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Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

drcraigwright.net

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Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#31

Post by theli0nheart »

If Dr. Wright is indeed taking us for a ride, he doesn't seem worried that the "real" Satoshi won't come out and expose him as a fraud (like he did a few years ago with Dorian Nakamoto). Although the circumstances were different then, the chances of this happening are absolutely non-zero, and it could happen at any time. Why continue pushing the issue and drawing attention, which only adds to the risk of this happening?

I'm not saying at all that this is indicative that Dr. Wright is Satoshi, but IMO it's definitely interesting.

Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#33

Post by jerf »

blowski wrote: post #13
jerf wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why not now? Or indeed, why not a month ago? If the goal is to convince people that he is Satoshi, and he really was Satoshi, this would never be his best choice of action. Given that goal, what conceivable reason is there to delay this simple action? The most probable conclusion is pretty simple. I'll cop to hedging a bit with "probable", but in the event that this claim turns out to be true, it would be fair to…

Maybe, just maybe, he's enjoying dragging it out and watching all these doubters post their reasons why it's not him. Imagining this whole story a year from now, with Craig Wright incontrovertibly proved to be Satoshi, the way he's done it would give him maximum PR value. Or he could be a lying douchebag who's assuming that he will be associated with Satoshi in the general public consciousness after the media gets bo…

"he's enjoying dragging it out and watching all these doubters post their reasons why it's not him."

Then, as Satoshi, who is the founder of BitCoin and owner of quite a lot of them, who must be quite intelligent to be able to have created the system in the first place, he must also be quite colossally stupid and bereft of self-interest to not realize that proving the founder of BitCoin deliberately generated that much drama is likely to significantly negatively affect his substantial BitCoin holding by making a lot of people reassess the stability of BitCoin if the creator is suddenly proved to be this drama-prone.

We must also hypothesize a very rapid flip between someone who has successfully hidden the identity for this many years, the very definition of Minimum Drama, suddenly flipping to Maximum Drama.

It's not an impossible theory... which I mean, it's not impossible, and should it prove to be true, I won't apologize for this analysis because I think it'll still hold.... but it's an awfully precise one.

Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#35

Post by a_t48 »

ultramancool wrote: post #26
tunesmith wrote: post #9

This is a prime opportunity for skeptics to identify for themselves, ahead of time , the clear conditions where 1) If Wright meets them, they will accept he is Satoshi 2) If Wright doesn't, then they will not A great exercise in avoiding the moving of goalposts, by setting a clear expectation ahead of time.

Just sign a message using the pubkey in the genesis block and I'll admit it. No questions asked. Just like Charlie Lee did for Litecoin here: https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/727157971428331520 (he did it to show just how easy and provable it is) Anything less and I have to question it or call bullshit. Current state is complete bullshit. Moving coin from early blocks is not nearly as good. Bitcoin was publiciz…

Maybe he lost\destroyed it? (:

Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#36

Post by curiousgal »

ultramancool wrote: post #26
tunesmith wrote: post #9

This is a prime opportunity for skeptics to identify for themselves, ahead of time , the clear conditions where 1) If Wright meets them, they will accept he is Satoshi 2) If Wright doesn't, then they will not A great exercise in avoiding the moving of goalposts, by setting a clear expectation ahead of time.

Just sign a message using the pubkey in the genesis block and I'll admit it. No questions asked. Just like Charlie Lee did for Litecoin here: https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/727157971428331520 (he did it to show just how easy and provable it is) Anything less and I have to question it or call bullshit. Current state is complete bullshit. Moving coin from early blocks is not nearly as good. Bitcoin was publiciz…

What if, and this is a big IF, he is Satoshi and somehow "lost" that key?

Heck what if the real Satoshi lost that key, how would he make us believe him if he were to step out of the shadows?

Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#37

Post by narrator »

Lxr wrote: post #28

The guy is clearly an attention seeker, he has provided literally zero proof he’s anyone noteworthy so let’s move on. He will likely continue to trickle these convoluted and increasingly desperate blog posts as people gradually forget about him.

This is reminding me of watching a free energy scam unfold. Lots of big announcements, pending big announcements, some half ass attempts at validation, some more news of tinkering and delay, etc, etc. He still can't come up with the signature or the excess energy.

Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#39

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft »

alva wrote: post #16

If by some extremely small chance he is Satoshi And his identity was close to being revealed (I think his name was first lingering in the ether around August), this could be a truly beautiful sleight of hand. Purposely release 'proof' you know could be quickly refuted. Get the papers covering you with lots of photos and unnecessary blurb about companies you have been involved in. Drag the whole ordeal out over a week…

If the intent is to escape the "15 minutes of fame", this doesn't work... because you still endure the 15 minutes of fame.

If the intent is to escape authorities and supervillains, this fails as well. They don't tend to discredit things without an actual investigation, which will reveal the ruse.

Re: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

#40

Post by geofft »

theli0nheart wrote: post #31

If Dr. Wright is indeed taking us for a ride, he doesn't seem worried that the "real" Satoshi won't come out and expose him as a fraud (like he did a few years ago with Dorian Nakamoto). Although the circumstances were different then, the chances of this happening are absolutely non-zero, and it could happen at any time. Why continue pushing the issue and drawing attention, which only adds to the risk of this happeni…

Did he really? The message was in March 2014 from the "Satoshi Nakamoto" account on p2pfoundation.ning.com:

http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topic/listForContributor...

which at one point (probably) belonged to Satoshi, but by September 2014 (almost certainly) belonged to someone else. The account was only used three times before that, in February 2009, to write a post about Bitcoin and two replies. It's certainly possible that if one non-Satoshi person gained access to the account between 2009 and 2014, multiple people could have, and that the person who sent the March 2014 message was just an unrelated kindhearted person who wanted the paparazzi to stop bothering Dorian Nakamoto.

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