Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

arxiv.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 91 posts

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#61

Post by eridius »

stcredzero wrote: post #53
eridius wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not suggest that they have little agency around population control. What I suggested was that aliens will continue to want to have children, and so space will be needed for those children given that the parents won't be dying any time soon. Beyond that, if you have effectively infinite space and resources, there's no need at all to have even the slightest bit of population control. Population control is only ne…

I did not suggest that they have little agency around population control. What I suggested was that aliens will continue to want to have children So you suggested that their civilization as a whole had little agency around population control. Beyond that, if you have effectively infinite space and resources, there's no need at all to have even the slightest bit of population control. You're forgetting simple geometry…

You're ignoring constant factors. Space empires will likely expand much faster than dictated by population needs, to the degree that, as it spreads out, it will presumably experience a reduction in population density. Sure, with multiple star-faring empires, there may be a limit to how far in space a given empire can expand, but a Type III society is capable of building all sorts of gigastructures, including ringworlds and dyson spheres, so even a moderate expansion out of a single solar system will provide plenty of room for population expansion. It's also likely that immortal or long-lived species will end up having a relatively low number of children (given effective immortality and complete control over reproductive capability, it seems likely that aliens will choose to have a low number of children over their lifetime and will likely wait much longer before having their first child, which means even a simple doubling in population will take place over a relatively long time).

Given these reasonable assumptions, it seems likely to me that most space-faring civilizations of this level of technology will never experience any kind of pressure on living space. If you've ever read the Culture series (by Iain M. Banks) then you might reasonably expect such a civilization to "Sublime" before running out of space. Or to eventually alter themselves so as to remove the desire to procreate in a deliberate move to "retire" from the galactic stage.

I said "most" because there is of course the possibility that some species comes along that has the urge not just to procreate but to have as many children as possible as fast as possible, and manages to achieve this level of technology without ever altering this behavior. Such a species that is driven to expand its population as fast as possible may then experience restrictions on living space, but such a species would eventually have to enact population control, which could take the form of altering themselves to remove this urge to procreate as fast as possible and therefore will become just like "most space-faring civilizations".

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#62

Post by partisan »

eridius wrote: post #20
amelius wrote: post #15

Why would technologically advanced species explore the (mostly empty) universe, when they can sit inside their holodecks and have much more fun?

4 reasons come to mind: 1. Advanced societies have probably solved the aging problem, leading to either extremely long lives or effective immortality. As long as these societies keep reproducing (and they will, unless they deliberately engineer out the urge to procreate, which I consider to be unlikely), they'll need space to spread out. Sure, they could probably pack themselves like sardines into a single solar syst…

Re 3: what if they are born into virtual reality and don't know anything else? In that case, they might never emerge from that reality?

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#63

Post by eridius »

partisan wrote: post #62
eridius wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4 reasons come to mind: 1. Advanced societies have probably solved the aging problem, leading to either extremely long lives or effective immortality. As long as these societies keep reproducing (and they will, unless they deliberately engineer out the urge to procreate, which I consider to be unlikely), they'll need space to spread out. Sure, they could probably pack themselves like sardines into a single solar syst…

Re 3: what if they are born into virtual reality and don't know anything else? In that case, they might never emerge from that reality?

There's a school of thought that says we're already in a virtual reality.

As I understand it, the argument is basically that, assuming true high-fidelity virtual reality is possible, then it's likely that any society that advances far enough technologically will eventually create a virtual world and populate it (or let it populate itself) with virtual beings that don't know they're in a virtual reality. Given this assumption, if you let the virtual reality run long enough, then the virtual beings inside the virtual reality will eventually end up creating yet another layer of virtual reality. Assuming this is possible at all, it then follows that there could be an effectively infinite number of virtual realities layered inside each other, and under those circumstances, it's extremely unlikely that our reality happens to be the outermost "real" reality but is instead somewhere in the stack of virtual realities.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#64

Post by tpeo »

coldtea wrote: post #33

They call economics a "dismal science", but I find such attempts at 'astrophysics' (or whatever this and stuff like the Drake equation are called) even more dismal... Tons of unknown variables filled-in with vigorous hand waving, ad-hoc and unproven assumptions left and right, etc, and some high school math thrown in for good measure...

The "dismal science" thing has nothing to do with scientific standards. It was an expression coined and used by Thomas Carlyle in satirical essay in favor of slavery to refer to political economy because economist's support for emancipation.

But I get what you mean.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#65

Post by stcredzero »

tremon wrote: post #47
stcredzero wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are very strong reasons to believe that all civilizations (multitudes of independent, individualistic semi-cooperating sentient creatures) are inherently chaotic and therefore unstable. There are loads of arguments as to why they are doomed to fail, or to try to expand exponentially. If we take a cold and realistic eye to technological civilizations, they do seem doomed to self-destruct or "sublime" into someth…

I think you take a particularly narrow view of what constitutes a "society". Arguably, current human society is the product of over 10,000 years of continuous development. Yes, there have been numerous changes in structure and power, but our fundamental "human" identity hasn't really changed in that time. I would also argue that life itself has proven remarkably long-term stable on our planet. Granted, it has not bee…

I think you take a particularly narrow view of what constitutes a "society". Arguably, current human society is the product of over 10,000 years of continuous development. Yes, there have been numerous changes in structure and power, but our fundamental "human" identity hasn't really changed in that time.

Sounds like you are the one who has a narrow view of "society," rather. In the abstract, it only need be something like "a multitude of cooperating but competing, independent self-preserving, self-advocating sentient interests." That's fairly abstract while still being a sure recipe for highly non-linear and chaotic effects.

Even if we do not reach type-III, that does not necessarily preclude Earth from producing a type-III society in the future.

But then you're setting up a situation where a series of chaotic and unstable arrangements snuff themselves out or flare-out in a puff of singularity-colored smoke, ending with the appearance of the first stable meta-societal form.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#66

Post by stcredzero »

eridius wrote: post #61
stcredzero wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not suggest that they have little agency around population control. What I suggested was that aliens will continue to want to have children So you suggested that their civilization as a whole had little agency around population control. Beyond that, if you have effectively infinite space and resources, there's no need at all to have even the slightest bit of population control. You're forgetting simple geometry…

You're ignoring constant factors. Space empires will likely expand much faster than dictated by population needs, to the degree that, as it spreads out, it will presumably experience a reduction in population density. Sure, with multiple star-faring empires, there may be a limit to how far in space a given empire can expand, but a Type III society is capable of building all sorts of gigastructures, including ringworl…

I am a big fan of The Culture. Also, it sounds like you just posited that advanced civilizations would effectively exercise population control, otherwise avoid shortages and avoid the necessity of rapid spatial expansion though technological means.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#67

Post by Mtinie »

breischl wrote: post #60
Semiapies wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could direct the waste in two beams perpendicular to the plane of the galaxy, in order to balance net thrust. I question how stealthy that would really make you, though. If someone was bothering to look for stealthy civilizations, they'd just have to scatter some observatories around their region of the galaxy, then watch. Eventually, your structure would occult a star from the POV of one of those observatories,…

Of course you'd need two beams. If you used a single beam it would be a stellar rocket... which might be fun in different ways. Certainly gives the phrase "interstellar warfare" a different meaning. I realize this is all space opera, not hard SF. It's still fun.

"But Sir, these are the correct stellar coordinates for the Zorgoph home world! They should be right here!"

"There's nothing here, Captain. Nothing at all. So you're saying that they moved an entire star system? In the last solar cycle?"

Good times, good times.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#68

Post by TheCoelacanth »

ep103 wrote: post #39
coldtea wrote: post #33

They call economics a "dismal science", but I find such attempts at 'astrophysics' (or whatever this and stuff like the Drake equation are called) even more dismal... Tons of unknown variables filled-in with vigorous hand waving, ad-hoc and unproven assumptions left and right, etc, and some high school math thrown in for good measure...

I think you're taking a wrong look at this paper. This paper isn't actually about whether or not type 3 societies exist. This paper is about the fact that there appear to be no galactic clusters that show a particularly abnormal, greater, amount of electromagnetic emission than the known standard. Which, actually, I'm pretty dang surprised hasn't been searched for already. Then, in order to be a little whimsical and…

Obviously, this result is just because there is a type 3 society in every galaxy.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#69

Post by eridius »

stcredzero wrote: post #66
eridius wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're ignoring constant factors. Space empires will likely expand much faster than dictated by population needs, to the degree that, as it spreads out, it will presumably experience a reduction in population density. Sure, with multiple star-faring empires, there may be a limit to how far in space a given empire can expand, but a Type III society is capable of building all sorts of gigastructures, including ringworl…

I am a big fan of The Culture . Also, it sounds like you just posited that advanced civilizations would effectively exercise population control, otherwise avoid shortages and avoid the necessity of rapid spatial expansion though technological means.

My belief is that advanced civilizations would naturally end up with what is effectively population control, without any actual active work towards that goal. As birth control becomes easy and prevalent, unwanted pregnancies stop happening. And it seems reasonable to me that, given greatly extended life span / effective immortality, people will naturally choose to wait longer before having children (if they have any at all) and will have relatively few children and/or will have a long duration between children. So this does pretty much amount to population control, without having any actual restriction on any given individual's ability to have children.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#70

Post by maaku »

monochromatic wrote: post #10
maaku wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"A fire upon the deep" by Vernor Vinge is an interesting exploration of this. In the book different (and more desirable) physical laws take effect in places of low average matter density, so intelligent civilizations migrate out of their galaxies into the sparsely populated galactic rim.

I'm still hoping there will be a fourth novel. He never really explored what was going on with the zones of thought.

Well to be honest I found the Tines more interesting and so I'm glad he focused on them. But the zones of thought did strike me as a creative way to both solve the Fermi paradox and have space opera without otherwise breaking the rules of hard sci-fi.
Post reply on HN