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One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

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Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except no one decided that - it falls naturally out of the facts that homes are expensive (and therefore represent a large chunk of the wealth of most people) and that homes do not depreciate very much as a result of people living in them.

> homes do not depreciate very much as a result of people living in them. I get what you are saying, but this part above isn't a "natural order of things". For example, homes in Japan are expensive (perhaps representing an even larger fraction of lifetime earnings than in the Statse) yet they depreciate like they are cars.

They depreciate like they are cars because Japan focuses on the new. You don't buy a house, you buy the land, knock down the existing house, and build a new one. You don't buy a used car, you buy a new one unless you're broke. There's precious little used market for anything, which can be a boon to those of us who want to buy nice used film cameras from Japanese ebay sellers.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#172
post #67

12,000 people moved to SF in 2014. 4,000 new homes were added. I think we need more homes. https://medium.com/@TomPJacobs/what-housing-crisis-3c0568a5d...

The link seems to advocate/facilitate increasing occupancy, which is indeed one solution. With 12k people and 4k homes, that's a ratio of 3 which is very close to the average occupancy of around 2.5 that most cities have.

Except that looking at a single year doesn't tell you much about why even a ratio of 3 isn't good in SF. After a quick google search I came across this set of charts that do a pretty good job of covering the history of population and housing in SF.[0] For the period 2010-2013, population rose 32,500 and housing expanded 7,500 - a sustained ratio of 4.33. The decade prior to that saw a much gentler ratio just a little over 1, but that may have been catching up to the booming growth of the '90s and the dotcom bubble. The thing that really caught my eye though was the tidbit of information in the first chart - nearly half of the existing housing in SF was built prior to 1940. The original report (linked in the article) provides a much more grim outlook for 2010-2015 predicting a total population growth of 60,000 with a housing increase of 12,000 - a ratio of 5.[1]

0 - http://sf.curbed.com/2015/2/4/9995388/sfs-population-is-grow...

1 - http://www.paragon-re.com/San_Francisco_Real_Estate_Feb_2015

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except no one decided that - it falls naturally out of the facts that homes are expensive (and therefore represent a large chunk of the wealth of most people) and that homes do not depreciate very much as a result of people living in them.

> homes do not depreciate very much as a result of people living in them. I get what you are saying, but this part above isn't a "natural order of things". For example, homes in Japan are expensive (perhaps representing an even larger fraction of lifetime earnings than in the Statse) yet they depreciate like they are cars.

Honest question: Why?

My home is about 30 years old and honestly the only way you'd know that is by recognizing certain features and techniques that pin it to that general time period of construction and code requirements. It's not like everything shows "30 years of wear" on it. (Of course all the surfaces have been replaced at least once over time, but by mass of the house that's not that much; maintenance is maintenance.) So it seems sensible to me that it hasn't depreciated all that much, in the way that, say, a computer from the same time period is basically worth whichever is greater of "nostalgia" and "scrap metal" value.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#174
post #93
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> "...but not both." What about Chicago. Way cheaper than New York, and has the second best train system in the country.

You can have affordable housing, good mass transit, and jobs. Pick two.

It's a scale issue. There are plenty of small metro areas (600K-1.2MM pop) with affordable housing, plenty of jobs, and absolutely zero useful mass transit. Traffic is bad for about one hour in the morning and two hours in the evening, at most, and usually just in one direction with plenty of side streets.

You double that and the infrastructure collapses. The tax base doesn't support large investments in transit to get a system built from nothing, and the roads and bridges aren't equipped to handle 2x the volume.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#175
post #151
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the supply of land cannot be increased (the huge omission in GP's argument), repealing Prop 13 is indeed a large part of the solution.

Thanks to technology, the supply of land is not really the constraint on housing supply in most of San Francisco, and especially not in most of the Bay Area.

What technology are you referring to?

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#176

Among the people who voted, this is the number for Taxable household income for 2016 More than $150,000 16% Prefer not to respond 11% Rest of the % are all under $150,000. Good senior engineer/product people make way more than that. I don't think any of those people are leaving. They are the critical-mass who will make/break good technical companies and power the innovation cycle. SV is in no trouble. There is no rea…

I admit this comment might be insensitive and will probably ruffle the feathers of many but I was purely thinking from the point of view of economic impact and who drive(s) the innovation engine here. VCs, People who made it in tech, hungry (for success) people who want to make it in tech, and senior product and engineering people who can build solid products (not charlatans or imposters) have no reason to leave SV.…

Zoom out - you're missing the huge demographic risk. The next generation of people who will become top engineers, founders, etc. are facing tougher tradeoffs between standard of living and access to SV's social and business networks. It's not only the risk that the current drivers will leave but that the new drivers will just go elsewhere.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#177
post #5

I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping. I grew up in Cupertino, and when I visit my parents there, I'm rather shocked at how downhill the neighborhood has gone in parts. It's crazy that these old 70's tract homes go for 1.5 million. Even more insane is that they're bought and then left empty to go downhill. Literally broken windows and paint falling off…

> "I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping." This. This. This. A couple of years ago, I found myself utterly shocked by the price of homes in San Francisco. In a fit of frustration, I fired off a few emails a few random real estate firms in SF, asking one simple question: "Who the BLEEP can afford these homes?" You see, I was frustrated. I have a great j…

I was floored when I heard it just takes a phone call in order to buy property in the United States.

I would kinda understand if we were allowed the same reciprocity, but from what I gather; it's very difficult to buy property in most foreign countries.

I can't even debate it too much, before someone call me a racist.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#178

I'm one of those in the 1/3rd, currently in the process of moving to the Denver/Boulder area. I knew on paper the housing would be cheaper, but what's stood out to me is how much less crowded it is: You can go to stores and find parking, and not wait 15 minutes at the cashier. You can go to restaurants and actually get a table. You can make unprotected left turns. Things are busy during rush hour, but outside of that…

What does "you can make unprotected left turns" mean?

I'm from the UK so I guess this is the US equivalent of turning right at a set of traffic lights... but what significance does "unprotected" have?

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#179

I'm one of those in the 1/3rd, currently in the process of moving to the Denver/Boulder area. I knew on paper the housing would be cheaper, but what's stood out to me is how much less crowded it is: You can go to stores and find parking, and not wait 15 minutes at the cashier. You can go to restaurants and actually get a table. You can make unprotected left turns. Things are busy during rush hour, but outside of that…

As someone who lives in a not-crowded this makes me smile :) I can't imagine being so used to such a lifestyle that it starts to feel normal.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#180

I'm one of those in the 1/3rd, currently in the process of moving to the Denver/Boulder area. I knew on paper the housing would be cheaper, but what's stood out to me is how much less crowded it is: You can go to stores and find parking, and not wait 15 minutes at the cashier. You can go to restaurants and actually get a table. You can make unprotected left turns. Things are busy during rush hour, but outside of that…

Boulder has a NIMBY problem nearly as bad as San Francisco's:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11583455

https://journal.dedasys.com/2015/06/18/boulder-colorado-vs-b...

Not sure about Denver, I never looked into it much - it's an order of magnitude too big for me.

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