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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#111

Post by mixermf »

themartorana wrote: post #97
mixermf wrote: post #87

Automation is driving humans out of jobs. Driverless trucks will layoff 1%+ of the US population, because driverless trucks are far more economical. The general trend is profits go up and employment goes down. What to do with such an economy? Basic income. Tax the profits and give everyone sufficient income to pay for the basic necessities. That's one of the conclusions of the 2011 book Race Against The Machine, by t…

I'm a big fan of Alan Watts' "Money, Guilt, and the Machine" [0] as are many people here. It's most poignant point IMHO is that we're screwed until we can separate money and morality. As we move towards more political extremes here in the US, that's going to be near impossible. So we can either separate money from morality, or suffer greatly as jobs - especially blue collar jobs - are automated away. Alas I fear ther…

I just listened to "Money, Guilt, and the Machine." I don't understand what you mean "separating money and morality." Can you explain?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#112

Post by yummyfajitas »

fernly wrote: post #108

Where will an autonomous truck (AT) refuel? On US highways, fuel stations are not "full service", the driver is expected to operate the fuel filling and pay. So will some stations provide attendants to fuel ATs? If there is resentment against the ATs -- and that is just about a certainty -- there will be cases of resentful attendants shorting the fuel delivery, or even sabotaging trucks (water/sugar in the tank). So,…

Luddite terrorists is already a problem we are facing.

http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/25/french-anti-uber-protest-tu...

http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/01/the-fight-against-uber-is-g...

I don't think protecting trucks from terrorists is a major issue - providing security is just a minor added cost, as is armoring the trucks.

The real issue is that for the most part governments seem to be siding with the terrorists rather than shutting them down.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#113

Post by ChartsNGraffs »

duck wrote: post #86
thedogeye wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immigration is another way to solve this.

Very true, but I guess my argument is that the author is wrong in terms of this being a devastating thing to our current workforce.

If you were 55+ with your only qualification being that you could drive a truck and that niche was automated away, this would absolutely be devastating to you.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#114

Post by tyingq »

dv_dt wrote: post #75
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

I wonder what the accident rate of professional truck drivers is compared to other passenger class drivers. Certainly the outcome of an accident is potentially a much higher level of mayhem.

Not exactly what you're asking for, but related. In accidents where both a large commercial truck, and a car were involved:

"the car was the encroaching vehicle in 89% of headon crashes, 88% of the opposite-direction sideswipes, 80% of the rear-end crashes, and 72% of the same-direction sideswipes."

http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#115

Post by justratsinacoat »

kilroy123 wrote: post #40

My friend is some kind of logistics manager for a trucking company. He literally manages dozens of trucks and truck drivers daily. He says, it's so ridiculous, how far away we are from automatting truck driving. There is a lot of manual work for loading and off-loading rigs. Plus there is driving in every single possible driving condition possible, around the world. He said, he could see an auto-pilot system being in…

My friend was a truck driver for a while, and a friend-of-a-friend is some kind of logistics manager. They both had the same objections to self-driving trucks -- the regulatory necessity for a human driver to initially inspect and periodically check the load, and the last-mile driver thing (which they expressed in different terms).

The 'some kind of logistics manager' thinks there'll be autonomous trucks pretty shortly, but the implementation will look like that Simpsons episode for years to come -- the way things work right now, a human in the cab is required.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#117

Post by elsewhen »

jmspring wrote: post #91
ori_b wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Where is the money going to come from for produce suppliers, some on thin profits, to automate where hiring a bunch of seasonal laborers is less overhead, maintenance, etc.

if an automated solution ends up being cheaper than manual laborers, then some lending institution will be happy to lend the money for the transition. any players that avoid the transition will likely get obviated by the competitors that capture and pass on the cost savings.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#118

Post by dragonwriter »

jmspring wrote: post #91
ori_b wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Where is the money going to come from for produce suppliers, some on thin profits, to automate where hiring a bunch of seasonal laborers is less overhead, maintenance, etc.

It's going to come from automation costs dropping and seasonal (and other) labor costs rising in real terms, so that the cost effective approach is automation. Same as everywhere else.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#119

Post by elsewhen »

known wrote: post #116

Why are we not seeing driver-less trains?

there are driverless trains at lots of airports, but i think the reason they dont appear elsewhere is that the cost savings wouldnt be as great. a single train conductor is managing a massive vehicle - sometimes two orders of magnitude more than a truck. the labor component with trains is significantly lower than in trucking. i think the same is true for ships. taxis are at the other end of the spectrum, where labor is a very large part of the cost structure.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#120

Post by analog31 »

fernly wrote: post #108

Where will an autonomous truck (AT) refuel? On US highways, fuel stations are not "full service", the driver is expected to operate the fuel filling and pay. So will some stations provide attendants to fuel ATs? If there is resentment against the ATs -- and that is just about a certainty -- there will be cases of resentful attendants shorting the fuel delivery, or even sabotaging trucks (water/sugar in the tank). So,…

It doesn't require any kind of criminal activity to disrupt the trucking industry. Just lay off the truckers, and the drop in consumer demand will take care of the industry.
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