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Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

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Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#221
post #176

I won't go on about the work quality at Amazon, there are plenty of other places to read about that. It _is_ important to note that the average retention at Amazon (even for excellent people) is ~50% for 1 year, and ~20% or lower for the 2nd year. Therefore, these comparisons should really take that into account. Amazon MAY look higher than Microsoft (for example) but because you only see 20% of your total vest the f…

Do you have any source to back up those numbers (50% and 20%)? They're very unexpected to say the least...

To be clear (I realize it may have seemed worse than it was):

Day 1: 1000 employees Day 365: 500 employees Day 730: 200 employees.

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#222
post #208

I won't go on about the work quality at Amazon, there are plenty of other places to read about that. It _is_ important to note that the average retention at Amazon (even for excellent people) is ~50% for 1 year, and ~20% or lower for the 2nd year. Therefore, these comparisons should really take that into account. Amazon MAY look higher than Microsoft (for example) but because you only see 20% of your total vest the f…

Where are these 10s of thousands of former Amazonians working now?

Microsoft, Google (Seattle), Century Link, Group On, Moz, Redfin, Porch, Chef, White Pages... to name a few.

It's almost impossible to throw a dart at this list and not hit at least 5-10 - http://www.geekwire.com/geekwire-200/

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

quick calculation comes to about a 45% tax rate for single in CA and 42.4% for married. So 50% is a small exaggeration, but it's definitely closer to reality than 30-35% underestimate.

Note that these numbers are likely the marginal tax rate, the tax rate that the very last dollar was taxed at. However, all of the income is not taxed at that rate. That is why the commenter above mentioned effective tax rate, which is the calculation of (total tax paid / total income).

Why would you guess when someone told you they calculated? For marroed filing jointly earning $450k, the marginal rate is 35% federal plus 2.35% Medicare tax plus 9.3% CA tax.

5% higher for $500k

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It _is_ important to note that the average retention at Amazon (even for excellent people) is ~50% for 1 year, and ~20% or lower for the 2nd year. Your comment on "retention" is factually incorrect. I'll presume your comments are in relation to "tech roles" such as SDE SDM TPM etc. First the number of Amazon hires in "tech roles" increases by ~50% per year . i.e., in year 1 there are 1,000 SDEs hired, year 2 is 1,5…

> Your comment on "retention" is factually incorrect. I disagree. > First the number of Amazon hires in "tech roles" increases by ~50% per year. i.e., in year 1 there are 1,000 SDEs hired, year 2 is 1,500, year 3 is 2,250, year 4 is 3,375 and so on. This could not possibly be true. If it was, they would be hiring ~1.5M technical people a year (since they've been in business since 1997). Perhaps you meant since 2005,…

First "id est" is used to explain or clarify, it is not a list of literal examples.

I'll again state that I am referring to "tech role" workers commonly represented by an "SDE"; not vendors, contractors, hourly, warehouse associates, etc. I am also referring to this population across all of Amazon; Consumer ("Retail"), AWS, and "Digital" aka "Kindle". I make no specific claims to particular internal organizations which may or may not represent the average.

I don't think that anyone is going to repeat or cite a companies internal data. Maybe we can use public data and some simple deductions to arrive at the most plausible explanation.

Your linked "geekwire.com" article is actually an illustration of the SEC 10-K filings. Under that documents definition of "Employees" it specifically terms this to be "full-time and part-time employees." Contractors, vendors, and temp workers are _not_ included in those numbers: "Additionally, we utilize independent contractors and temporary personnel to supplement our workforce." Unfortunately, that does coalesce "tech roles" with distribution ("warehouse") facility workers etc.

Additionally by reading these 10-Ks you'll note a section on "Stock-based compensation." As many have noted RSUs are a significant portion of Amazon compensation. From 2008 annually this is $275M, $341M, $424M, $557M, $833M, $1,100M, $1,500M, & $2,100M through 2016 Q1. Regardless of employee count the cost of issuing RSUs increased by 25-40% per year, with an increase in rate during recent years.

As you, and others, have noted the Amazon compensation package weights the initial RSU vesting schedule to years 3 & 4 of employment. I believe the typical structure is that only 5% of grants vest after the first 12 months, and an additional 15% at 24 months.

Let us use the public data which shows a distinct increase in employee count and compensation costs starting around 2011. Suppose again the company might have had 5,000 employees in tech roles at that time. Using my posited net growth of ~50% we could expect ~25,000 employees after 4 years, i.e. in 2015. Which happens to align pretty well to your citation of 24,000 in WA as of mid 2015. Don't forget that Amazon is a global company, so while a majority of tech roles may be WA based, it is certainly not all. Feel free to decrease the rate to 40% net, it merely changes the target dates by ~1 year.

We can also compare the public data on employee count and stock based compensation. Using the hypothetical ~25,000 tech role employees for ~2015 and $2,100M of stock we arrive at an average of ~$84,000 vested RSUs per tech role employee. Of course RSUs arent a uniform distribution, but that seems to map to self reported salary data. Adjusting for the employee count at 2015 Q2 and the stock based comp cost at 2016 Q1 further improves the fit.

From your other comment you appear to posit that employee attrition is approximately exponential decay each year. I believe you have also stated that the average tenure at exit time is 1 year. In that case employees should have only vested ~5% of their total RSU grants at time of exit, forfeiting 95% on average. How do we reconcile that with the public data showing a ~40% annual increase in the cost of stock based compensation?

Further your exponential attrition should lead to asymptotic employee counts unless offset. I do not believe anyone is claiming a net decrease in Amazon tech role employees, most cite a rapid increase in active employees. What hiring rate do you posit to support both your claimed 50% attrition rates and the significant net increased employee counts?

PS: AMZN 10-K filings for your perusal http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=97664&p=irol-sec...

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. Public healthcare spending in the US is higher, per capita, than spending on the NHS. And how the buggery are you managing to spend £2300 a year on health insurance in the UK? That's crazy expensive. Ok, it's less than people in the US pay, but it's still mad for UK.

2300 isn't that expensive BUPA would cost you nearly double also please don't compare the public healthcare spending it has nothing to do with the actual prices you end up paying. The health care expenditure in the US is the biggest in the world but that's including all the prices that insurance companies pay for treatment and services. If the US stops charging 3000$ for an MRI scan it's expenditure will go down dras…

I last looked about 6 years ago, right enough, but then £120 a month was the maximum charge I could find, that was with zero excess and get paid money for any nights in an NHS hospital, etc etc. I'm not sure what I'd need to add on to get it up to £200 a month - a free chauffeur for any time spent sick? ;-)

I suppose prices could have increased a fair bit since then. Also, I note you're in London. I'm in Scotland, so we actually have a different NHS, and it does generally get rated higher than NHS England.

I can compare public healthcare spending as that's the money that comes out of your taxes. Americans are taxed more for their public healthcare than we are in the UK for the NHS. They also pay more for private healthcare than we do in the UK. So your claim that it's more expensive here is simply wrong.

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. There are many leadership principles which are contradictory either in part or in whole (e.g. Dive Deep vs. Bias for Action; Insist on the Highest Standards vs. Invent and Simplify). You can squint and see how these would be the same, but often they're just used as arrows in a quiver to knock someone down and/or put someone on a PIP (performance improvement plan). Example I witnessed during people review…

Leadership principles (LPs) are not contradictory so much as they are in tension with one another. That's not a bad thing, it's a good thing. Navigating the tension is what helps discover good outcomes. For example, if a customer calls up wanting a refund, then granting the refund supports Customer Obsession but contradicts Frugality. When deciding between options, there is always a tradeoff, and the LPs provide a le…

It is impossible to create a total ordering of preference when you have conflicting priorities (or "tension" between priorities). This reflects reality. Humans often get in weird situations where they prefer A to B, B to C, and C to A. The issue is not that the principles are incorrect, but that their application is confused for objectivity.

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your comment on "retention" is factually incorrect. I disagree. > First the number of Amazon hires in "tech roles" increases by ~50% per year. i.e., in year 1 there are 1,000 SDEs hired, year 2 is 1,500, year 3 is 2,250, year 4 is 3,375 and so on. This could not possibly be true. If it was, they would be hiring ~1.5M technical people a year (since they've been in business since 1997). Perhaps you meant since 2005,…

First "id est" is used to explain or clarify, it is not a list of literal examples. I'll again state that I am referring to "tech role" workers commonly represented by an "SDE"; not vendors, contractors, hourly, warehouse associates, etc. I am also referring to this population across all of Amazon; Consumer ("Retail"), AWS, and "Digital" aka "Kindle". I make no specific claims to particular internal organizations whi…

You did not say roles were increasing at 50% per year as an example - that was your stated fact.

I'm saying unless they had 10 employees in 2000 (wrong) or only started the 50% hiring last year (so we have no longitudinal data to go on), there is no number where that level of exponential growth of employees wouldn't result in either a) a company that was bigger than Walmart in employees in just a few years or b) MASSIVE firings. Maybe that's what you're saying? They hire that many people and remove them from the company that fast? I know the removal from the company is certainly correct.

As far as the increase in costs of RSUs, there is a perfectly alternative solutions to your proposal: their stock has increased by 10x in 10 years. So in that way, they're EXACTLY keeping track (https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=amzn+Interactive#{"range...), and not increasing people collecting RSUs at all. You'll note that you list amount of money required for the RSUs, not number of shares. (This is, by the way, another way that Amazon misleads their employees - your yearly cash bonus actually goes down when the value of the stock increases).

So by that logic, they have, in fact, not kept pace with the rise of their stock. New employees are receiving substantially less new grants than older ones (bordering on zero, which can't be true), or they're being removed before they vest.

Further, the 24k in Washington also include many thousands of non-tech roles (Amazon Fresh warehouse in Redmond, Customer Support in Bellingham, some portion of the more than 2500 sales people for AWS, etc etc), so your math does not add up for adding new 25k tech roles, even if we multiply by 40% as a reduction. Doing some approximations using LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/vsearch/p?keywords=amazon&f_CC=1586...) they do appear to have ~24k employees in Washington, but only ~8k in engineering (they appear to add another 4k engineers in India).

Again, these are all public numbers, so they are inaccurate, but they should be good enough to substantially disprove your point. So, without question, your statement about increasing hiring by 50% y/y has no facts to back it up.

As far as active hiring, that is absolutely correct. They are extremely active in hiring - but they have to be because people leave so fast that unless they do, they'd be out of people.

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And another bad thing is that I don't really find RSUs for most startups that attractive. I'd rather have RSUs from some public company like Amazon or Google than some non-public startup. At least I can easily sell Amazon stock.

Nitpick: Non-public companies don't give RSUs. They either give stock options or "restricted stock", which is actually a completely different thing from RSUs. Either way, the basic intent is to ensure that, for tax purposes, the grant has zero value, because if they gave you a non-zero-valued grant then you'd have to pay taxes on it and if you can't sell the stock to cover taxes that is going to suck. Once public, th…

Yes, you pointed out the main advantage - it's a bet against the stock price of the company. This lowers the volatility,and it doesn't lower expected earnings too much because if things go up you can just hire more people at lower RSU amounts.

The other advantage is you can incentivize people to stay to at least the RSU cliff, which improves your retention and institutional knowledge.

Re: Open Source Project – View 689 Salaries Posted on Hacker News, Share Yours

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leadership principles (LPs) are not contradictory so much as they are in tension with one another. That's not a bad thing, it's a good thing. Navigating the tension is what helps discover good outcomes. For example, if a customer calls up wanting a refund, then granting the refund supports Customer Obsession but contradicts Frugality. When deciding between options, there is always a tradeoff, and the LPs provide a le…

It is impossible to create a total ordering of preference when you have conflicting priorities (or "tension" between priorities). This reflects reality. Humans often get in weird situations where they prefer A to B, B to C, and C to A. The issue is not that the principles are incorrect, but that their application is confused for objectivity.

You get it.
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