Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

techcrunch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

401–410 of 471 posts

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#401

Post by jfoster »

wang_li wrote: post #386
vgoh1 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One accident might set back consumer driving for 50 years, but not commercial. The safety record simply needs to be much better than human drivers, which shouldn't be too hard, because one driver is already taken out of the equation. And there are billions upon billions to be saved, in our corporatocracy of the USA, it WILL happen. Bad roads shouldn't be too much of a problem, they can just use humans on the bad road…

Why do you think a truck driver is more expensive than an autonomous driving system? Have you priced enterprise software lately? It's not like you'll pay a flat-rate one-time fee and have your robotic driver available to you. You'll end up paying based on your vehicle capacity, on the annual mileage, on the annual driving time, possibly even on the market cap of the purchasing company. Then you'll pay annual costs fo…

Once the technology is built, it would make sense for the tech company to price their solution somewhere between $0 and whatever the status quo costs. Then they will want to sell as much of the tech as possible, so the pricing will be such that it is prioritized by the trucking companies.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#402

Post by beat »

When I worked at the Federal Reserve, our vault was managed by autonomous, self-driving vehicles (more robots than trucks - basically smart forklifts). They drove standardized boxes of money around from counting rooms where humans touched the money, to storage where humans were not allowed to go. Warehouse management software knew exactly how much money was in each box. Laser scanning was used for guidance and security.

This was over a decade ago. I'm sure things are much better now.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#403

Post by 0xffff2 »

vincefutr23 wrote: post #353

Driverless container carriers, traveling at medium speeds across the country, in groups, with only last mile labor required...sounds like, Trains?

Sure, except that the Interstate + National Highway System alone have more total millage than the US railroad system.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#404

Post by losteric »

usrusr wrote: post #223
losteric wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well even Germany isn't going to start with self-driving trucks driving everywhere. Every country has standardization problems... in Germany there are ancient towns with arches that trucks can't go under (and not all of them are marked). In the US we have inconsistent/missing signs, dense urban areas built for small cars, and all kinds of crazy human driving. My guess is actually opposite of yours though. I think sho…

> ancient towns with arches that trucks can't go under (and not all of them are marked). And that are routinely blocked by trucks with human drivers who keep forgetting their required height clearance. If there was a way to make shipping companies fully responsible for all the delays caused but stuck trucks, laser-scanner assistance systems that stop the truck before it is stopped by the arch would already be a popul…

Trucking as an industry is still firmly entrenched in the 20th century. Those shipping companies do have to pay for delays, but the industry's mindset is that delays are an immutable cost of doing business... get insurance against delays, travel around areas that might pose risks (even if it takes longer), train humans to predict/handle exceptional cases, pad out shipping schedules, etc. There's plenty of room for disruption.

Truck manufacturers are onboard because they get to sell replacements for every truck on the road... it's the shipping companies that are going to be the hard sell. The market is ripe for disruption but both shipping customers and shippers will be hesitant when faced with new fangled laser-thingamajiggers.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#405

Post by ericd »

BufordTJustice wrote: post #190
ericd wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, damage to roads goes up superlinearly with weight.

I think it's to the fourth power with axle weight.

That sounds familiar, but I couldn't remember with enough confidence to say. But yeah, trucks are really disproportionately bad for the roads.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#406

Post by tyingq »

the_economist wrote: post #336
tyingq wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much did UPS/Fedex shipping prices go down when fuel prices dropped? (hint, they went up).

Ocean and air freight real prices are the cheapest they have ever been.

That doesn't necessarily trickle down to consumers though. As mentioned, it certainly doesn't in the case of UPS/Fedex. The high level question is what happens with the cost savings driverless trucking brings? Does it turn into profit or reduced pricing to consumers?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#407

Post by randomgyatwork »

dmalvarado wrote: post #267

Just going to say this before reading the article because it's been on my mind since college. The end state of automation is unemployment and massive income inequality, with wealth being concentrated amongst the owners of capital. Now I'll go read the article.

Isn't that how its aways been, less the mass unemployment at least?

Maybe the inefficiencies make it less obvious?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#408

Post by visakanv »

gambiting wrote: post #390
visakanv wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I said this elsewhere but I will say it here too - our best of the best software can't tell a zebra and a sofa in a zebra print apart. Really? I find this surprising. Do you have any links or sources? I'd like to learn more.

There was a few articles about this exact issue on HN previously, a cursory search returns at least one of them: http://rocknrollnerd.github.io/ml/2015/05/27/leopard-sofa.ht...

Fascinating, thanks for sharing!

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#410

Post by usrusr »

jdoliner wrote: post #95
mmahemoff wrote: post #79

"Where drivers are restricted by law from driving more than 11 hours per day without taking an 8-hour break, a driverless truck can drive nearly 24 hours per day. That means the technology would effectively double the output of the U.S. transportation network at 25 percent of the cost." This suggests each truck has one driver - the truck stops when the driver stops. Aren't there systems that let drivers pool/share tr…

I'm pretty sure the limiting factor for trucking throughput is drivers not trucks. That's why labor accounts for 75% of the cost of shipping.

I think thorstadt was talking about latency: just like express messengers switched horses in the pre-telegraph age, trucks could be handed from driver to driver to keep them running without mandated breaks.

With half-workday legs, a system like that could even allow many relay drivers to get home every day despite driving long-haul loads.

My gut feeling is that this could work in theory, but would never evolve in the framework of a free market economy (whereas a planned economy would tend do everything by train).

Post reply on HN