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Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

arxiv.org

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Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#51

Post by api »

stcredzero wrote: post #32
api wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This hypothesis works best if we propose an extremely narrow developmental range. Of course since we have basically no data, we can't actually argue either way beyond vague hand-wavey speculation. You can't calculate standard deviation from a sample size of one.

In general, sub percentage point uniformity is taken as evidence of a very strong synchronization mechanism. The extreme uniformity of the cosmic ray background was taken as evidence of inflation, which is quite an extreme position, if you look at the numbers. That such a synchronization mechanism should work with such precision over the entire universe seems very unlikely. Filtering would not require synchronization…

The only way I can imagine it being that synchronized is if evolution itself is somehow tightly coupled to cosmic inflation.

Here's the speculation in more detail:

Evolution can be viewed as an information transfer mechanism that learns about the universe and transfers that information into the genome. (This is one interpretation found in evolutionary information theory.) As the universe inflates there is more total information in it, and therefore more information for evolution to learn. At certain points, a kind of information density "critical mass" is reached and phase transitions occur: the emergence of life, complex life, cooperative/multicellular life, higher order intelligence, industrialization and complex society, etc. Since the total amount of information in the universe is (we're speculating) tied directly to the arrow of time, this occurs simultaneously everywhere at approximately the same time.

Again this is hypothesis bordering on speculation since we do not know of any mechanism that directly couples information content to cosmic inflation like this, or even how we would go about measuring such a thing objectively. For instance it's not possible to differentiate between random and encrypted data using Shannon information measures, so what statistic would you use?

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#52

Post by largote »

state_less wrote: post #43

Why should an advanced civilization necessarily create the artifact mentioned in the article. The conclusion because we don't see this artifact, so type III societies don't exists seems too strong. Maybe they don't create giant veils around galaxies and instead have virtualized themselves, or can simply convert matter to energy at will. What use would there be in wrapping a giant ball of dust around a galaxy when you…

The problem with the Kardashev scale is that it ties the advancement of a civilization with its energy consumption.

In order to qualify as a Type III civilization, you pretty much need to harvest ALL of the energy in a galaxy.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#53

Post by stcredzero »

eridius wrote: post #34
stcredzero wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Advanced societies have probably solved the aging problem, leading to either extremely long lives or effective immortality. As long as these societies keep reproducing (and they will, unless they deliberately engineer out the urge to procreate, which I consider to be unlikely), they'll need space to spread out. If they had as little agency around the issue of population control as you suggest, this makes me questi…

I did not suggest that they have little agency around population control. What I suggested was that aliens will continue to want to have children, and so space will be needed for those children given that the parents won't be dying any time soon. Beyond that, if you have effectively infinite space and resources, there's no need at all to have even the slightest bit of population control. Population control is only ne…

I did not suggest that they have little agency around population control. What I suggested was that aliens will continue to want to have children

So you suggested that their civilization as a whole had little agency around population control.

Beyond that, if you have effectively infinite space and resources, there's no need at all to have even the slightest bit of population control.

You're forgetting simple geometry. Space empires can only expand proportional to n^3, while their population could potentially expand proportional to k^n. Also, in a situation where there are multiple star-faring "species," a hegemonic, exponentially expanding entity might well be viewed by others as worse than obnoxious.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#54

Post by stcredzero »

api wrote: post #51
stcredzero wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general, sub percentage point uniformity is taken as evidence of a very strong synchronization mechanism. The extreme uniformity of the cosmic ray background was taken as evidence of inflation, which is quite an extreme position, if you look at the numbers. That such a synchronization mechanism should work with such precision over the entire universe seems very unlikely. Filtering would not require synchronization…

The only way I can imagine it being that synchronized is if evolution itself is somehow tightly coupled to cosmic inflation. Here's the speculation in more detail: Evolution can be viewed as an information transfer mechanism that learns about the universe and transfers that information into the genome. (This is one interpretation found in evolutionary information theory.) As the universe inflates there is more total…

Then I'll invoke Occam's Razor. A simple filter explains the situation more cleanly, and doesn't need the addition of a wild-sounding mechanism that affects evolution that's attached to inflation.

Furthermore, if it has such a powerful and pervasive effect on evolution, why haven't we already discovered it in our studies of evolution to date? We live on a planet chock full of evolving life.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#55

Post by kabdib »

Harnessing stellar output might not be that interesting. Power density inside stars kind of sucks (about that of a reptile) and stars have bad failure modes.

You're probably better off disassembling the suckers and storing their matter in a sensible way, rather than have it sit there, burning. Stars are kind of like trash fires; maybe we should be looking for less energy in a type III civ, not shielding.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#56

Post by heavenlyhash »

kabdib wrote: post #55

Harnessing stellar output might not be that interesting. Power density inside stars kind of sucks (about that of a reptile) and stars have bad failure modes. You're probably better off disassembling the suckers and storing their matter in a sensible way, rather than have it sit there, burning. Stars are kind of like trash fires; maybe we should be looking for less energy in a type III civ, not shielding.

Just to play devil's advocate -- density isn't everything either.

Plants on Earth play an incredible optimization game. Water is necessary not just for chemical metabolism, but because throwing it away is an essential part of the internal material transport systems of a plant. Evaporation in the leaves creates a relatively lower osmotic pressure in the higher levels of the plant. Between capillary action and the slight but insistent pull to replace evaporated water in the leaves, plants have a pumping mechanism with essentially nil energy input: minerals and nutrients gathered in the roots just ride on up with the tide.

Stars may be a similar story for efficient fusion. Sure, with sufficiently advanced technology, I can make inordinately denser energy sources with less boil-off. But do I want to? Maybe letting the brute physics of a gravity well do the job simply has unbeatable efficiency -- just like evaporation as one end of a pump for plants on Earth is clearly no comparison to any motorized pump for volume, but for cost-effect, nothing else comes close.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#57

Post by stcredzero »

state_less wrote: post #46
stcredzero wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but if someone is off by just one percentage point, then they're 13 million years ahead. There needs to be something so unlikely about sentient life, that it only arises approximately one at a time in each galaxy, or the Fermi paradox would apply.

I think the Fermi paradox has a hidden assumption, that we are intelligent enough to detect aliens. We couldn't detect that the earth revolves around the sun till quite recent in our (genetic beings on earth) evolution. I say give it a few years, we'll figure out that aliens are too alien right now to us. Computationally speaking, our brains are quite limited, though we have recently gained the ability to share ideas…

https://xkcd.com/638/

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#58

Post by pjdorrell »

He estimates f_l, the probability of life arising in a habitable planet, as 0.1.

Abiogenesis has never been observed to occur independently of its presumed occurrence when life started on Earth.

Given the current state of scientific knowledge on this topic, the only certain lower bound on this number is the probability of molecules in a suitable "organic soup" arranging themselves into a self-contained bacterium. And that probability is a _very_ small number.

If f_l is _very_ small, then there is no need to be pessimistic about our own long-term survival. We see no advanced alien civilisations, because there is no other life out there of any kind - the rest of the observable universe is sterile.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#59

Post by Semiapies »

breischl wrote: post #50
CamperBob2 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't require that a Dyson Sphere be an isotropic radiator, though. It could be emitting its heat in a different direction.

Well, if you emitted it all in a beam away from the plane of your galaxy, that might make you very stealthy. That would impart thrust on the sphere... which if it wasn't perfectly balanced might cause it to wobble, and then start rotating... ... and now we have a sci-fi reason for quasars. :)

You could direct the waste in two beams perpendicular to the plane of the galaxy, in order to balance net thrust.

I question how stealthy that would really make you, though. If someone was bothering to look for stealthy civilizations, they'd just have to scatter some observatories around their region of the galaxy, then watch. Eventually, your structure would occult a star from the POV of one of those observatories, or they'd pick up your beam scattering in interstellar gasses or dust clouds.

Re: Type III Societies (Apparently) Do Not Exist

#60

Post by breischl »

Semiapies wrote: post #59
breischl wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you emitted it all in a beam away from the plane of your galaxy, that might make you very stealthy. That would impart thrust on the sphere... which if it wasn't perfectly balanced might cause it to wobble, and then start rotating... ... and now we have a sci-fi reason for quasars. :)

You could direct the waste in two beams perpendicular to the plane of the galaxy, in order to balance net thrust. I question how stealthy that would really make you, though. If someone was bothering to look for stealthy civilizations, they'd just have to scatter some observatories around their region of the galaxy, then watch. Eventually, your structure would occult a star from the POV of one of those observatories,…

Of course you'd need two beams. If you used a single beam it would be a stellar rocket... which might be fun in different ways. Certainly gives the phrase "interstellar warfare" a different meaning.

I realize this is all space opera, not hard SF. It's still fun.

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