The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months • Hacker News Board

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#151

Post by Retric » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:35 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #139

warmwaffles wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long until you start seeing a return on investment? Right now my electricity bill for my home is ~100 a month in Texas. I would need to keep the same panels without maintenance fees for 33.33 years by your price point of 40k

That is a slightly more nuanced question than you might think. First, I work from a baseline cost of $19K, even though the list price was closer to $40K I didn't pay that for the system so I use the actual cost in my calculations. Second there is the point where the money you've saved is equal to the money you paid, we hit that point about 10 years in. And then, depending on the life of your system (which has "positi…

Don't forget about taxes. Interest on that 6% loan get's deducted from your income which is an arguable subsidy. Alternatively, you also avoid paying taxes on your S&P returns.

In many cases solar is really close to a no brainier. Which is why Florida Utility's have tried so hard to block residential adoption.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#152

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:36 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #138

krschultz wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Payback of 6 years with the new cost, even for your low electric bill.

Unlikely. Solar Panels don't replace all of your electricity costs. Naturally, you'll still run your refrigerator at night, right? And during the day, when you have peak-solar energy, you'll be at work and won't be taking advantage of it. You'll recoup some of the costs through net-metering, but you usually buy back at wholesale prices and not at retail prices. Finally, I'd expect utility companies to change their pr…

Chuck's sibling reply is spot on, but something else you must realize is that both renewables and energy storage are only going to get cheaper.

This means if utilities attempt to squeeze people with solar on their roof, they will simply move to batteries eventually. This already makes sense, today, in Hawaii (where the local utility was stalling on additional grid tie capacity, and with their per kwh rates so high, is was cheaper to go off grid). The more people who move off grid, the less people the utility can spread its costs across, increasing the rates for those remaining (which then rapidly incentives those people to move off grid).

This is called "the utility death spiral". Its a very real possible outcome, and utilities are aware of it. [+]

[+] http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/this-is-what-the...

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#153

Post by sgt101 » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:36 PM UTC

efields wrote: post #149

Curious… does it ever get low enough that electric heat becomes desirable? We moved into a place that had electric heat on the ground floor, ran it the first cold month, saw the bill, then made it a purely "on demand" heating solution. The rest of the apartment was gas forced hot air, which was on a normal schedule. To heat a whole home in a Boston winter seems like it might cost $1000 or so. Is it reasonable to expe…

Three issues - in the winter the days are shorter, the weather is cloudy and it's cold at night. So maybe you could do something with storage heaters, but I'm not feeling optimistic.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#154

Post by artmageddon » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:39 PM UTC

DamnYuppie wrote: post #110

peppaz wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing Tesla is making huge battery packs for our homes so we can ditch the grid entirely.

You don't need to wait for Tesla, you can buy Lithium battery packs now. Heck even AGM or wet cell batteries work fine. I have about 800 ampH and I can do pretty much anything I want except run an AC off of it.

How much did it run?

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#155

Post by KingMob » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:40 PM UTC

aoeusnth1 wrote: post #128

Pxtl wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Of course price/KW will drop massively if the entire thing is being propped up by taxpayer dollars and not the actual need to be profitable. If saving the world was free, the private sector would have done it already. It's not, so it needs to be subsidized.

I'm not against subsidizing solar as it is politically expedient, but a more direct and cost-efficient way to help the environment would be to tax carbon emissions and let the market figure out how to save the world.

But the cost of subsidies are spread out across all taxpayers, while carbon taxes mostly affect polluters, who will lobby against it.

I think you're right, but one option is politically easier than the other.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#156

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:40 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #151

ChuckMcM wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a slightly more nuanced question than you might think. First, I work from a baseline cost of $19K, even though the list price was closer to $40K I didn't pay that for the system so I use the actual cost in my calculations. Second there is the point where the money you've saved is equal to the money you paid, we hit that point about 10 years in. And then, depending on the life of your system (which has "positi…

Don't forget about taxes. Interest on that 6% loan get's deducted from your income which is an arguable subsidy. Alternatively, you also avoid paying taxes on your S&P returns. In many cases solar is really close to a no brainier. Which is why Florida Utility's have tried so hard to block residential adoption.

> In many cases solar is really close to a no brainier. Which is why Florida Utility's have tried so hard to block residential adoption.

This is actually turning into a hollow victory for Florida utilities. To bring people up to speed, Florida outlawed homeowner PPAs [1] (which locks out firms like Solar City, who install the panels and sell you power; no out of pocket cost for you, and you get solar immediately).

With the rapid decrease in panel costs, and the uptick in firms who are providing extremely cheap (or even zero percent loans in some programs!) financing for solar, Solar City (and other installers) are moving towards a financing model, which kills Florida's efforts to stop the spread of distributed rooftop solar.

Disclaimer: I did some volunteer work for the non-profit who attempted to fight utility legislation in this space [2].

[1] http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2015/jan/16/flo...

[2] http://www.flsolarchoice.org/

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#157

Post by rspeer » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:42 PM UTC

SwellJoe wrote: post #117

nashashmi wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hah! Only if dictatorship could ordain things to be done so correctly. Unfortunately we live in a capitalistic democracy.

Are you sincere in your belief that only a dictatorship could lead to more environmentally responsible agriculture and land use in the US? It seems like trolling, but if you're sincere, I could point you to some references on how our current laws reward irresponsible water and land use in many cases. There are many things a "capitalistic democracy" (if that's really what we are living in, which I also think is debata…

Presumably those laws were put in place because somebody benefits from them. Possibly somebody who makes campaign donations.

In that case, the government may technically be able to solve the problem in a way that's better for everyone, but not willing to, as the politicians who make the change could lose their campaign donations or their seats.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#158

Post by viperscape » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:43 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #145

dragontamer wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlikely. Solar Panels don't replace all of your electricity costs. Naturally, you'll still run your refrigerator at night, right? And during the day, when you have peak-solar energy, you'll be at work and won't be taking advantage of it. You'll recoup some of the costs through net-metering, but you usually buy back at wholesale prices and not at retail prices. Finally, I'd expect utility companies to change their pr…

You need to consider the economics of "grid tie" you generate excess power into the grid and "buy it back" when you aren't generating in excess. So if you generate as much power as your going to use for the entire day from your panels, you pay nothing for that day. Even though you are drawing power at night. In the Bay Area, there are other things that screw up the numbers but the program "trues up" once a year (rath…

That's the idea with the Power Wall, https://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall Unless that's what you're pointing out

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#159

Post by antisthenes » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:48 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #127

krschultz wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Payback of 6 years with the new cost, even for your low electric bill.

Excellent example of why solar panels (in the right locations) and LEDs are a better investment than the S&P500 right now. You spend dollars now to eliminate the need for future dollars.

While that is true, keep in mind that future dollars are less expensive than present dollars.

But it stands to reason that the prices of energy will rise faster than the rates of inflation, so it would still be a good investment.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#160

Post by dragontamer » Tue, May 03, 2016, 5:48 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #152

dragontamer wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlikely. Solar Panels don't replace all of your electricity costs. Naturally, you'll still run your refrigerator at night, right? And during the day, when you have peak-solar energy, you'll be at work and won't be taking advantage of it. You'll recoup some of the costs through net-metering, but you usually buy back at wholesale prices and not at retail prices. Finally, I'd expect utility companies to change their pr…

Chuck's sibling reply is spot on, but something else you must realize is that both renewables and energy storage are only going to get cheaper. This means if utilities attempt to squeeze people with solar on their roof, they will simply move to batteries eventually. This already makes sense, today, in Hawaii (where the local utility was stalling on additional grid tie capacity, and with their per kwh rates so high, i…

Indeed.

But what's to stop utilities from purchasing or creating cheaper large-scale projects?

I know you've seen my previous comments on Reddit with regards to Redox Flow batteries, CAES, and Pumped Hydro storage technologies. Utilities simply have access to battery-technology that the common people do NOT have access to. Some energy storage technologies only make sense in larger-scale 50MW applications or more.

If utilities serve a cooperative role in energy service, they will switch to the most cost-effective technology BEFORE the typical homeowner can switch.

-------

Basically, solar pricing is moving FASTER than rooftop solar. Rooftop solar will always require insurance and roof-workers, while solar utility companies can just buy out a field in the middle of no where and install solar on the ground.

Cheaper and safer for utilities to work with. And then everyone in the town benefits, instead of just a few rich people who can afford panels (and the insurance of the rooftop workers)