Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, I am the engineer mentioned in the article, and I agree the explanation doesn't really work. The pieces of the explanation that ended up in the article itself don't add up to a coherent explanation. The fault for that is mostly mine. In hindsight, my original explanation was too long and too elaborate to be helpful. It's a good reminder that it is easy to go to far with an analogy and end up complicating the th…
There is a stochastic approach that can be adapted to address this problem, I think I first saw it at IMVU in 2009 but conveniently Wikipedia has a good reference now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cache_stampede#Probabilistic_e... The advantage is less coordination is necessary and you should be able to get down to a single concurrent rerender per page.
I suppose, in this case you could use the time since invalidation as your input. The downside is that changes in the source aren't immediately reflected in the rendered output, especially for infrequently updated pages.