The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs • Hacker News Board

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#311

Post by wccrawford » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:20 PM UTC

illumin8 wrote: post #289

verytrivial wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And then when you get to your destination, manoeuvring a 50' trailer is no easy task, even for a trained driver like my dad. I wonder if there will be a more specialised role for human drivers here akin to pilots in ports. Companies at the scale able to invest in the tech might have the trucks arrive at a queue near regional hubs and have wet-ware do the 10 minutes of fiddly driving after clearing off the Smart car…

The article says so. The plan is to have human drivers in each city drive the "last mile" from the interstate freeway exit to the destination. The current autonomous technology is only effective on freeways, so having human drivers drop the truck off at the interstate, and pick it up again solves the temporary problem of not having 100% effective automation of city driving/trailer parking.

If I were younger and not married, I could totally see taking a job as a trucker and guiding it on and off the highway, and doing coding or whatever in the meantime. It'd be a chance to go different places and have some adventure, while continuing to do another job that I love.

It's not unlike many college kids taking a job as a security guard and "watching monitors" while doing their homework, etc. (Another thing that I considered, but never actually did.)

Of course, there's a lot more training for truck driving, but I don't see that as a major barrier, given the benefits of extra pay and travel.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#312

Post by TheLogothete » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:21 PM UTC

zanny wrote: post #293

FussyZeus wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it won't, and it will come with a few of it's own (getting American's past the bootstrap narrative is probably the biggest single one) but it is a step in the right direction. That being said if you can think of another example where we put 3.5 million people out of work nearly overnight along with an entire support system built on their salaries and needs, I'd love to hear it. The only similar thing I could think…

UBI has nothing to contend with the boostrap narrative. You just shift the target. Rather than pulling yourself up by your bootstraps to not starve or die of exposure, you pull yourself up by your bootstraps to do anything at all beyond basic survival with a roof and bread. You want a car? Go work for it. You want TV? Go work for it. Etc. UBI is only meant to reduce the demand for total income enough that people can…

No, people will just slack because they can buy bread. We already saw this in the soviet block.

The human brain works on incentives. Remove the incentive the human is in free fall.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#313

Post by gambiting » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:21 PM UTC

CodeCube wrote: post #296

gambiting wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but there are more problems to consider here. With some types of cargo, applying maximum brakes can actually damage it(think livestock for example). You also don't want the truck to be going into panic mode and applying maximum brakes for a plastic bag or a small animal. I'm afraid that our current technology can at best tell that there is something there, but it won't be able to tell what - humans at the moment…

have you not been following the developments of self driving cars? Like the story of how google cars had problems gauging the intent of bike riders that were themselves stopped to let the car pass ... it looked like they were about to take off, so the car was too conservative and didn't move until the bike changed what they were doing. And then, once that condition was experienced and identified, it was fixed for all…

My point is that all of these are "simple" problems. Oh the truck will identify a plastic bag. Oh the truck will have a cargo manifest and drive accordingly.

But these are all new technologies. Our visual recognition libraries are nowhere near ideal. I said this elsewhere but I will say it here too - our best of the best software can't tell a zebra and a sofa in a zebra print apart. I'm pretty sure that all that LIDAR is seeing is a spherical object on the road, it has no idea what it is.

The same with the cargo manifest - it sounds simple, but no one has a system like this. It would need to be made and implemented, and it takes time and effort - I'm not saying that it's impossible, far from it, but it's one more obstacle to overcome to make this possible.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#314

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:22 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Post by JshWright » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:23 PM UTC

ilamont wrote: post #218

The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. This is a way of life where I live (Boston area). The article about the Russian driverless van…

The article is talking about automation once the truck is on the highway.

"We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over."

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#316

Post by intended » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:24 PM UTC

karmacondon wrote: post #290

gambiting wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but if a driver falls asleep it's clearly their fault, if they survive the accident they will be charged with manslaughter. If a driverless truck rear ends a car because of a glitch or a mechanical fault where it didn't see the car in front for some reason, then I can only imagine the corporation recalling all of them at huge cost, and possibly paying millions of dollars in damages. I think the point is that when…

The company making the vehicles will be responsible for any damages, and paying a massive insurance premium I'm sure. There will be legal consequences for gross negligence and anyone damaged will be made whole. I don't see how that's any different than the system we have now. And the emotional appeals cut both ways. How long before the parents of a child killed by a drunk or sleeping truck driver say "Why was he driv…

That's partly an effect of being on HN.

In non tech circles - the vast majority of the world - people are pretty famous for measuring risks by perception and not statistics.

The idea of a robotic truck taking away jobs while also being a risk to life? America would take up mass transit before it buys into that system.

Man I can see the headlines and political/ emotional arguments now. Godless SV tech priests rob Americans of the last few jobs they have. 1% and automation, no job left behind.!

It's useful to remember that People refused seat belts until the argument was irrefutable. Hell doctors didn't wash hands regularly until it was drilled into their heads that they were infecting patients.

And when it come to automated personal care - I bet that People will utterly, vociferously, oppose the loss of their agency in controlling their means of movement.

People have romanticized the man and the horse, the man and the bike, the car - but it's because it's a matter of controlling that power.

Selling that to the American public and the world at large is a multi generational effort.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#317

Post by CaptSpify » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:25 PM UTC

emp_zealoth wrote: post #250

mattlutze wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public and political perception need to consider autonomous commercial trucking to be safe, rather than safer. "Safer than human drivers" all too easily becomes "we can't control when these robot trucks my crash into a mother driving her kids to school," when you put it into the political regulation arena.

So it's all fine when a lorry rear ends and pancakes a car because the driver fell asleep?

Nobody is saying this is logical. The point is that people will use this as a hyped-up political foothold to point out why automated drivers are "unsafe" as well as "taking our jobs".

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Post by levemi » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:27 PM UTC

madeofpalk wrote: post #302

massysett wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc." It won't; at least, it won't need to handle narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. The autonomous truck need not drive the whole route that a human driver does now. Drive down the Ohio Turnpike and you will see numerous p…

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

> Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!).

You're exhibiting the AI effect [0]. Could you program the software that makes vehicles drive around "boring" roads? Of course it's advanced.

> I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I previously expected. Like 20 years sooner.

Self driving vehicles are already a thing. They're driving around the bay are all the time [1]. They'll be "happening" in the delivery market much sooner than 20 years, like in the next 5. The state of California has already started the regulatory process [2].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect#AI_is_whatever_hasn....

[1] https://www.google.com/search?q=self+driving+vehicle+spotted

[2] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:30 PM UTC

madeofpalk wrote: post #302

massysett wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc." It won't; at least, it won't need to handle narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. The autonomous truck need not drive the whole route that a human driver does now. Drive down the Ohio Turnpike and you will see numerous p…

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

I think that will be the near future; we've already done the exact same thing with airline pilots, who spend most of a flight on autopilot (hence the expression). This allows them to do long shifts with much lower mental pressure.

I'm even imagining 24 hour drivers, who let the truck drive autonomously at night on quiet roads at low speeds while they sleep and live in the truck. A bit like lonely spaceship pilots from science fiction.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#320

Post by fab13n » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 2:32 PM UTC

hluska wrote: post #266

anoonmoose wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any evidence that a technology with billions of dollars in potential would not be used if it was only 99.99% ready? I feel like lots of dangerous stuff has been deployed when it was nowhere near 99% in the past, and I'm not sure why this technology would be any different. People talk about it like it's a lot different, but how safe are regular cars? Nuclear power? Coal power? Honestly I don't even know what…

Consider the politics of wiping out the biggest employer in 29/50 states. Can you imagine the backlash that even one death would cause?

I rather see it in the following terms: some profits are up for grab, who's best positioned to take them?

I don't live in the US so I might have an inaccurate perception of everyone's leverage. However, truckers seem rather disorganised, compared to superstore chains. If big stores eat up 30% of the savings, and offer the remaining 70% to their customers as lower prices (minus a couple % spent in lobbying of course), I would guess they'd had their way. Ditto for Amazon, Alibaba etc.

Look at Chinese importations: politicians sometimes make big protectionist talks to their constituents, but take no measure effective enough to annoy lobbies. And I think importations represent more jobs than transport.