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Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

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Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#11
Long-term, I am not very bullish on Google/Alphabet. More than 90% of their profits come online advertising, something that can be easily blocked for life with a simple browser extension/plugin. Some worrying figures[1]:

* US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million active users in 12 months up to June 2015.

* Ad blocking grew by 41% globally in the last 12 months.

* US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million active users in 12 months up to June 2015.

[1] https://blog.pagefair.com/2015/ad-blocking-report/

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#13
post #8

"Paid clicks for Google were up 29 percent year-over-year for the first quarter" I'm amazed this trend continues. Page views almost certainly were NOT up 29% yoy. Meaning that clicks are growing faster than page views, in a big way, every single quarter, for years. That's what sets the investor expectations, but I don't see a way this trend continues forever. There's only so much room for additional ads, ad optimizat…

I imagine part of it is explained by the fact that when I did a search on a mobile device, nearly 90% of the front fold was ad.

http://i.imgur.com/S5nClc4.png

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#15
post #8

"Paid clicks for Google were up 29 percent year-over-year for the first quarter" I'm amazed this trend continues. Page views almost certainly were NOT up 29% yoy. Meaning that clicks are growing faster than page views, in a big way, every single quarter, for years. That's what sets the investor expectations, but I don't see a way this trend continues forever. There's only so much room for additional ads, ad optimizat…

The overwhelming majority of impressions do not result in clicks, so there is plenty of room for clicks per page view to increase.

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#16
post #11

Long-term, I am not very bullish on Google/Alphabet. More than 90% of their profits come online advertising, something that can be easily blocked for life with a simple browser extension/plugin. Some worrying figures[1]: * US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million active users in 12 months up to June 2015. * Ad blocking grew by 41% globally in the last 12 months. * US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million…

> More than 90% of their profits come online advertising

actually, it looks like this may be the first quarter where their non-advertising revenue was over 10% of their total revenue. $2,071 out of $20,091 (in millions). Growing 24% YoY isn't too shabby, either.

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#17
post #8

"Paid clicks for Google were up 29 percent year-over-year for the first quarter" I'm amazed this trend continues. Page views almost certainly were NOT up 29% yoy. Meaning that clicks are growing faster than page views, in a big way, every single quarter, for years. That's what sets the investor expectations, but I don't see a way this trend continues forever. There's only so much room for additional ads, ad optimizat…

[deleted]

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#18
post #11

Long-term, I am not very bullish on Google/Alphabet. More than 90% of their profits come online advertising, something that can be easily blocked for life with a simple browser extension/plugin. Some worrying figures[1]: * US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million active users in 12 months up to June 2015. * Ad blocking grew by 41% globally in the last 12 months. * US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million…

And...if YTB starts anti-ad-block because they are desperate...what do you think?

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#19
Alphabet isn't the only big corp down after hours today.

As of now:

Microsoft - down 5%. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/msft

Visa - down 4% http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/v

Starbux - down 4% http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sbux

In each case, the cause is different. But one thing is common, trailing PE ratios of all four are high compared to historical norms. High PE ratios are maintained with high growth in revenue, earnings and margins. Back off even a bit and the invisible hand smacks you in the face.

Re: Alphabet slides 5% after missing earnings expectations on revenue of $20.3B

#20
post #11

Long-term, I am not very bullish on Google/Alphabet. More than 90% of their profits come online advertising, something that can be easily blocked for life with a simple browser extension/plugin. Some worrying figures[1]: * US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million active users in 12 months up to June 2015. * Ad blocking grew by 41% globally in the last 12 months. * US ad blocking grew by 48% to reach 45 million…

But the majority of that online advertising income comes from ads on their own search results pages, not from adsense ads.
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