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SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

reuters.com

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Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#61
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like 'buying first stage engines from Russia' will have a hard time undercutting the 'reuse the first stage entirely' strategy, no?

ULA has an engine reuse plan. If they can get it working it'll be much more efficient than the hoverslam approach.

How?

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#62
post #3

This is exactly how the market is supposed to work - SpaceX is delivering the same service for a lower price and now ULA is finally forced to put serious effort into competing. I'm curious what they intend to do once the reusable first stage program gets going and launch costs drop even further.

Given that musk wants to fund the mars colonization program from the profit margin on commercial launches probably prices won't drop as far as they could. There's likely not going to be an all-out price war.

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#63
post #4
post #3

This is exactly how the market is supposed to work - SpaceX is delivering the same service for a lower price and now ULA is finally forced to put serious effort into competing. I'm curious what they intend to do once the reusable first stage program gets going and launch costs drop even further.

You're exactly right, except that I don't think ULA is going to have much trouble matching SpaceX's prices. They were in a monopoly situation before where they could name their own price (not really, but close enough). I could see even ULA's pricing pendulum swing all the other way: they could start bidding for contracts at a loss, using their other business sectors to prop up the space division until they drive Spac…

You are missing a very important data point: ULA receives nearly a billion dollars a year just to exist. They don't have to deliver a single vehicle. Free tax-payer money being gifted to the highest bidder.

THAT has to end. Then let's see them compete.

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#64
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If that argument actually carried any weight, then ULA wouldn't exist, but Martin, McDonnel Douglas Aerospace, and GD Convair would. Times have changed. I think Congress may have seen the error of its ways on this one.

At the time ULA was formed it wasn't an error. The US had a serious problem with rocket reliability and lost more than a few very expensive satellites. The devlopment or reliable and on demand access to space was a matter of national security.

ULA was formed at the end of 2006. The United States had no rocket reliability problem at that time. (Not counting rockets in development, of course.) The Enhanced Expendable Launch Vehicles (Altas V and Delta IV) had good track records when they were merged into ULA—each already had several flights under their belts at that point.

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#65
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I seem to remember that in the 1950's the US tried to design unitary multi-role fighter and it failed.

Not in the 1950s - that would have been the F-4 Phantom, and it was actually quite successful, in production from 1959 to 1979, and probably still flying (albeit totally hotrodded) by lots of air forces. You might be thinking of the F-111, which was supposed to be all things to all services. That was the 1960s. Or maybe the failed A-12, which was supposed to be an attack plane for all services. But you're correct, un…

Multiroles like the F-18, F-16 (excluding the original worthless LWF proposal), Su-30, Su-35, (today's, though not the original) MiG-29 and Su-27 variants, Typhoon, Tornado, Mirage, Rafale, and nearly every fixed-wing fighter employed by every air force today definitely do not have bad histories--some less stellar than others, but none bad.

Multirole capability is primarily a function of the weapons an aircraft can employ. This wasn't true in the 70s when targeting pods were binoculars and effective employment of aircraft in strike roles required decent performance in low-and-slow flight regimes, but we've been living with pods and PGMs coming out of our ears for 25 years now. Design tradeoffs for multiroles today are primarily those of cost and maintainability. You can pay out the ears and get larger twin-engine multiroles that strain logistics and wallets, opt for a single-engine F-16alike multirole that'll do everything nearly as well except for flying really high and really fast, or inexplicably go Eurocanard to pay F-22 prices for sub F-35 capabilities. Anyway, the point is that it's next to impossible not to make a multirole these days even if you're trying; if you can employ weapons with your jet, you're multirole.

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#66
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ULA has an engine reuse plan. If they can get it working it'll be much more efficient than the hoverslam approach.

How?

They're planning throwing away most of the first stage and catching the expensive engines on parachutes in mid air with a helicopter above the ocean then landing them on a barge softly enough not to damage them. They haven't actually done this or even built the engines to do it. They have represented this purely hypothetical approach as more efficient than reusing the entire first stage, because you sacrifice less payload weight and they claim refurb costs will be higher for full reuse. In practice if you can deliver whatever payload the customer wants they don't care how you do it, and of course refurb costs are likely to be almost entirely down to engine refurb, which they'll still need.

It's certainly not obviously more efficient or quicker reuse, it's likely to be slower and far more costly if they actually do manage it, so saying it is more efficient is just a way for ULA to try to sound like they are still a contender, even out their launches are still significantly more expensive and they haven't even tried to reuse engines.

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#67
SpaceX also does it 40% cheaper with over 38% MORE personnel. You'd think the ULA would be able to reduce costs with all these successful launches. I have a sneaking suspicion they increase the cost each time using the rationalization of, "look how many successful launches we have. You're paying for reliability."

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#68
post #4
post #3

This is exactly how the market is supposed to work - SpaceX is delivering the same service for a lower price and now ULA is finally forced to put serious effort into competing. I'm curious what they intend to do once the reusable first stage program gets going and launch costs drop even further.

You're exactly right, except that I don't think ULA is going to have much trouble matching SpaceX's prices. They were in a monopoly situation before where they could name their own price (not really, but close enough). I could see even ULA's pricing pendulum swing all the other way: they could start bidding for contracts at a loss, using their other business sectors to prop up the space division until they drive Spac…

I think they'll have some trouble. Those Russian engines they use aren't cheap, aren't getting any more plentiful, the machinery is getting progressively more scarce and the folks who designed/built them are either dead or no longer have sufficient knowledge to recreate them.

Not to mention the supply of those engines is highly predicated on maintaining a solid relationship with Russia for what that's worth.

Re: SpaceX undercut ULA rocket launch pricing by 40 percent: U.S. Air Force

#70
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beyond that, a logical argument can be made against putting all the national space eggs in one basket. If that argument actually carried any weight, then ULA wouldn't exist, but Martin, McDonnel Douglas Aerospace, and GD Convair would. That is, the DoD and the defense companies trot out any arguments they feel like, and hope that Congress accepts them. I concur on your analysis of companies that are fat and happy bid…

>If that argument actually carried any weight, then ULA wouldn't exist, but Martin, McDonnel Douglas Aerospace, and GD Convair would. Times have changed. I think Congress may have seen the error of its ways on this one.

Times have changed. I think Congress may have seen the error of its ways on this one

Either that or Congress realized they can't sweep under the rug how much taxpayer money they could be saving.

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