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Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

kalkis-research.com

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Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#51

Post by ssharp »

Udik wrote: post #43
red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

> Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish" Yes, how dumb is that? A few weeks ago I googled for a company I was going to interview with. Since then the ad spaces in my web pages have been filled with ads of this company, which sells IT services for logistics. I'm a sort of atypical consumer - not very willing to spend m…

A few comments on this:

1) The company might be better off capping their impressions to you.

2) The company might be better off focusing on setting their remarketing pixels further down the funnel (unless you entered their funnel as part of the process).

3) How do you reasonably expect the company to treat you differently than they do actual leads? I'll assume the majority of traffic that goes to their website is interested in their services and not researching for a job interview, so unless there is some way they could reasonably figure out you're not interested and exclude you, I don't think what's happening here is that wrong. Marketing to people who already visited your site is almost certainly going to be worth more money to advertisers who are prospecting based solely on your interests.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#52

Post by levesque »

Udik wrote: post #49
jjoonathan wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can absolutely figure it out, just not for less than it costs to throw the ads at you, which is very little.

They're not wasting money in showing me that ad, its cost is negligible. They're wasting the money they could have made by showing me a relevant ad. For example, there's tons of books I might be interested in buying, and they might be able to extract that information from my browsing habits. It would be an advantage for me as well, to get suggestions about things I might be interested in. Showing me nail varnish ads…

It's hard to infer you want to buy books from a search about nail polish, mixed with whatever else is in your history.

There is also the question of who's willing to pay for ads, and for much are they willing to pay. They have to pick from what's available. I see a lot more ads about stuff that is costly and profitable, i.e. photography gear, car rental, insurance.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#53

Post by Kesty »

AznHisoka wrote: post #47
prof_hobart wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be paying for most of it? An awful lot of the content out there exists because there's money in it (or at least the hope of money). And most of what pays for that is ads.

Bloggers. The Internet is not short of quality content at all. If Mashable can't afford to write about Trump, a blogger will.

Not with the same quality nor with the same consistency.

While there are some great bloggers that might cover this, it's usually people that are starting to do that to have an "head start" while waiting to be able to do that full time.

Most bloggers also still run ads to offset some of their costs and they usually provide commentary of news that are reported by more traditional news outlet.

Without those incentive I don't see many bloggers, especially intelligent and high quality one that will keep going or that will be able to have the system in place o handle an "internet hug" by a site like reddit or hackernews.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#55

Post by red_admiral »

coredog64 wrote: post #46
taneq wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A used car salesman who you spoke to once at a party and who knows a couple of facts about you which they refer to in every damn sentence. "Hey so last time I saw you you talked about nail polish, I've got a friend selling some... Did you want cheap tickets to a nail-painting seminar? There's a nail & manicure kit on Amazon!" Only it wasn't even you at the party, it was your friend that did one Google search for nail…

At least with Amazon, when I search for a gag gift, I can tell them later to ignore my page view for recommendations. I would love ability for same with Google.

If you know in advance that you're about to search for a gag gift, open a new private browsing window.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#56

Post by qaq »

geocar wrote: post #26
joelrunyon wrote: post #8

Couple problems - 1) you can see which sites (or even specify) which ones show your ads. 2) if you're doing it correctly, you're looking at ROAS (return on ad spend), so the type of site doesn't matter - just how well the ads return. 3) this mostly only relates to people who don't know what they're doing w/ ads.

1) Not necessarily. Most exchanges allow the publisher to supply their own domain, either explicitly, or because the real information comes from JavaScript that the Publisher can subvert and control. This happens. 2) Many (most?) markets don't have direct response, making measuring return very difficult. 3) That's basically everybody. If you know someone who actually knows what they're doing with ads, then I've got a…

I've worked with ad networks dealing with online gaming. While I am not ready to buy your bridge I saw people that were very good at what they did running campaigns that had sometimes way over 20% conversion rates. The compensation structure was revenue share 30-40% for life of the player. People who knew what they are doing were making 50-60K per week. From that experience I formed an opinion that people who know what they are doing with ads are working for themselves concentrating on very lucrative niches.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#57

Post by Udik »

levesque wrote: post #52
Udik wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not wasting money in showing me that ad, its cost is negligible. They're wasting the money they could have made by showing me a relevant ad. For example, there's tons of books I might be interested in buying, and they might be able to extract that information from my browsing habits. It would be an advantage for me as well, to get suggestions about things I might be interested in. Showing me nail varnish ads…

It's hard to infer you want to buy books from a search about nail polish, mixed with whatever else is in your history. There is also the question of who's willing to pay for ads, and for much are they willing to pay. They have to pick from what's available. I see a lot more ads about stuff that is costly and profitable, i.e. photography gear, car rental, insurance.

Google knows where I live, what job I do, where is my office, at what time I go to work in the morning, and almost every page I visit on Wikipedia. It even knows where I parked the car the last time. Is it possible that with all this information it can still mistake me for a potential buyer of that company's product?

I think that ads tend to be about costly stuff (if that is true) because they have to discount their own low accuracy. You can make money by showing me ads for goods worth only a few dollars, if there are enough chances that I'll buy them.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#58

Post by driverdan »

Others have pointed out many of the flaws in this but here's one that was overlooked.

> One can only imagine the dreadful returns for outsiders, companies like Verizon or Walmart.

I can't speak for Verizon but Walmart has a very smart and sophisticated ecommerce team. They aren't outsiders by any means.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#59

Post by y04nn »

eva1984 wrote: post #17

"A special case must be made of Facebook, as we believe that their platform is harder to crack, and they have a better ability to track their users, and fight ad fraud." LOL, this is one of the most blatantly money article I ever read. No facebook data AT ALL, yet author claims Facebook is superior and immune to those problems he mentioned, because apparently he believes. EDIT: this company, "KALKIS UAB", if you thro…

Maybe they want to convert some Google shares to Facebook shares, but who is going to believe an article like that. As there is a lot of fake liked pages on Facebook, I don't think Facebook is immune to Ad fraud.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#60

Post by Udik »

ssharp wrote: post #51
Udik wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish" Yes, how dumb is that? A few weeks ago I googled for a company I was going to interview with. Since then the ad spaces in my web pages have been filled with ads of this company, which sells IT services for logistics. I'm a sort of atypical consumer - not very willing to spend m…

A few comments on this: 1) The company might be better off capping their impressions to you. 2) The company might be better off focusing on setting their remarketing pixels further down the funnel (unless you entered their funnel as part of the process). 3) How do you reasonably expect the company to treat you differently than they do actual leads? I'll assume the majority of traffic that goes to their website is int…

I don't understand why the job of figuring out how to place the ads best should be a concern of the company, instead of Google itself. Google knows basically everything about me, including where I work and what type of job I do, I'm surprised they can't do a better job at placing their customer's ads.
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