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End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

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Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US federal debt was even higher in the wake of World War II. The US government did not run surpluses and deleverage in the following decades. The economy grew, without hyperinflation, and the debt became irrelevant. The solution to high levels of debt is sustainable economic growth, not deleveraging. Mass deleveraging would be an economic catastrophe.

Wasn't the US's situation post-ww2 sort of unique? This sort of sounds like "just win the lottery again" type advice.

> Wasn't the US's situation post-ww2 sort of unique?

No, not really.

The US was not blown to bits, requiring a massive rebuild, nor did it particularly benefit from the blown-to-bits status of Europe; exports and imports were a small part of the economy.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#92
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US federal debt was even higher in the wake of World War II. The US government did not run surpluses and deleverage in the following decades. The economy grew, without hyperinflation, and the debt became irrelevant. The solution to high levels of debt is sustainable economic growth, not deleveraging. Mass deleveraging would be an economic catastrophe.

US still has a significant chunk of WWII debt after one of the greatest sustained economic booms of all time. Growth really is not the answer. Inflation sounds great, just default without technically defaulting, until you actually see what it does to the economy. The real solution is to simply spend vastly less money accepting that pain now is better than letting the US become a failed state.

If you could really direct things on a massive scale that could work.

But I fear each little piece will scream bloody murder if it's cheese gets cut off and it becomes feasibly impossible to do what needs to be done.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't the US's situation post-ww2 sort of unique? This sort of sounds like "just win the lottery again" type advice.

> Wasn't the US's situation post-ww2 sort of unique? No, not really. The US was not blown to bits, requiring a massive rebuild, nor did it particularly benefit from the blown-to-bits status of Europe; exports and imports were a small part of the economy.

Post WWII US was ~50% of world manufacturing. That's a rather strong starting position.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#94
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US federal debt was even higher in the wake of World War II. The US government did not run surpluses and deleverage in the following decades. The economy grew, without hyperinflation, and the debt became irrelevant. The solution to high levels of debt is sustainable economic growth, not deleveraging. Mass deleveraging would be an economic catastrophe.

US still has a significant chunk of WWII debt after one of the greatest sustained economic booms of all time. Growth really is not the answer. Inflation sounds great, just default without technically defaulting, until you actually see what it does to the economy. The real solution is to simply spend vastly less money accepting that pain now is better than letting the US become a failed state.

> US still has a significant chunk of WWII debt after one of the greatest sustained economic booms of all time.

Let's pretend this is true. (I doubt it.)

Let's keep in mind that US debt is owed in bonds, redeemable in US dollars.

If I get a 30 year mortgage in 1945 and simply rollover the debt whenever it comes due, but my wealth has increased dramatically, my mortgage does not matter. If I take out a 100k mortgage and then go on to found Apple and become a multibillionaire, then yes, growth was the answer. My debt may not have changed, but it is completely and utterly irrelevant when considering my financial situation.

> Inflation sounds great, just default without technically defaulting, until you actually see what it does to the economy.

Which is why the 50s and 60s were known as horrific economic times, right?

Assuming by "inflation" you just mean an increase in the money supply - quintupling the money supply since 2009 doesn't seem to have led to the sky falling.

> The real solution is to simply spend vastly less money accepting that pain now is better than letting the US become a failed state.

No, the real solution is to spend more money now, taking advantage of historically low interest rates that at times have been negative in real terms, to do whatever you can to kickstart economic growth, and let the debt inflate away 'naturally'. Preferably you do this by investing in infrastructure projects, education, and science, and other things that produce real benefit, but if you want to fill mines with hundred dollar bills and fill them in so others can mine them out, that's fine too. In this case there is no pain.

Spending less money now isn't accepting necessary pain, it's causing unnecessary pain.

The US will not become a failed state because of mild inflation. Hyperinflation will never be a problem in the US barring a world war or huge resource or natural catastrophe. People have been preaching the doom-and-gloom inflation story for probably a century now. Every year, it's just around the corner.

Well, it isn't. I can only speculate why the story is so popular. I can only assume that people have been taught to internalize all debt as a moral issue: less debt is Good, more debt is Bad, and there must therefore be dire consequences visited upon the guilty nations that don't treat debt as it must be treated. But the debt of sovereign, money-printing governments bears no resemblance to the debt of individuals, and there really are no consequences to a government being in debt forever. (Actually there's no consequences to individuals being in debt forever either - I am in perpetual debt to my credit card company, and spend the majority of my paycheck on it...but I pay it off every month.) It would in fact be a bad thing if there were no US bonds to purchase; you've suddenly eliminated a huge source of safe investment from the market.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#95
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wasn't the US's situation post-ww2 sort of unique? No, not really. The US was not blown to bits, requiring a massive rebuild, nor did it particularly benefit from the blown-to-bits status of Europe; exports and imports were a small part of the economy.

Post WWII US was ~50% of world manufacturing. That's a rather strong starting position.

Calling it "world manufacturing" is misleading when you look at exports and imports as a share of GDP.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/11/19/opinion/11191...

As you can see, other than a brief Marshall-plan spike in the 40s, exports and imports as a share of the US economy didn't return to pre-Depression levels until 1974. And right now, the US does a whole lot more trade than it did after World War II.

It makes intuitive sense our "starting position" wasn't that great, because poor, blown-up countries don't make great customers. The US economic success after World War II was domestic, not trade-based.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry this is taking your comment on a tangent, but it is not exactly peace time for the USA, nor has it been since the 1960's or arguably since WW2 if you take the cold war into account. The USA has been involved in one or another war for literally decades now...or does minor wars not count?

Post WW2 has been one of the most peaceful periods ever in human history. It might not be peace in the absolute sense, but it's about the closest humans have ever achieved.

I doubt the people or Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Vietnam, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Bosnia, Kuwait, Somalia, SAR or Serbia would agree with you, to name just a few...

If I may ask, how do you get to your statement? Is there some metric one can look at to determine it?

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#97
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Post WWII US was ~50% of world manufacturing. That's a rather strong starting position.

Calling it "world manufacturing" is misleading when you look at exports and imports as a share of GDP. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/11/19/opinion/11191... As you can see, other than a brief Marshall-plan spike in the 40s, exports and imports as a share of the US economy didn't return to pre-Depression levels until 1974. And right now, the US does a whole lot more trade than it did after World War II. It m…

Looking at the total quantity of trade misses how profitable that trade is. Saudi Arabia gained wealth by selling oil at massive margins not just massive amounts of oil.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#98
post #14

I think it can get much worse than that. I don't know why people think the current levels of accumulation of debt are sustainable but there is a limit to what even the US can roll in term of debt. All developped nations are at around 100% debt to GDP, more than 200% if you include private debt, and growing at 3-5% per annum. Now does anyone really think that sometime soon any developped country will start making publ…

The US federal debt was even higher in the wake of World War II. The US government did not run surpluses and deleverage in the following decades. The economy grew, without hyperinflation, and the debt became irrelevant. The solution to high levels of debt is sustainable economic growth, not deleveraging. Mass deleveraging would be an economic catastrophe.

Isn't economic growth the same thing as mass deleveraging?

You're generating more cash for the same amount of debt, reducing your leverage multiple or percentage.

The question is how to get there when the global economy is not doing well and China debt/official numbers can't be trusted.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#99
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US still has a significant chunk of WWII debt after one of the greatest sustained economic booms of all time. Growth really is not the answer. Inflation sounds great, just default without technically defaulting, until you actually see what it does to the economy. The real solution is to simply spend vastly less money accepting that pain now is better than letting the US become a failed state.

> US still has a significant chunk of WWII debt after one of the greatest sustained economic booms of all time. Let's pretend this is true. (I doubt it.) Let's keep in mind that US debt is owed in bonds, redeemable in US dollars. If I get a 30 year mortgage in 1945 and simply rollover the debt whenever it comes due, but my wealth has increased dramatically, my mortgage does not matter. If I take out a 100k mortgage a…

Your assuming US was paying all of the interest on debt. They where rolling over principle and interest which causes things to spiral.

Also, US had negative inflation in 1955 and overall low rates from 1950-1969. It only spiked after that. 1974 to 1982 where generally bad. http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-in...

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#100
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling it "world manufacturing" is misleading when you look at exports and imports as a share of GDP. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/11/19/opinion/11191... As you can see, other than a brief Marshall-plan spike in the 40s, exports and imports as a share of the US economy didn't return to pre-Depression levels until 1974. And right now, the US does a whole lot more trade than it did after World War II. It m…

Looking at the total quantity of trade misses how profitable that trade is. Saudi Arabia gained wealth by selling oil at massive margins not just massive amounts of oil.

Those percentages aren't volumes, they're dollars. The profitability is built in to the numbers.
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