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The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

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Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#271

Post by ChuckMcM »

lucisferre wrote: post #256
ChuckMcM wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife and I designed the system but it was installed by a Los Gatos company that did not survive. As part of our education efforts, my wife completed a program to become a certified solar installer (you needed to be certified to get the full rebate at the time) but one of the women she met in the class was working at this company and it just made sense to give them the job to help them bootstrapping their company.

So what you're suggesting is to take the installer course and then hire one of your classmates.

Not really, I was just relating how it worked out for us. There are a number of Solar Power advocacy groups around, in the Bay Area we went to meetups of NorCal Solar[1] (back in the early 2000's they would tours where you could see houses that had solar and ask questions). Great way to hang out with like minded individuals and collect folks experience with various installation companies and system options. Installations are common enough these days that you can probably find someone who has already done what you are thinking of doing, and tell you how it worked out for them.

[1] http://www.norcalsolar.org/

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#272

Post by kragen »

maxerickson wrote: post #211
kragen wrote: post #161

A really interesting thing about this is that the price of solar panels has changed almost not at all in those 16 months: http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spot-market-price-ind... shows that it's 0.49 to 0.63 € / Wp today, while 16 months earlier, it was 0.45 to 0.62. This is a dramatic contrast from the continuous 36% per year reductions from 2009 to 2012. In large part because it's night half of the time, sol…

It seems part of the story was crystal production getting ahead of demand. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polycrystalline_silicon#Capaci... The price graph a little lower is interesting.

Thank you! I remember that catastrophic price spike. Note that in the 2009 to 2012 timeframe, though, the polysilicon price was relatively stable (declining only by half), and it's declined since then, so polysilicon pricing is only part of the story.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#273

Post by dragontamer »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #270
dragontamer wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers should pay a fair price for the service. If consumers are using the utility's batteries and the utility's network, then the consumer should pay for the use of those services. Peaker-plants can have a very simple solution: carbon taxes. Simple enough, and I support this measure to handle the externality. Rooftop solar currently is probably a net benefit as long as the storage issue isn't a problem. (IE: the…

I'm glad you support a carbon price, because that's another great example of where "fair" becomes a political discussion. I could say that if a coal producer wants to dump sulphur, radiation, C02 etc. into the air then it's "fair" that they recompense the people who live in the countries they pollute and the people they help to kill. Why should those who don't do this (people who generate their own electricity or pay…

The difference is that I also think that net-metering is an unfair deal to utility companies. Again, someone needs to build the energy storage mechanism. You can't legislate away reality.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#274

Post by tim333 »

tanderson92 wrote: post #106
epistasis wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as energy goes, that's still very near term. But costs will continue to drop in that time period, without a doubt. Perhaps as important, they're hoping that interest rates remain low for the next few years.

Don't see why they would need to hope that interest rates remain low. Interest rates are already low, so they can sell debt at current interest rates for the term needed. I do think you're correct that low interest rates are a factor.

An unusual feature in this case is

>One can suspect that Masdar had access to long-term financing through the wealthy emirate of Abu Dhabi that no commercial banks, the primary source of capital for the other bidders, could match in cost.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#275

Post by derefr »

pc2g4d wrote: post #247
mjevans wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a lot of good technologies already, the problem is they just don't scale well. I can envision older warehouses in an industrial district being converted in to vacuum flywheel storage sites where power fed in to the grid earlier is buffered and then released back to it. Changing our culture is another possible approach. Power is used in the evenings because that's when most people get off work/home/etc and the…

Price electricity differently through the day according to its scarcity and people might eventually adjust their routines to reduce evening usage.

That seems backwards. The aggregate preferences and habits of humans should be seen as an incentivizing force for the creations of new technologies, not the other way around.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#276

Post by lancewiggs »

manishsharan wrote: post #268
coryfklein wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And that is why it is a huge problem for the power companies It is a problem, but not necessarily in the way you may be thinking. Peak residential power usage is in the evening when solar isn't available. Power companies therefore end up spinning down coal and natural gas during peak solar, then just spinning them back up again as the sun begins to set. [1] So you haven't replaced the coal and natural gas plants, y…

I am clearly out of my depth here but what if we take the newly daytime unused/idle coal power or natural gas power for other endeavors like sea water desalination or just pumping up water into a watertower when daytime energy cost is low and adding increased hydro capacity in the evening when the energy cost is higher?

Those sources of power have a higher marginal cost and are only spun up when the spot price is high enough - in peak demand times.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#277

Post by inovica »

amenghra wrote: post #236
S_A_P wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

Very. One of the first was in Scotland. Great to visit as you drive into the mountain and I think one of the Bond files had a scene filmed in it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruachan_Power_Station

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#278

Post by S_A_P »

mjevans wrote: post #237
S_A_P wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

We have a lot of good technologies already, the problem is they just don't scale well. I can envision older warehouses in an industrial district being converted in to vacuum flywheel storage sites where power fed in to the grid earlier is buffered and then released back to it. Changing our culture is another possible approach. Power is used in the evenings because that's when most people get off work/home/etc and the…

You are correct- there are energy storage solutions out there, I should have clarified my statement above. The issue is that they cant store power grid levels of power in an efficient, compact, and scalable manner. This is the rub. Maintaining a giant battery bank or other measures require maintenance and large capital expenditures.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#279

Post by ptaipale »

stale2002 wrote: post #261
ptaipale wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly not universal. Could be true in California or Texas, possibly. For sure it's not here. Where I live, the peak is a winter morning which is windless and therefore particularly cold, at 8:00 (before sunrise). Solar output is zero, wind power output is zero. Everyone turns extra heaters on, puts the kettle on to make a hot cup before taking a warm shower.

The point isn't that it is 100% universal for all places. The point is that it is true for most places.

[citation needed]

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#280

Post by esmi »

copperx wrote: post #214
toomuchtodo wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that the 30% tax credit will eventually taper off. It might behoove you to wait now, but not forever.

What is this 30% tax credit you speak of?

http://energy.gov/savings/residential-renewable-energy-tax-c...
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