Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight • Hacker News Board

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#451

Post by forgetsusername » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:23 AM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #150

mathattack wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goldman's stock price is approximately 25% off it's 12 month high. [0] Morgan Stanley is approximately 35% off. [1] Seems like the market is properly taking in their bad news. Some parts of the market do fine, others get hit. And yes, some might be over-valued. When interest rates are low, the future cash flows of companies are discounted back at a lower rate. So if all things are equal (which they never really are,…

The GAAP P/E of the S&P is now at 24.28, that's near, if not, a record high. That's bad. It's very overvalued historically. Banking stocks are doing badly because interest rates are so low across the curve that they can't make money from the spread. But even at that, they are overvalued along with various momentum stocks like Tesla, Netflix (which we saw implode yesterday.)

>The GAAP P/E of the S&P is now at 24.28, that's near, if not, a record high

Not even close to a record high. It's slightly high, but is it surprising that people are will to put a premium on earnings with negative interest rates?

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#452

Post by hga » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:28 AM UTC

discodave wrote: post #440

api wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worst case scenario: nothing. The R&D goes away. Look at aerospace for a nightmare scenario. In the early 20th century we got fixed wing flight. In the teens and 20s we got motorized fighters and the first passenger planes. In the 40s we got jets. In the 50s we broke the sound barrier and orbited Sputnik. In the 60s we landed on the Moon. In the 70s we... stopped going to the Moon. In the 80s nothing much happened ex…

That's not entirely wrong but you're ignoring the massive price difference for air-travel between the 60s and "slower" 2016. The price drop in air-travel can be attributed to: 1. Technology. Cheaper (per seat), more efficient planes. 2. Consolidation of airlines (and airplane manufacturers). 3. The disruption of full-service airlines by low-cost carriers. In semi-conductors we have been getting along with 1 and a bit…

3. The disruption of full-service airlines by low-cost carriers.

In the US at least, this was due to political deregulation. The process was started by Nixon, but finished in law by Jimmy Carter (!), note also the leading lights of the Democratic party in the signing picture, e.g. Teddy Kennedy 2nd from right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_Deregulation_Act

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#453

Post by forgetsusername » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:34 AM UTC

tma-1 wrote: post #237

criley2 wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The stimulus mode is a permanent regime now" As a general FYI to those reading -- please fact check before commenting. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program ended on Oct 29th, 2014 (538 days ago!) It is difficult to assert that a program which ended over 500 days ago is permanent. Additionally, one may be willing to assert that "ZIRP is permanent regime now" too, to tack onto the culture that central ban…

Yes it's permanent. Interest rates are still super low, meaning companies can still take on debt to buy back their stock. The effect of quantitive easing remains until interest rates start going up and the Fed start buying government bonds from the banks.

>meaning companies can still take on debt to buy back their stock

Please explain the problem here. You're acting like there's some big deception imposed on the public due to companies choosing to return capital to shareholders via one specific mechanism. As if somehow they're buying back stock and "fooling" people into thinking they're making more money or something, and stock prices are irrationally rising. The buybacks, earnings, financials are all open for everyone to read. It's evident by some of your commentary that you can't be bothered.

If you don't agree with the price that other people are willing to sell for shares in this market, you are more than welcome to take the other side of that trade and sell into every buyer on the planet. I'm sure you're not doing that.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#454

Post by sangnoir » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:38 AM UTC

ciroduran wrote: post #434

happosai wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"sure UNIX is nice, but you need a mainframe for REAL work" "sure NT is nice, but you need a UNIX workstation for REAL work" "sure mobile is nice, buy you need a windows PC for REAL work" I crunched to inbox zero with my phone while commuting to work, while I'm typing this at my "real work computer"

I read that statement more like in terms of the freedom you're allowed to build and run applications for such devices. Mobile devices usually discourage the user to do this.

> I read that statement more like in terms of the freedom you're allowed to build and run applications for such devices

Even if we disregard how arbitrary that definition of "computing device" is, it's still a false proposition. Anyone can easily get a browser, a word processor and spreadheets on their mobile device or tablet (ARM). That's about as much computing as a significant chunk of the population requires.

I have debian chroot on my Android device which gives me Vim, GCC and javac out of the box.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#455

Post by toyg » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

intelthrow wrote: post #318

toyg wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Intel can't try to be a brand the way Nike is You'd be surprised -- they already are. Their original "Intel Inside" campaign was groundbreaking and helped them immensely in reaching domination in the PC space. A lot of barely-technical consumers will not have heard of AMD or other minor competitors, but they will recognize Intel and buy accordingly. Techies don't care too much about brands, but non-techies do. Part…

Sure, they spend on marketing, they're visible to the public, and their products are popular, those don't mean they have a brand -- a wide and loyal base of customers asking for their products by name for subjective reasons. The chips sell because they're the best. If people really wanted "Intel" (and knew what they were even buying there) and not just the cheapest / fastest / longest lasting device regardless of how…

I disagree. With all their failures in mobile, you mention it yourself: consumers do know the brand. One of the reasons Intel keeps dominating the PC space is that even at its peak, AMD simply could not get get past the assumption that "chips must be from Intel" in many quarters, be them OEM or consumers. That's real brand power. In fact, their complete dominance is what undermines their own branding: people now assume what they buy will be Intel and don't even check. I bet the Best Buy sales guys studiously avoid mentioning AMD, because it would kill the sale. That's real brand power. Obviously it's not easy, being a component supplier rather than a direct b2c vendor, but I think that Intel punches well above its weight in brand power. It might not be as big as Apple or Nike yet, but it's definitely in another league from competitors.

> The sticker meant nothing

I absolutely disagree. It did mean something, when it was the only sticker. There is a reason stickers became popular right after that.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#456

Post by majewsky » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:51 AM UTC

vacri wrote: post #397

Nullabillity wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even games are slowing down a lot in their requirements, aside from that VR garbage.

Interestingly, there's a strategy game series called Europa Universalis, which moved from a 2D map to a 3D map quite a while ago... the reason being that the 2D map was rendered by the CPU, whereas a 3D map could be shunted off to the GPU to deal with, freeing up precious CPU cycles for the game logic.

2D maps can be rendered by a GPU just fine. However, when you're doing the upgrade from CPU rendering to GPU rendering anyway, you likely want to have some returns, so they probably just went to 3D in the same step with few extra development cost.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#457

Post by ominous » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:52 AM UTC

dgemm wrote: post #379

tmptmp wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Computing devices hmm... only if I kid myself that the mobile phones (even the smart ones) are actually computing devices on which "I can compute whatever I wish to compute AND the way I can compute on a PC". Most of the ARM devices sold are NOT computing devices for the general person who purchases them. It reminds me the fallacy of calling smart-phones "supercomputers in one's pocket". May be the ARM chip based d…

How much "computing" do you think the average user does with a PC?

How much photosynthesis do you think the average planet does with its star? Enough to justify chloroplasts?

How much complexity do you think the average mind generates with its time? Enough to justify the ATP?

How much thinking do you think the average human does with his brains? Are brains worth it? Stay tuned.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#458

Post by Naritai » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 10:10 AM UTC

elliotec wrote: post #398

Deusdies wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) requires that the hiring of a foreign worker will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of U.S. workers comparably employed. To comply with the statute, the Department's regulations require that the wages offered to a foreign worker must be the prevailing wage rate for the occupational classification in the area of employment. The prevailing wage rate is def…

Very interesting. It seems that violations of this law are probably quite often unreported and/or unenforced.

Not really. "prevailing wage" doesn't mean average wage at that company, it means the wage that posted on the Department of Labor website as the minimum wage for that county.

The posted prevailing wage for an EE with 5 years in Santa Clara county, for example, is about $70k (or at least it was back in 2009); so if H1Bs are paid more than that is compliant with the law.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#459

Post by revelation » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 10:11 AM UTC

majewsky wrote: post #432

CydeWeys wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel screwed up and didn't become a major player in the mobile market. They could have, because they are still the world's best chip maker, but they didn't. The mobile market is experiencing the most growth and also the shortest product lifetimes. I still get a new phone every 1-2 years because the upgrades are worth it, but my laptop needs upgrades less often, and my desktop less often than that. Mobile phone proce…

> I still get a new phone every 1-2 years because the upgrades are worth it Really? About the only reason why I'm getting a new phone every so often is when the old one stops being updated. (My Nexus 4 lasted 3 years, and it would have done another year.) Planned obsolescence, if you want.

I'm still using my Nexus 4, that thing has pretty much already set the "good enough" bar we've come to reference for why PC sales are tanking. The only problem is a lack of security updates, but we can't blame the hardware for that.

Incidentally I had a HTC Desire HD before and that became unusable on newer versions, as is the Nexus 7 now. These two clearly didn't have the good enough hardware specs.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#460

Post by baq » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 10:26 AM UTC

a3n wrote: post #314

mark-r wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moore's law may become irrelevant long before it becomes invalid. Without rapid increases in usable computing power, the reasons for upgrading have largely disappeared. In particular the chips at the top of the profit margin curve, where Intel loves to play, are much less compelling. Intel might eventually find itself in the same shoes Kodak did - when your primary business dries up, there's unlikely to be a follow-o…

> Without rapid increases in usable computing power, the reasons for upgrading have largely disappeared. 1. Force Windows 10 upgrade. 2. Windows 10 sucks on this computer! 3. Buy Windows 10 compatible computer.

except windows 10 works, to my anecdotal experience, better than windows 7 on the same box.