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iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

nytimes.com

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Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#261

Post by mturmon »

jf wrote: post #183
mturmon wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was at a NASA workshop in Mountain View. An informational placard outside had two plots of growth, one with an unchecked exponential curve, and one with a curve that comes up to a peak and goes down. It asked which made more sense as a growth curve. My idealized mathematical self thought, naturally, the exponential growth curve, because it expresses what happens when y-dot equals alpha y. But I asked a passing Calt…

I'd really like to see this placard. Are you able to find a copy of that placard online?

I tried and failed before I posted. It was a metal sign placed outside "Building 3" (the Spanish-style place) here: http://naccenter.arc.nasa.gov

It's not readily accessible, and there seems to be no street-view coverage there. The photos listed nearby on google maps have a location that is far enough off to be useless.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#262

Post by reubenswartz »

For me, the main reason to upgrade phones is to get a better camera, so I can take better pictures of my kids. Other than that, most of the features are "nice to have". Don't get me wrong, I like Touch ID, I like the big screen of the plus (but not the size and slipperiness of the phone), but nothing has been a compelling upgrade, other than camera improvements.

In many ways, this is a credit to Apple doing a great job. On the other hand, the real challenge with driving iOS upgrades is software. There's no killer app that requires the latest hardware, unless you care about games and maybe a few drawing apps on the iPad.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#265

Post by r00fus »

Retric wrote: post #128
eli wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really buy that. Can you point to any evidence people are updating devices less frequently? Apple sold more iPhones in Q1 of 2016 then they did in Q1 of 2015 so are you extrapolating from a single down quarter?

I personally did not upgrade from the 4s because the subsidy ended. Relatively the iPhone 6 vs 5 was an unusually big jump for Apple which confuses the issue.

Data >> anecdotes

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#266

Post by hiddencost »

reddytowns wrote: post #252
tptacek wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time you buy a stock in the anticipation that its price will rise, or, for that matter, buy VFINX with the expectation that the total value of the S&P 500 will rise, you are putting money on a bet that companies will grow.

Not necessarily. If a company makes a profit, then theoretically so do your shares, whether in terms of share price increase or dividends.

So, actually, fun fact, this is false!

The stock price doesn't just reflect the amount of money the company has. The stock price reflects the "fully loaded" expected value of that stock. That means it prices in ALL expectations.

If the company you buy performs exactly as expected, then you don't actually make any money because you paid the price that reflected those expectations, so whatever dividends the company issues will only compensate you for the premium you paid. So the stock has to outperform expectations before it's worth buying.

The "expected value" of the company actually discounts dividends and the like, because the value of money in the future is less than the value of money today.

There's an amusing side point to this, which is that a perpetual annuity actually has a finite value [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetuity

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#267

Post by shawkinaw »

skywhopper wrote: post #105

It probably doesn't help that the subsidy model has completely changed. But personally, I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away. I was so ready to upgrade when the contract on my 4 expired. It was really a pain to use after a couple of years. But my 5S has now lasted me two and a half years and other than wishing I had more storage capacity, there's real…

Can anyone shed some light on why the subsidy model is going/has gone away? It seems to me cell providers would not want to stop essentially requiring 2-year contracts, so why have they? Fear of government action, or market competition? Or was the subsidy model actually bad for the networks somehow?

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#268

Post by teuobk »

rrggrr wrote: post #119
nugget wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More likely mobile is headed quietly down the path of the PC - fewer generational improvements means people keep devices longer and there isn't as much of a reason to buy new hardware so sales flatline. Great business still but Wall Street hates that narrative. They want the next hot growth market -- VR perhaps when its killer app moment arrives.

I'll say this: Amazon Echo cut Apple's growth balls right off. That's a $2b revenue business Siri can kiss goodbye.

I wouldn't write them off yet. Apple has been late to several markets (e.g., iPod and iPhone) and yet ended up doing quite well in them.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#269

Post by r00fus »

reubenswartz wrote: post #262

For me, the main reason to upgrade phones is to get a better camera, so I can take better pictures of my kids. Other than that, most of the features are "nice to have". Don't get me wrong, I like Touch ID, I like the big screen of the plus (but not the size and slipperiness of the phone), but nothing has been a compelling upgrade, other than camera improvements. In many ways, this is a credit to Apple doing a great j…

Dunno about you, but TouchID is indispensable to me. I would not buy another phone without it (or something as secure).

With TouchID + strong alphanumeric password, I can be secure in my person. My data is far more valuable than just the hunk of metal and glass it resides on.

I think Apple should do an expansion of their 2008 iFund, but writ bigger (and maybe focused on the watch and apple TV).

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#270

Post by yesmotherfucker »

johansch wrote: post #6
ericabiz wrote: post #4

I run a repair shop. We've repaired over 3,000 Apple devices for customers. We are always chatting with our customers, so we get a ton of feedback from them about what they're doing with their phones. We hear a few things consistently: 1) Providers have switched from "free upgrades every 2 years" to a plan cost and a monthly phone cost, so people now really know how much their phone costs--and many would rather save…

(Lots of interesting data; upvoted.) > It's $79 for us to fix an iPhone 5/5C/5S screen right now Interesting, since I have a 5s with a broken screen glass that I haven't bothered getting fixed yet. :) It used to be quite a bit more, I think? Have you figured out how to separate the glass (etc) from the actual display, or have replacement display+glass packages just gotten cheaper? (If you are replacing the display -…

> (Lots of interesting data; upvoted.)

That was a series of anecdotes, the plural of which do not constitute "data".

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