closer to $5/lb, so good luck selling any.

(Prices in this post are examples, and from memory)

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