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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#221

Post by kitd »

creshal wrote: post #214
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

> Things involving humans (vehicles cutting you off, pedestrians, etc.) are part of the general class of problems that I'm assuming all automated vehicles are working on and are much harder. The more mass you have, the longer your braking distance and the more sluggish the reactions. While the problem is the same, and the mechanical differences easily modelled, light vehicles get away with lower accuracy and higher l…

Are the lower masses not offset by higher speeds though?

The article mentions 45mph as the most efficient speed for a truck. I can imagine the regulators demanding a pretty low speed for automated trucks.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#222

Post by Infinitesimus »

vlasev wrote: post #160
ChartsNGraffs wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were 55+ with your only qualification being that you could drive a truck and that niche was automated away, this would absolutely be devastating to you.

Just a thought: What if they only replace retiring/stopping/dying drivers with a driver-less alternative and close off the profession for others?

That would probably be better. In reality, however, a business will go for the cheaper (or required-by-law) option and will more heavily towards humans or automation

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#223

Post by usrusr »

losteric wrote: post #66
ascotan wrote: post #52

I'm skeptical. European roads are not American roads. According to google there are over 4 million miles of road in the US and there is very little standardization. I would venture to say that road quality is much worse in the US. I'm skeptical that the sensors in self-driving vehicles are capable of making long hauls on US roads. > We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverless trucks could be a hazard f…

Well even Germany isn't going to start with self-driving trucks driving everywhere. Every country has standardization problems... in Germany there are ancient towns with arches that trucks can't go under (and not all of them are marked). In the US we have inconsistent/missing signs, dense urban areas built for small cars, and all kinds of crazy human driving. My guess is actually opposite of yours though. I think sho…

> ancient towns with arches that trucks can't go under (and not all of them are marked).

And that are routinely blocked by trucks with human drivers who keep forgetting their required height clearance. If there was a way to make shipping companies fully responsible for all the delays caused but stuck trucks, laser-scanner assistance systems that stop the truck before it is stopped by the arch would already be a popular retrofit.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#224

Post by estefan »

ilamont wrote: post #218

The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. This is a way of life where I live (Boston area). The article about the Russian driverless van…

> Industry players are aware that just one serious accident on the roads involving a driverless car could set back their development by decades.

It'd be awfully "convenient" for the truckers & taxi drivers if this were to happen... I predict a dirty tricks campaign with one or two engineered "accidents" to safeguard their industries.

Vehicles, autonomous and current ones, will need incredibly reliable security to prevent remote hacking.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#225

Post by bane »

Many of the comments here are overestimating what's required for this to have an impact. Driverless trucks only need to cover some large percentage of the driving currently performed by humans to be major economic changers.

For example, let's say they can only run during daylight hours, in conditions other than rain and snow, only on long-haul routes, and humans will do the "last-mile" piloting on local roads.

Now let's suppose that for routes that fit those parameters driverless trucks end up taking over 40% of those kinds of routes. That's huge. It would absolutely transform the economies of all the states that are looking for truck drivers here. http://media2.policymic.com/bf05a1c9e6b8a55095f8b4726e30b52f...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#226

Post by Svip »

bane wrote: post #225

Many of the comments here are overestimating what's required for this to have an impact. Driverless trucks only need to cover some large percentage of the driving currently performed by humans to be major economic changers. For example, let's say they can only run during daylight hours, in conditions other than rain and snow, only on long-haul routes, and humans will do the "last-mile" piloting on local roads. Now le…

Indeed. I find the binary view of self-driving/driverless/robot lorries somewhat narrow.

Furthermore, a lot of these sort of technologies have already made it into lorries and cars, just commonly called 'driver aids'. Such as radar controlled cruise control, lane control, etc.

Most of lorry hauling takes place on motorways, where the process can be easily automated. Only when trips from the origin to the motorway and the motorway to the destination could remain in control of the driver.

And moreover, this sort of technology could be fitted to lorries very soon. Fully automated self-driving lorries are still decades off. Partly of all the minor quirks and issues, but mostly because once more than 50% of the actual lorry driving is automated, there will be less urgency for it.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#227

Post by Pamar »

One question (I didn't read the article, but it just popped in my mind while thinking of driverless trucks).

Is anyone working on driverless trains? If not, why not? I understand that the impact would be less huge, but at the same time the problem domain is arguably more tractable. In my hometown we have a fully automated underground train line which has been working flawlessly (i.e. no accidents) for almost 10 years now, but according to Wikipedia it looks like ATO (Automatic Train Operation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_train_operation) is currently deployed only for urban transport, while proper railways, even the Japanese ones, seems to use only ATC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_train_control) which from what I understand provides support to a human driver but still needs one to operate.

(edit: typos)

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#228

Post by tyingq »

doyoulikeworms wrote: post #188
tyingq wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much did UPS/Fedex shipping prices go down when fuel prices dropped? (hint, they went up).

what about their other costs?

UPS and Fedex raise their rates every year in January with a figure that far exceeds inflation or other indexed costs.

https://www.lojistic.com/pdf/UPS-Fedex-General-Price-Increas...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#229

Post by unprepare »

pm24601 wrote: post #192
djrogers wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not quietly, no, but it's no less inevitable. History is full of jobs that have been automated away, and few of those historical examples offered a more obvious and large payoff.

I do notice you are avoiding my central point: With railroads, there is not an economic incentive for automation. One commentator suggested that driverless trucks would have to be separated from human drivers. Railroads have this thing called "tracks" Another suggested the wonderful advantage of a driverless truck not getting into accidents. Railroads have an excellent safety record. Driverless trucks as a way to red…

>What is the economic model to use driverless trucks?

Road goes to more places than train tracks.

You dont really need more than that...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#230

Post by unprepare »

ghaff wrote: post #3

>The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over. We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverless trucks could be a hazard for drivers. So, right around the corner except for billions in infras…

How much do you think it costs to convert a truck to an automated truck?

How much do you think the salary of a truck driver is?

How many years does it take for the automated solution to be more cost effective?

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