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Scientific Regress

firstthings.com

41–50 of 56 posts

Re: Scientific Regress

#41
This is an obviously biaised text by an author with a fundamentalist religious agenda.

He cites all well-known and not at all surprising problems with peer review, which means that a sizeable proportion of published science is wrong -- wrong as in somewhat innaccurate and likely perfectible, and in now way as wrong as only religious ideas can be, i.e. completely false and unfounded. Asimov wrote a great essay about this Relativity of Wrong [1].

Indeed, that fact that science isn't regressive, and our knowledge is getting more accurate with each passing day, is self-evident. Suffice to compare what we have now with what we had 20 years ago, and its clear that we are not regressing.

Now, as to the specific examples that are falsely used to proove how wrong this wicked science can get:

1. "one hundred published psychology experiments".

Seriously, anyone in the field knows that these studies are rubbish, and all correlations are obtained after running so many statstical tests that they are clearly due to chance.

2. "half of all academic biomedical research will ultimately prove false".

Again, this is obvious. Many initially positive findings will be due to chance, especially when we are talking of small, exploration studies. Yes, many initially promising molecules did not live out to the hype, but others did, and spectacularly so. For instance, progress in oncology has been amazing lately. People who had life expectancies of mere weeks in early 2000s now routinely survive for years with their metastatic cancers.

3. "but are unlikely to mention a similar experiment conducted on reviewers of the prestigious British Medical Journal." [as opposed to Sokal's Social Text hoax].

Apples and oranges. Sokal's article is plain old gibberish, whereas the experiments in medical litterature were to assess the reviewers capacity to assess for methodology failures of otherwise plausible studies. Most of these methodology failures are weeded out by dedicated statistical and clerical staff.

Indeed, I would argue that some of those methodological problems were pretty minor, e.g. :

"Poor justification for conducting the study; No ethics committee approval; Failure to spot word reversal in text leading to wrong interpretation of results; No explanations for ineligible or non-randomized cases; Safety. No mention was made of monitoring patients for untoward effects; Format. The abstract was not written in the structured form requested by Annals; References. No reference cited was more current than 1989 despite the fact that there were numerous more recent studies; 5.Presentation. There were multiple grammatical and spelling mistakes, including the misspelling of propranolol as “propanalol." [2,3]

[1] http://hermiene.net/essays-trans/relativity_of_wrong.html

[2] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2586872/

[3] http://www.annemergmed.com/article/S0196-0644(98)70006-X/ful...

Re: Scientific Regress

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the problem with the lab in China? I don't get it.

The Chinese steal everything they can and reproduce it for cheap. No respect for intellectual property at all. We are being robbed.

Sure... the same way we robbed the UK of its mechanical looms in the 19th century. The US economy was based on IP theft.

It's perfectly normal if you're behind to copy the frontrunner and add your own improvements.

Re: Scientific Regress

#43

I am a post-doctoral research scientist that has wanted to be a scientist since early childhood (6-7 years old). The structure of how science is practiced seems to have changed substantially in that time frame, not for the better. Some of my childhood naivete plays a role in those perceptions, but many older scientists share that perspective. A lot of the problems in modern science revolve around the growing focus on…

The problem is purely one of incentives. If you design a pathological system and make highly intelligent people use it then don’t be surprised with the terrible results. The solution to science is actually very simple - move from a peer review ranked grant allocation system (which is totally gamed by those at the top) to a basic screen and lottery system. The idea is to do a basic screen on grant applications to make…

Or you could take the anarcho-syndicalist approach and split the money evenly to the entire pool, with a lower bound on grant size which makes the money inconsequential and if the lower limit is reached require all grantees to contribute a portion of their time to growing the money pool.

Re: Scientific Regress

#44

My father spent every night of his 30 year career researching semiconductors with a deep belief he would be fired next week if he couldn't bring in enough grant money. He is an amazing scientist and you wouldn't be on the internet today without his spadework but he couldn't give a rat's ass about funding. One day a former grad student showed him some pictures. "That's my lab!" He said. "No, that's the replica I built…

If your goal is the advancement of human knowledge, is it not a good thing that those following behind the pioneers can catch up so easily.

Re: Scientific Regress

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the problem with the lab in China? I don't get it.

The Chinese steal everything they can and reproduce it for cheap. No respect for intellectual property at all. We are being robbed.

We stole movable type and gunpowder from the Chinese. It's payback time.

Re: Scientific Regress

#46
Strange to see that HN is supporting the views of anti-science propaganda, promoted by religious groups. The great thing about science is that it is falsifiable. So, yes, mistakes will be made, specially with so much pressure to publish more papers. But finding the mistakes in these papers is another incentive that leads science to progress, while religion will forever keep pointing fingers without anything better to offer.

Re: Scientific Regress

#47

I am a post-doctoral research scientist that has wanted to be a scientist since early childhood (6-7 years old). The structure of how science is practiced seems to have changed substantially in that time frame, not for the better. Some of my childhood naivete plays a role in those perceptions, but many older scientists share that perspective. A lot of the problems in modern science revolve around the growing focus on…

My father definitely saw lab study fraud while getting his doctorate in the 70s. Academia in the US has resembled the game of thrones since at least the 60s campus revolutions.

Re: Scientific Regress

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is purely one of incentives. If you design a pathological system and make highly intelligent people use it then don’t be surprised with the terrible results. The solution to science is actually very simple - move from a peer review ranked grant allocation system (which is totally gamed by those at the top) to a basic screen and lottery system. The idea is to do a basic screen on grant applications to make…

Or you could take the anarcho-syndicalist approach and split the money evenly to the entire pool, with a lower bound on grant size which makes the money inconsequential and if the lower limit is reached require all grantees to contribute a portion of their time to growing the money pool.

Two problem with this idea. If you don’t have some sort of barrier to entry then anyone can apply for a grant. This funding is made available on the basis that it will be used for science. I know this sounds elitist (it is), but science is really hard and it takes many years of learning to reach the forefront of knowledge where you can actually make a contribution. You only want to give funding to those that can actually use the money to do science. It would be a good idea to have another pool open to everyone to see if this barrier is really required - it might actually not be.

The second problem is if you split the money too much then you won’t actually be able to do any research. To see an experiment through to completion requires a not insignificant amount of money (in most cases). If you start to hand out amounts of only a few thousand dollars at a time then nobody would be able to get any done.

Re: Scientific Regress

#49

>>>First Things is published by The Institute on Religion and Public Life, an interreligious, nonpartisan research and education institute whose purpose is to advance a religiously informed public philosophy for the ordering of society. I'm not quite sure what to think about the bias we might be seeing in this post from this site. This is quite a long essay and there's not a single link on a site that seems like it w…

I saw the nane of the institute in the certificate so knew the context of the article. Still, i found it to be one of the best accounts of current scientific practice i 've read in years.

Re: Scientific Regress

#50
This article makes some good points, although ones that have been made a lot recently, but it hugely oversells the regress argument.

If that was happening, it should be quite easy to measure in some areas: 5 year cancer survival rates should fall, corn yields should drop, and so on. For the most part, we don't seem to see that.

If it was all some sort of faith, and the bad findings were accepted, we should see more-or-less random changes instead of steady improvement

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