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Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

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Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#141

Post by partiallypro »

jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

ZeroHedge has a lot of shady things, and if you didn't know better you'd think the world was falling apart.

That being said, their bearish view is pretty important when it gets confirmed by huge people. For instance, ZH has been beating the drums on high yield debt since summer of last year, then Icahn steps in and make similar comments and takes to task BlackRock CEO about their HY ETF being shady and the underlying market being illiquid. There hasn't been a high yield implosion, but a lot of people are betting there will be sometime in the near future. But maybe there won't be? Everything is a gamble, I've lost plenty of money being too early or too late.

You can get decent trade ideas from ZH, but like you said, 95% of their items have to be taken with a grain of salt. The odd part is that most traders, professional traders, and some hedge fund managers frequent ZH and mostly agree on some of their doom scenarios; but the central banks pump the markets with so much money it's impossible to bet against the S&P. "Don't fight the Fed" is a slogan for a reason.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#142

Post by misja111 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #135
jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

Reading ZH like Reddit will always turn out to be toxic. It isn't just the low signal-to-noise ratio. The site's core Austrian philosophy is at odds with the forefront of economic evidence. I skim it from time to time. Very quickly. If I see something interesting, I look look at the source. If it's credible, e.g. Reuters, I cautiously read. If it isn't, I research it. Once in a while I'll come across novel, credible…

'The site's core Austrian philosophy is at odds with the forefront of economic evidence.'

Which evidence are you referring to? Would you mind sharing some of it?

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#143

Post by beamatronic »

pfarnsworth wrote: post #133
nugget wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention that lit the fuse under the markets and led us here. I remember reaching a point myself where I realized that policy was driving the markets more than any other factor and quit actively trading completely. You can be right but if the Feds take the other side of your trade you will be bragging about it to your fellow corpses in the graveyard.

Agreed. I only wish I figured this out $75k or even $50k sooner :)

I feel a little bit better now.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#144

Post by JumpCrisscross »

misja111 wrote: post #142
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading ZH like Reddit will always turn out to be toxic. It isn't just the low signal-to-noise ratio. The site's core Austrian philosophy is at odds with the forefront of economic evidence. I skim it from time to time. Very quickly. If I see something interesting, I look look at the source. If it's credible, e.g. Reuters, I cautiously read. If it isn't, I research it. Once in a while I'll come across novel, credible…

'The site's core Austrian philosophy is at odds with the forefront of economic evidence.' Which evidence are you referring to? Would you mind sharing some of it?

A slightly technical read, but here you go: http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/whyaust.htm.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#145

Post by JumpCrisscross »

partiallypro wrote: post #141
jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

ZeroHedge has a lot of shady things, and if you didn't know better you'd think the world was falling apart. That being said, their bearish view is pretty important when it gets confirmed by huge people. For instance, ZH has been beating the drums on high yield debt since summer of last year, then Icahn steps in and make similar comments and takes to task BlackRock CEO about their HY ETF being shady and the underlying…

> ZH has been beating the drums on high yield debt since summer of last year

So have John Mauldin, the New York Times's Dealbook, the Financial Times... There are better places to get your bear-market digest.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#146

Post by hammock »

jonstokes wrote: post #128
nugget wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention that lit the fuse under the markets and led us here. I remember reaching a point myself where I realized that policy was driving the markets more than any other factor and quit actively trading completely. You can be right but if the Feds take the other side of your trade you will be bragging about it to your fellow corpses in the graveyard.

Yep. At the time, I was reminded of a quote from The Iliad, which I can't find anymore. It was something to the effect of, when the gods come down to earth to meddle in the affairs of mortals, the only ones who win are the ones whose side they take.

  We everlasting gods . . . Ah what chilling blows
  we suffer—thanks to our own conflicting wills—
  whenever we show these mortal men some kindness.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#148

Post by StillBored »

jonstokes wrote: post #127
dismal2 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think about the rally now? I too have been following the site since it started. Around 2011 or so I realized I was missing the greatest rally, possibly ever, but I was an unemployed millennial with no money to invest. In the past 2 years or so I'm finally on a good financial footing but I really think this monetary experiment is coming to an end and I dont think I'm thinking that only from reading doom me…

There are two principles at work here. First is Lord Acton's rule: "things that can't go on forever, don't." The second is Keynes: "the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent." Everyone knows that this has to end -- not just in doom media but everywhere -- but all smart traders know that being early is the exact same thing as being wrong. You cannot time whats coming, and unless you're runn…

The problem is that you can't properly diversify anymore, I went looking for things that weren't correlated. Heck during all the fed/government meddling things that should have been negatively correlated were moving together. That is when I concluded the whole thing was rigged, and it was better to go with the herd than get run over by it. In my own way I bet against the housing boom of the early/mid 2000's too. I didn't really lose any money, but what I learned is that I should have just went out and purchased the largest house I couldn't afford, because the government made it clear that they would do anything to prop up housing/banks/etc. We will never see a _REAL_ price crash in housing because as soon as the markets start to dip a few percent the 2% loans, tax breaks, and bailouts for banks holding empty real-estate they cant sell because doing so will cause the prices to drop further.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#149

Post by scotch_drinker »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #145
partiallypro wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ZeroHedge has a lot of shady things, and if you didn't know better you'd think the world was falling apart. That being said, their bearish view is pretty important when it gets confirmed by huge people. For instance, ZH has been beating the drums on high yield debt since summer of last year, then Icahn steps in and make similar comments and takes to task BlackRock CEO about their HY ETF being shady and the underlying…

> ZH has been beating the drums on high yield debt since summer of last year So have John Mauldin, the New York Times 's Dealbook, the Financial Times... There are better places to get your bear-market digest.

John Mauldin and Worth Wray are two really strong voices for the high yield debt problem. I have learned an incredible amount from them and trust them far more than Zero Hedge on such topics. ZH is the frontline pulse but if you don't want to have to filter out 85% of the crap, Mauldin and Wray are excellent sources.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#150

Post by tanderson92 »

fweespee_ch wrote: post #55

> (Bloomberg LP competes with Zero Hedge in providing financial news and information.) Does anyone else feel this is particularly generous? ZeroHedge is borderline conspiracy theorist nonsense surrounded by occasionally correct financial analysis with a level of accuracy on par with a dart board.

The point isn't to be generous, it is to disclose to readers possible conflicts of interest.
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