iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs • Hacker News Board

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#131

Post by erydo » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:52 PM UTC

This is a small anecdote, but: I'm happy with my current iPhone and the current models aren't additionally compelling enough to me to upgrade.

I have an iPhone 5S and don't want a larger one. When the iPhone SE came out, I was excited until I found out it didn't have force touch, which was the main interesting feature to me about the new lineup. Other than Apple Pay it seems I have very little reason to upgrade until this one dies or breaks. I don't see being satisfied with their product as a black mark against them.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#132

Post by simonh » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:52 PM UTC

skywhopper wrote: post #105

It probably doesn't help that the subsidy model has completely changed. But personally, I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away. I was so ready to upgrade when the contract on my 4 expired. It was really a pain to use after a couple of years. But my 5S has now lasted me two and a half years and other than wishing I had more storage capacity, there's real…

The only iDevice that's not still in use in my family is my first, an iPhone 3G. My youngest has my 3GS. The 4 is with my father in law, etc. My first iPad, a v2, is with my sister in law in China, she uses it to Skype to us. These things just keep on going.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#133

Post by notatoad » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:52 PM UTC

mmanfrin wrote: post #79

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #70

I'm curious what other people think about the ecosystem as a catalyst, in particular Apple Pay. It seems to be that squeezing between iPhone owners and everyday purchases would be very lucrative.

It seems to be that squeezing between iPhone owners and everyday purchases would be very lucrative And something that Banks will very strongly oppose. How many places can you use Apple Pay right now? I love Android Pay, but the only store I can use it at is Walgreens -- no where else I go takes it. Banks still hold a huge amount of power at the point-of-sale market, and they will not give up their margins to Apple.

This is different in the rest of the world that has NFC card terminals rather than mag stripe, and it will change in the US as the new EMV readers roll out.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#134

Post by mturmon » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:53 PM UTC

Esau wrote: post #78

bsirkia wrote: post #47

Incredible that this is the first time in 13 years that Apple hasn't posted quarterly growth. I'm sure there will be lots of "Apple has lost its ability to innovate" articles based on this, but growing for the last ~52 straight quarters is insane. And I don't think one quarter without growth is enough evidence to conclude "Apple may be reaching the saturation point among potential customers in some countries" or "oth…

Personally, I wonder who though Apple's growth would never end. This happens to every company sooner or later.

I was at a NASA workshop in Mountain View. An informational placard outside had two plots of growth, one with an unchecked exponential curve, and one with a curve that comes up to a peak and goes down. It asked which made more sense as a growth curve.

My idealized mathematical self thought, naturally, the exponential growth curve, because it expresses what happens when y-dot equals alpha y.

But I asked a passing Caltech astrophysicist, who (not surprisingly) gave a better reply. The curve that flattens out and goes down, he said, because exponential growth is impossible to sustain. Physical limits on some aspect of the system must intervene and impose a new law.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#135

Post by blondie9x » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:54 PM UTC

prklmn wrote: post #109

blondie9x wrote: post #64

The era where cell phone companies offered phone subsidies as trade for a customer's long term commitment has ended. The impact this is having and will continue to have on smartphone sales is profound. It is much more likely that customers will upgrade their devices less frequently. We are already beginning to see the impact in Apple and Samsung earnings.

This is false. Tim just said on the call that users are upgrading to the 6s at a higher rate than they did for the 5s.

This is the first quarter where we can see the impact of the changes. Be ready for its impact on future quarters.

http://recode.net/2015/12/30/att-confirms-it-is-doing-away-w...

Here is data on drop:

iPhone

First quarter of 2015: 61.2 million First quarter of 2016: 51.2 million, down 16%

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#136

Post by Mister_Snuggles » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:55 PM UTC

jws wrote: post #124

mmanfrin wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to be that squeezing between iPhone owners and everyday purchases would be very lucrative And something that Banks will very strongly oppose. How many places can you use Apple Pay right now? I love Android Pay, but the only store I can use it at is Walgreens -- no where else I go takes it. Banks still hold a huge amount of power at the point-of-sale market, and they will not give up their margins to Apple.

US here… my pharmacy, grocery, gasoline station, and computer hardware store all take it. It's not like I spend money anywhere else. (Also three of those four have negligently compromised my credit card numbers in the past, so I appreciate giving them as little data as possible.) Only one restaurant I go to takes it, the one that has little terminals at each table. I'm not sure how the mechanics will play out for res…

Here in Canada, we have mobile debit/credit terminals that the waitstaff bring to the tables. They currently support swipe, chip & pin, and tap, so I assume that they'd support Apple Pay without too much trouble.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#137

Post by noir-york » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:55 PM UTC

allisthemoist wrote: post #113

noir-york wrote: post #83

$175 billion in buy backs?! Wow, its expensive propping up the share price to keep Wall Street happy... There is only so much hardware innovation, there are only so many people on the planet with $600 to spend on a mobile phone. Apple should really move whole heartedly into services (as evidenced by revenue up 20%); build a gmail / dropbox competitor - stop thinking of itself as a consumer hardware maker, that era is…

Why do you think the era is over? Are people buying less cellphones and laptops?

The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones. Isn't google still not a search company, but its moved past its 'search' era and now its focus on other things. Apple will always sell hardware, but it needs to orient to its next phase of growth, and that ain't hardware.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#138

Post by wvenable » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:56 PM UTC

skywhopper wrote: post #105

It probably doesn't help that the subsidy model has completely changed. But personally, I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away. I was so ready to upgrade when the contract on my 4 expired. It was really a pain to use after a couple of years. But my 5S has now lasted me two and a half years and other than wishing I had more storage capacity, there's real…

I have an iPhone 5 (not S) and the performance is starting to get on the frustrating side. But it's only now getting to the point where that is an issue.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#139

Post by mikestew » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:56 PM UTC

cthulhujr wrote: post #121

>Its newest smartphone, the four-inch iPhone SE, went on sale in late March, too late to affect the most recent quarterly results, but analysts hope to get more insight into how it is selling. Went to the Apple Store in my large metro and they were out of almost every model. The associate searched other stores and there wasn't much within 1500 miles. Anecdotal, but it looks like the demand is outpacing the supply of…

Two to three weeks from the Apple Store when I checked this morning. I don't know if it's heavier-than-expected demand, or if they just don't keep that many in the pipeline (which I guess amounts to the same thing). My wife just broke hers (yes, again), so the plan is to at some point give her my 6S and I get a new 5SE, because I want my smaller screen back. It would seem that perhaps I'm not the only one.

Re: iPhone Sales Drop, and Apple’s 13-Year Surge Ebbs

#140

Post by yoodenvranx » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 9:56 PM UTC

skywhopper wrote: post #105

It probably doesn't help that the subsidy model has completely changed. But personally, I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away. I was so ready to upgrade when the contract on my 4 expired. It was really a pain to use after a couple of years. But my 5S has now lasted me two and a half years and other than wishing I had more storage capacity, there's real…

> I think iPhone performance has hit a point where one doesn't really feel the need to upgrade right away

I have a cheap 2014 Motorola Moto G and I have the same "problem". Yes, there are hundreds of modern phones out there which are several times faster and have way better hardware but the Moto G is fast enough for me.

I usually just browse the web, type a few messages in Whatsapp, take a few pictures, ... and the phone does all of this well enough so that I just don't have any reason to invest 500+ Euro in a new phone.

Another bonus is that if I accidentally drop my phone I can just buy a new one (or two) and it will still be cheaper than an iPhone or other similar phones.