Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge • Hacker News Board

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#121

Post by ConfuciusSay02 » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:43 PM UTC

saalweachter wrote: post #76

tptacek wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what? That's not analysis, it's numerology. Just because some things are true doesn't mean all theories are equally deserving of dignity. But the notion that the USG was monitoring the Internet was entirely deserving of dignity: * It's their job * The software security industry is full of people who used to hack professionally for them * There'd been a major news story roughly every other year since the 1990s Eche…

Another important point-- once you get into the conspiracy theory mindset, it's not so much that a conspiracy or some conspiracies happen. There's a tendency to believe that all conspiracies are true, even the contradictory ones. Your average conspiracy theorist doesn't just believe the NSA is spying on Americans [they better be spying on non-Americans; we taxpayers are paying them a lot of money to do so] or that Pu…

You seem to be making a lot of assumptions about what people believe. Do you have any evidence to show that people believe all or nothing? Over 80% of Americans think that the official 9/11 story is bunk, are you suggesting that all of those people also believe aliens have visited Earth?

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#122

Post by sesutton » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:43 PM UTC

didjdjjdjf wrote: post #53

alistproducer2 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think that the authors have no problem with authoritarianism Like any conspiracy site, it's going to attract people who share a view of the world in which everything must be orchestrated, controlled - a reason for all things. Randomness has no place in the mind of a conspiracy theorist. The order provided by conspiracies comfort the conspiracy theorist: paradoxically making the world feel safer, more ordered while…

What's sad is no matter how often people like you are proven wrong you'll just keep on repeating the same bullshit. I recall HN saying gold market manipulation was conspiracy theory, ZH was right HN commenters were wrong. There's a long list but when it comes to finance HN commenters are typically poorly educated.

Throw enough darts at the board and you're bound to hit the bullseye eventually.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#123

Post by alva » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:44 PM UTC

rmah wrote: post #19

chollida1 wrote: post #7

If no one has been to the site before here it is: http://www.zerohedge.com/ Believe it or not it has a huge following in the finance world due to it often being one of the first ones to break or provide color on important stories. It's not uncommon at all to see a row of traders with tweet deck open allocating a single column to Zero hedge, they are just that prolific with their output. The downside of the site is th…

Regarding the "huge following"... Yes, lots of people read it, send links to friends, etc. But, most of the time those links are sent for comedy or shock value, not because people think it's serious news. To use an analogy, zerohedge is like the 4chan of the finance world.

> To use an analogy, zerohedge is like the 4chan of the finance world.

Less of an insult than some may think. There are significant signals buried beneath the huge noise at 4chan

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#124

Post by ConfuciusSay02 » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:44 PM UTC

jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

Frankly, you should be keeping that salt boulder at the ready for all media you read today. Not just ZH.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#125

Post by mahyarm » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:45 PM UTC

dismal2 wrote: post #112

jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

What do you think about the rally now? I too have been following the site since it started. Around 2011 or so I realized I was missing the greatest rally, possibly ever, but I was an unemployed millennial with no money to invest. In the past 2 years or so I'm finally on a good financial footing but I really think this monetary experiment is coming to an end and I dont think I'm thinking that only from reading doom me…

I've realized in my life trying to predict macro is pretty damn hard. Because even if something is irrational, it might be in a whole bunch of very powerful group's interests to keep on propping up the irrational for a very long time.

For example, I come from Vancouver. In Vancouver, the 2007 real estate bubble never stopped, wages stayed at their Reno, NV levels. Having Vancouver RE has had about a %30 annualized return for about 15 years. Now an average house is about 1.5-2 million dollars. The housing market is completely irrational, but knowing how it works it might be another 'boom' decade or it might all collapse on itself in the next few years.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#126

Post by nugget » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:45 PM UTC

pfarnsworth wrote: post #120

jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

I lost about $100k in 2009 buying into the ZH-gloom and doom mentality, unfortunately. Everything they said made sense, but it just wasn't how the world works.

In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention that lit the fuse under the markets and led us here. I remember reaching a point myself where I realized that policy was driving the markets more than any other factor and quit actively trading completely. You can be right but if the Feds take the other side of your trade you will be bragging about it to your fellow corpses in the graveyard.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#127

Post by jonstokes » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:45 PM UTC

dismal2 wrote: post #112

jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

What do you think about the rally now? I too have been following the site since it started. Around 2011 or so I realized I was missing the greatest rally, possibly ever, but I was an unemployed millennial with no money to invest. In the past 2 years or so I'm finally on a good financial footing but I really think this monetary experiment is coming to an end and I dont think I'm thinking that only from reading doom me…

There are two principles at work here. First is Lord Acton's rule: "things that can't go on forever, don't." The second is Keynes: "the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."

Everyone knows that this has to end -- not just in doom media but everywhere -- but all smart traders know that being early is the exact same thing as being wrong.

You cannot time whats coming, and unless you're running money for somebody else, you don't have to. The only thing you can do is diversify. I know that this is standard advice and it's not nearly as sexy as betting on The Big One, but having a healthily diversified portfolio is literally the only way to stay sane.

If you just have to buy catastrophe insurance, then treat it like what it is: a small hedge against a long tail eventuality. That means don't bet your lifestyle on it.

For me, the most powerful lesson from the GFC is that /everyone/, without exception, is net long The System, and when you bet against The System you bet against the combined best efforts of the most advanced civilization that this planet has ever produced. That is stupid, so don't do it.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#128

Post by jonstokes » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:51 PM UTC

nugget wrote: post #126

pfarnsworth wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lost about $100k in 2009 buying into the ZH-gloom and doom mentality, unfortunately. Everything they said made sense, but it just wasn't how the world works.

In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention that lit the fuse under the markets and led us here. I remember reaching a point myself where I realized that policy was driving the markets more than any other factor and quit actively trading completely. You can be right but if the Feds take the other side of your trade you will be bragging about it to your fellow corpses in the graveyard.

Yep. At the time, I was reminded of a quote from The Iliad, which I can't find anymore. It was something to the effect of, when the gods come down to earth to meddle in the affairs of mortals, the only ones who win are the ones whose side they take.

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#129

Post by krapp » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:51 PM UTC

alva wrote: post #117

saalweachter wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another important point-- once you get into the conspiracy theory mindset, it's not so much that a conspiracy or some conspiracies happen. There's a tendency to believe that all conspiracies are true, even the contradictory ones. Your average conspiracy theorist doesn't just believe the NSA is spying on Americans [they better be spying on non-Americans; we taxpayers are paying them a lot of money to do so] or that Pu…

> You rarely find a conspiracy theorist who believes one crazy thing, it's almost all or nothing Not sure how true this is. There are certainly a lot of vocal conspiracy theorists online who match your description. Unfortunately these are lumped together to discredit genuine conspiracy theories ( market manipulation, Hillsborough etc ) when they exist. It is a powerful tool to diminish investigation.

>Unfortunately these are lumped together to discredit genuine conspiracy theories ( market manipulation, Hillsborough etc ) when they exist. It is a powerful tool to diminish investigation.

You make it seem as if this association between "rational" and "irrational" conspiracy theorists is itself a conspiracy to discredit the former with the latter, which probably happens, but it's also the case that the conspiracy theorist community (or communities) and conspiracy sites often choose not to discriminate between rational and irrational theory themselves. Conspiracists tend to interpret skepticism or attempts to debunk (read, actually prove) their theories as attempts to "silence the truth," making it difficult to clean house.

Although it also doesn't help that the more outlandish conspiracy theories are the ones that enter public consciousness through the media. But those outlandish conspiracy theories are also the most fun - would anyone watch an X Files about normal, boring conspiracies - tax evasion, surveillance and occasional human experimentation, rather than aliens and the Illuminati?

Re: Unmasking the Men Behind Zero Hedge

#130

Post by nugget » Fri, Apr 29, 2016, 4:57 PM UTC

dismal2 wrote: post #112

jonstokes wrote: post #98

I think ZH is a great site, and I read it daily, BUT if you don't take it with a truckload of salt then it will be hazardous to your wealth. Seriously, if you had been in the ZH bear trade since 2009, then you missed out on the greatest stock market rally in a generation. I know, because I missed the first half of said rally as a ZH reader until I realized that the constant drumbeat of negative news from that site wa…

What do you think about the rally now? I too have been following the site since it started. Around 2011 or so I realized I was missing the greatest rally, possibly ever, but I was an unemployed millennial with no money to invest. In the past 2 years or so I'm finally on a good financial footing but I really think this monetary experiment is coming to an end and I dont think I'm thinking that only from reading doom me…

As other posters have said: diversification is the only free lunch because market timing is nearly impossible. The other thing you can do is invest in yourself and increase your income earning potential (which, to me, means both the absolute amount of income you make and how much your enjoy your job and therefore how long you can last in it). As returns on financial capital decrease, returns on human capital (your own labor) become relatively more important and attractive. If we are truly headed for decades of ZIRP and sub-4% (or even flat) real returns then YOU are the best place to invest your money.