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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

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Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#181

Post by NeutronBoy »

mikeyouse wrote: post #119
cowmix wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads. My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new. Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

> When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil. Or your transmission fluid, or your spark plugs, or your muffler / exhaust pipe, or your catalytic converters, or your oxygen sensors, or about 100 other parts unique to ICE engines.. Many of which I've recently repaired on my 160k-mile car.

Many of those items aren't consumables, and you replace from wear and tear. Why wouldn't you think a temperature sensor in your Tesla battery will need to be replaced, similar to your O2 sensor in your ICE vehicle?

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#182

Post by dovdov »

epistasis wrote: post #106
dovdov wrote: post #28

So you get an electric model of the same car. It costs about double. Even if fuel prices double/triple, you can easy fill up at least for 10 years off the difference. Now, ask yourself how often do you replace your car. :)

The question is what is the lifespan of the car, and the total cost of ownership over that period, not how long a single person owns a car.

Well, you have to replace the battery after about 10 years. And yes, maybe the resale value is more important.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#183

Post by ZeroGravitas »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #34
arethuza wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny..." Isn't the real test how likely you are to be injured/killed per mile driven? Larger vehicles like SUVs might be safer if you are in an accident but that could be offset if they are more likely to actually be in an accident.

Its pretty much assumed the rate of accident is proportional to the driving miles. Does that comment mean, because of the limited range, electric vehicles have smaller exposure to accident risk? I guess a bicycle would do even better then.

It is true that the more people who cycle, the lower the number of transport related deaths and injuries.

Only some of these effects, e.g. less deaths from air pollution, apply to EVs though.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#184

Post by superuser2 »

Don't forget that EV ownership effectively requires land ownership. If you rent your parking space, good luck getting a charger installed. If you park on the street, good luck convincing the city to install more than a small handful of token EV spots.

A house in the suburbs with a garage that I could do electrical work on would account for the vast majority of the cost if I wanted an EV.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#185

Post by hvidgaard »

Unklejoe wrote: post #160
hvidgaard wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It provides marginal gains in efficiency Some automakers claim 15% increased efficiency and 50% increased low end torque. That is not marginal.

There is absolutely no way you will achieve a 50% increase in torque (at any RPM) just by switching from ordinary port injection to direct injection. Do you have any references to this claim? The efficiency improvements are possible, mainly due to the better atomization of the fuel, but 15% seems pretty generous if we're talking about improvements from DI alone. Keep in mind that many manufacturers are adopting multi…

They can control and modulate the injection far more with DI, because they're not limited to intake injection. I cannot give you much in the way of credible sources on the 50% claim from DI, only that I've read it from multiple sources - so treat it as marketing speak.

But even if we're "only" gaining 5% efficiency from DI, it's a pretty big deal. I'm fairly sure a GP3 or GP2 engine supplier have stated that DI provides better mileage, power, and torque, especially with an FI engine, compared to MPI.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#186

Post by arethuza »

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #180
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Larger vehicles have larger crumple zones and more steel all around. Are you saying larger vehicles are no safer than smaller ones? This runs counter to decades of conventional wisdom based on thousands of crash tests. See Edmunds, Consumer Reports, and other reputable organizations for corroboration of this.

Here's some numbers that establish that larger vehicles are generally safer: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/driver-death-rates Compare the death rates of small, tiny, and midsize sedans (2011 data is the latest). Then look at large SUVs. Huge difference. "All vehicles" = 28. Most of the large SUVs are single digits, most of the smaller cars are well above 28. Curiously, Ford Expedition 2WD is above average and is an…

I still think there is a need to normalize for the amount each vehicle is driven - so that it is deaths/injuries per mile driven not per time period.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#187

Post by Grishnakh »

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #180
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Larger vehicles have larger crumple zones and more steel all around. Are you saying larger vehicles are no safer than smaller ones? This runs counter to decades of conventional wisdom based on thousands of crash tests. See Edmunds, Consumer Reports, and other reputable organizations for corroboration of this.

Here's some numbers that establish that larger vehicles are generally safer: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/driver-death-rates Compare the death rates of small, tiny, and midsize sedans (2011 data is the latest). Then look at large SUVs. Huge difference. "All vehicles" = 28. Most of the large SUVs are single digits, most of the smaller cars are well above 28. Curiously, Ford Expedition 2WD is above average and is an…

>Most trucks are pretty safe, but the Ford F-150 4WD has above average death rates, and is the most popular single model of pickup truck. I wonder if this is because lots of people buy this truck who don't really know how to drive a truck.

No, it's probably because it's a truck with a body-on-frame chassis instead of a unibody chassis like any modern vehicle, and was designed for towing and load-hauling rather than crash protection. If you want crash protection, you need to buy a vehicle with a modern chassis that was expressly designed for it. Same goes for the Expedition. And yes, handling could be a factor too: these vehicles have horrible handling and can't avoid accidents the way a good-handling vehicle can, and will frequently roll over.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#188

Post by JoeAltmaier »

Grishnakh wrote: post #187
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's some numbers that establish that larger vehicles are generally safer: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/driver-death-rates Compare the death rates of small, tiny, and midsize sedans (2011 data is the latest). Then look at large SUVs. Huge difference. "All vehicles" = 28. Most of the large SUVs are single digits, most of the smaller cars are well above 28. Curiously, Ford Expedition 2WD is above average and is an…

>Most trucks are pretty safe, but the Ford F-150 4WD has above average death rates, and is the most popular single model of pickup truck. I wonder if this is because lots of people buy this truck who don't really know how to drive a truck. No, it's probably because it's a truck with a body-on-frame chassis instead of a unibody chassis like any modern vehicle, and was designed for towing and load-hauling rather than c…

I don't believe any American car will roll over in normal driving. They will skid. Unless a tire catches on a curb or something. So in normal highway driving rollover is very unlikely.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#189

Post by Grishnakh »

aninhumer wrote: post #179
JulianMorrison wrote: post #92

I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. - Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

>- Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. I'm not entirely convinced this will happen. Certainly owning a car will be a luxury, but it will be an affordable one (since we can clearly already afford it). I think there are enough advantages to car ownership, like instant availability, and personalised space, that mean many people will still choose to own a car instead of taking taxis.

It probably will depend a lot on where they live. The less dense their location, the more popular personally-owned cars will remain. Uber is great and all, but if you have to wait 15 minutes for an Uber ride to arrive, that's not very appealing compared to just hopping in your car and going. But if you live in a much more dense area and an Uber ride will arrive within a couple of minutes, that's a lot more doable, and saves you from the trouble and expense of maintenance, parking, etc.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#190

Post by aidenn0 »

kirrent wrote: post #174
greedo wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short of a revolution in Saudi Arabia, or something along those lines, oil/gas costs aren't going to go up 10x. Although gas isn't perfectly linked to oil prices, a barrel of oil isn't going to hit $450 anytime soon. There's far too much accessible oil at under $100/barrel for this to occur.

Exactly, people seem to forget how many oil sources are out there which become profitable at about $100 a barrel.

In addition, the fuel cost-per-mile (so I'm ignoring maintenance), is capped at about 30-40x that of an electric as we already know how to directly convert air and water into gasoline or ethanol substitutes at approximately that energy ratio (~10x the chemical energy, plus ~3-4x the thermodynamic efficiency of car versus battery cycle)
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