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What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

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Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#11

Post by daveguy »

mwhite wrote: post #7
legohead wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't follow baseball. Are you saying that a large part of baseball is luck, and you are bound to lose regardless of how skilled your team is?

Enough of it's luck that it's unlikely that a team would go undefeated for half of a season, but it's also the fact that it's hard to get a team with only the best players; most teams have a mixture of player ability. If you put the best major league team in the minor leagues they'd probably have a 90%+ winning percentage. (Highest MLB season winning percentage is 76%, longest winning streak is 26 games out of 162, i…

Two additional points. 1) The mixture of player ability is mostly due to cost penalties for paying players a higher salary (although Yankees just pay it). Not as distributed as (american) football, but still distributed. 2) Note the longest winning streak is 26 games out of 162... out of 162. Longest basketball streak is 33 games (not enough for an undefeated 82 game season). The ability to have a 162 game streak that starts on game one and lasts through the baseball season is essentially impossible. It is possible to have an undefeated season in american football where the season is 16 games (but it is rare -- hasn't happened since pre-NFL 1937, 1948). Baseball has an order of magnitude more games per season.

EDIT: I knew that wasn't right (that's what I get for haphazardly scanning Wikipedia for facts). A couple others since recently 2007 Patriots and 1972 Dolphins also had undefeated seasons in NFL. Still rare, and still a fraction of the number of games. Point is: luck is only part of it, no matter the sport staying undefeated is difficult -- especially for a season when season means 162 games! Thanks for pointing out the mistake everyone. Sorry for the confusion!

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#12

Post by mmanfrin »

legohead wrote: post #5
cortesoft wrote: post #2

The idea that a baseball team could ever go undefeated for even half a season is ridiculous. No amount of data analysis can make you do that. That would be like saying that a perfect poker player could win every hand. Even if your opponent was playing with their cards face up, sometimes he is gonna hit his inside straight on the river.

I don't follow baseball. Are you saying that a large part of baseball is luck, and you are bound to lose regardless of how skilled your team is?

No, but everyone has bad days, and the players are all human. A small error can lead to points which can change the outcome of the game.

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#13

Post by mmanfrin »

This reminds me of Football Manager (video game series). It's a turn based moneyball-sort-of game for soccer/football. Players have stats, potentials (which need to be scouted), training, etc. But there are other relevant details like how a player is likely to get along with other players that affect game outcomes.

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#14

Post by tomlor »

daveguy wrote: post #11
mwhite wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enough of it's luck that it's unlikely that a team would go undefeated for half of a season, but it's also the fact that it's hard to get a team with only the best players; most teams have a mixture of player ability. If you put the best major league team in the minor leagues they'd probably have a 90%+ winning percentage. (Highest MLB season winning percentage is 76%, longest winning streak is 26 games out of 162, i…

Two additional points. 1) The mixture of player ability is mostly due to cost penalties for paying players a higher salary (although Yankees just pay it). Not as distributed as (american) football, but still distributed. 2) Note the longest winning streak is 26 games out of 162... out of 162 . Longest basketball streak is 33 games (not enough for an undefeated 82 game season). The ability to have a 162 game streak th…

2007 Patriots went 16-0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_New_England_Patriots_seas...

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#15

Post by School-Cotton »

legohead wrote: post #5
cortesoft wrote: post #2

The idea that a baseball team could ever go undefeated for even half a season is ridiculous. No amount of data analysis can make you do that. That would be like saying that a perfect poker player could win every hand. Even if your opponent was playing with their cards face up, sometimes he is gonna hit his inside straight on the river.

I don't follow baseball. Are you saying that a large part of baseball is luck, and you are bound to lose regardless of how skilled your team is?

Practically everything in the world more complex than basic physics is non-deterministic, especially who wins games of skill. Things occur or don't occur with probabilities.

Even if you have a 95% chance of winning each game (unrealistic IMO), the probability of winning 81 games in a row is under 2%.

This is less apparent in other sports than in baseball, not because the outcomes of those games are more deterministic, but because fewer games are played per season.

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#16

Post by [deleted] »

School-Cotton wrote: post #15
legohead wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't follow baseball. Are you saying that a large part of baseball is luck, and you are bound to lose regardless of how skilled your team is?

Practically everything in the world more complex than basic physics is non-deterministic, especially who wins games of skill. Things occur or don't occur with probabilities. Even if you have a 95% chance of winning each game (unrealistic IMO), the probability of winning 81 games in a row is under 2%. This is less apparent in other sports than in baseball, not because the outcomes of those games are more deterministic…

[deleted]

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#17

Post by wolfgke »

mmanfrin wrote: post #13

This reminds me of Football Manager (video game series). It's a turn based moneyball-sort-of game for soccer/football. Players have stats, potentials (which need to be scouted), training, etc. But there are other relevant details like how a player is likely to get along with other players that affect game outcomes.

> But there are other relevant details like how a player is likely to get along with other players that affect game outcomes.

Time for creating mathematical models for predictors of how people are getting along... :-)

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#18

Post by datawrangler »

tomlor wrote: post #14
daveguy wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two additional points. 1) The mixture of player ability is mostly due to cost penalties for paying players a higher salary (although Yankees just pay it). Not as distributed as (american) football, but still distributed. 2) Note the longest winning streak is 26 games out of 162... out of 162 . Longest basketball streak is 33 games (not enough for an undefeated 82 game season). The ability to have a 162 game streak th…

2007 Patriots went 16-0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_New_England_Patriots_seas...

The 1972 Dolphins went 14-0 and also won the Super Bowl [1].

Re: What Happens When Baseball-Stats Nerds Run a Pro Team

#19

Post by datawrangler »

tomlor wrote: post #14
daveguy wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two additional points. 1) The mixture of player ability is mostly due to cost penalties for paying players a higher salary (although Yankees just pay it). Not as distributed as (american) football, but still distributed. 2) Note the longest winning streak is 26 games out of 162... out of 162 . Longest basketball streak is 33 games (not enough for an undefeated 82 game season). The ability to have a 162 game streak th…

2007 Patriots went 16-0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_New_England_Patriots_seas...

Can't seem to edit on iPhone client, but here's the link I meant to post. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Miami_Dolphins_season
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