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The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

electrek.co

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Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#281

Post by SEJeff »

harryh wrote: post #195
SEJeff wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually the markets are "supposed" to double every 10 years, which is said that on average over 10 years, the markets will grow 10% per year. Since the recession 8 years ago that has been much lower, but in general, that is the rule most industry people will give you. I work as a tech guy in finance and have for the past 8.5ish years.

Anyone who tells you to expect a 10% annual return from the S&P500 is lying to you. And probably trying to sell you something.

Incorrect, please re-read my statement. An average 10% annual return over 10 years. As the other reply to this notes, history shows in general this rule has held since 1970ish.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#282

Post by mr_luc »

coryfklein wrote: post #259
amenghra wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

Whoa! That sounds really cool so I looked it up. It's called "Pumped-storage hydroelectricity" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricit...

Yeah, and I believe that it's the only game in town for storing really large amounts of electricity.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#283

Post by Analemma_ »

amenghra wrote: post #236
S_A_P wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

It's very efficient and it's a great solution overall; the only problem is there are only so many dams we can build, since each one requires drowning a valley.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#284

Post by mtgx »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #103

The aggressiveness of the price drops on solar is pretty amazing. I just lost one of the inverters on my grid-tie system after it had run trouble free for 13 years. So we're looking at the first "major" repair to the system I installed in 2003. And in 2003 my 5.2kW of panels on my roof cost $38,000 before subsidies and $19,000 after. 28 panels, two 2.5kW inverters, net about 4.2kW of generation. I priced out replacin…

Not too long ago some of the comments here were saying "how will we feed all of those millions of EVs out there if the EVs do end up replacing most ice cars?"

Well that's the utilities opportunity to survive. Utilities should actually lobby against ICE cars and pro-EVs. They will be the ones charging EVs everywhere. Not everyone will afford to charge their own EV at home where they have solar panels.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#285

Post by MrBra »

coryfklein wrote: post #259
amenghra wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

Whoa! That sounds really cool so I looked it up. It's called "Pumped-storage hydroelectricity" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricit...

Also interesting: https://www.quora.com/Can-electricity-be-stored

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#286

Post by askldfhjkasfhd »

reitzensteinm wrote: post #231
m3mnoch wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this argument kind of annoys me. "yeah, but how long before you see a return on investment?" how about instantly? this is what we did: 1) calculated our monthly electricity payment: $160 or so a month. 2) priced out solar to push our payment to net-zero-ish: the savings really start multiplying once you get down into the regulated tiers. 3) replaced our electricity bill with a solar installation loan. what did we get…

But what happens when you no longer get free power under net zero agreements (which is going to happen), and the cost of the system drops, reducing the value further of the already depreciating asset?

They will continue to save money on his monthly power bill, to a lesser extent. They will still have the warm fuzzy feeling that their existence is putting less of a drain on the planet's resources than they otherwise would have. And they may have captured a great deal of surplus value, possibly even enough to pay for the system before these changes are implemented.

In the past 25 years, electricity rates in CA have seen a 3-4x increase. If this continues, then even as some of the advantages drop away, the comparison function (monthly electric bill) will also increase, likely offsetting a lot of lost value.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#287

Post by paulhart »

S_A_P wrote: post #229
coryfklein wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And that is why it is a huge problem for the power companies It is a problem, but not necessarily in the way you may be thinking. Peak residential power usage is in the evening when solar isn't available. Power companies therefore end up spinning down coal and natural gas during peak solar, then just spinning them back up again as the sun begins to set. [1] So you haven't replaced the coal and natural gas plants, y…

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

Oncor solicited a study that showed that a mass install of Tesla Powerwall devices would be an economic solution to this problem [1], at which point all the generators lost their minds and lobbied the PUCT to prevent Oncor from destroying their market [2] (because of their position as a Transmission & Distribution Service Provider in the market, it would require a change in law for Oncor to be able to implement the project).

[0] Work for a multinational in their energy & utilities consulting practice; above comment is my own.

[1] http://www.brattle.com/system/news/pdfs/000/000/749/original...

[2] https://www.texastribune.org/2014/12/15/state-law-could-shor...

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#288

Post by msellout »

nothrabannosir wrote: post #57
bemmu wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe people like fresh things? Here's an A/B test I recently ran on some notification messages. There were two messages, only difference is the word "new" in there. A: "You received a message from the admins about your Facebook page." B: "You received a new message from the admins about your Facebook page." A clickthrough 15.64%, B clickthrough 15.95%. About 1000 samples per group. Not sure if noise.

.3% on 1k? That's three people.. Yes, noise.

I'm often annoyed when reading reports that use percentages instead of the actual ratios. For example, "2 out of 3" is much better than "66.7%".

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#289

Post by mikereedell »

amenghra wrote: post #236
S_A_P wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

I grew up by one of these in NJ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yards_Creek_Generating_Station

I remember parking at the lower reservoir and hiking to the upper one and being amazed at how big the water pipe is.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#290

Post by [deleted] »

mjevans wrote: post #237
S_A_P wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

We have a lot of good technologies already, the problem is they just don't scale well. I can envision older warehouses in an industrial district being converted in to vacuum flywheel storage sites where power fed in to the grid earlier is buffered and then released back to it. Changing our culture is another possible approach. Power is used in the evenings because that's when most people get off work/home/etc and the…

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