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How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

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Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#61
post #43

I think the issue is that OK, say we managed to get to 100% electricity being solar when the sun is shining. You'd still have the time the sun is not shining, which would likely be more expensive than before (a gas powered plant would only be running half the time - effectively doubling its capital/construction cost per kWh). So you'd definitely have an improvement on some levels but I'm not sure that would really he…

Short summary: The issue is not the cost of solar but the cost of storage.

Currently, peak electricity costs are in the daytime. This makes no sense if storage is the biggest problem of the present.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#62
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Suppose solar panels were priced such that, after accounting for installation costs and subsidies and everything else, solar was much cheaper than grid power and paid off quickly. Then pretty much everyone would want one, and the manufacturer would have a huge backorder. So the manufacturers wouldn't do that; instead, they'd price the panels a little higher, sell everything they could produce but not have the backo…

It could depend on a lot of things. If at a price of $100 you have 10 buyers, and at $200 you have 8 buyers, you'll clearly sell at $200.

Only if there was no competition. Otherwise your 8 buyers at $200 would be buying from your competitors at a cheaper price.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#63
post #54

A: It needs to get efficient enough and paired with storage to survive the regulatory kickback. Power companies and non-solar ratepayers will get increasingly unhappy with net metering customers. That joyride will end.

Next up: taxes on solar cells?

Hopefully not before taxes on greenhouse gas emissions.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#64
post #53
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The real big breakthrough would be somme big improvement on storage. I'm not convinced this will happen quickly (at least not in anyway similar to the declining cost of PV panels). The consumer electronics industry has been paying $$$ for decades for better batteries/battery r&d and has seen pretty poor gains. Actually, it's not too bad, just slower. Batteries improve around 8% per year, if I remember right. That's…

Li-ion 18650 cells held 2300mAh in 2005[1], and 3350mAh today[2]. That's an increase of 45% in just under 11 years. If capacity were really growing at 8% per year, then 18650 cells should have a capacity of 5300mAh by now. [1] http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?88468-Tri... [2] http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?417736-Te...

Did you compensate for cost in this example?

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#65
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short summary: The issue is not the cost of solar but the cost of storage.

Currently, peak electricity costs are in the daytime. This makes no sense if storage is the biggest problem of the present.

We're talking about the grid, and there's plenty of demand when solar is not available -- nights, rain, snow, clouds, long winter nights, etc.

To be brief, I left it out, but my ballpark guesstimate is that, due to the cost of storage, for the main grid, solar for free is still not cheap enough. So, that is an answer to a question in the OP -- how cheap does solar have to be? My guesstimate is $0.00 per megawatt hour is still not cheap enough. In really simple terms, the grid doesn't want solar, even for free because of the need for storage and the fact that solar is unstable, e.g., due to just a sudden summer thunderstorm. The grid is super big on stability -- a small source of instability, and the whole grid of the US NE can go down, and at least once did.

Another, related point is that often the wholesale cost of power on the grid has been ballpark $0.005 per KWh, that is, half a penny per kilowatt hour. So, already, now, on the grid, intermittent power is nearly worthless, even when it is excess power from a rock solidly stable source.

And why might there be excess power? Because at the generators it's not so easy to adjust power levels quickly. So, when there's an excess, just sell it off where can, get half a cent for it, and go on.

Very much what the grid wants from the generators is rock solidly stable power, 24 x 7, no snap, crackle or pop, not even for two seconds, for years at a time. And we have that, now, that is, at least from the generators. Sure, for the lines and poles out to the burbs, during an ice storm, the reliability can be lower.

Solar? Fine, if it is cheap enough AND there is good storage to make it reliable enough AND the storage is not too expensive.

Again, the short answer, for solar, for the grid -- the storage costs too much.

Again, we're talking about the grid. There are other candidate uses for solar power -- taking salt out of water (get to store the clean water), pumping water uphill (if have a big dam handy), getting hydrogen from water (get to store the hydrogen or just pump it into a pipeline), making gasoline from coal and water (get to store the gasoline and pump it into a pipeline). So, these uses all have the feature that there is a good way to store the results of the solar power.

People have worked hard on storage for a long time, and that there is little or none installed on the grid indicates that so far no one has a good approach to storage.

Likely, get the solar panels with 100% efficiency for free, and the issue will remain -- cost of storage. A lot of this is just my opinion, but what's been deployed on the real grid makes me suspect I'm basically correct. We can be sure that lots of smart engineers have checked the figures very carefully, and so have the public utility commissions, so we don't really have to go over all the figures ourselves. It's pretty clear that the smart engineers that have done all the arithmetic carefully don't want solar for the grid.

But, sure, some people want to tax carbon, and tax it enough that solar with available storage will be cheap enough. That's another issue.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#66

I think the issue is that OK, say we managed to get to 100% electricity being solar when the sun is shining. You'd still have the time the sun is not shining, which would likely be more expensive than before (a gas powered plant would only be running half the time - effectively doubling its capital/construction cost per kWh). So you'd definitely have an improvement on some levels but I'm not sure that would really he…

Everyone seems a bit obsessed by batteries as a storage method, when we have more traditional methods: - Pumped-storage hydroelectricity - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricit... . Sure it's not suitable everywhere. - There's always Molten Salt as well - http://www.solarreserve.com/en/technology/molten-salt-energy... . Also, solar isn't the be all and end all of renewable energy generation. Wi…

And considering this, a big question is will the market move away from centralized power systems. Will it be more viable to have a local/household level power generation and storage or will scale continue to give cost savings. This will likely have the biggest effect on storage/generation methods used. Possibly hybrid with distributed for suburb/rural and consolidated for urban/commercial? Or locally generated with grid peak power? Interesting times.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar doesn't much compete with petroleum. Its main effect is to reduce prices for coal. You'd expect that this might start to affect the profitability of coal companies eventualy.... For solar to affect petroleum , whose primary use is transport , we'll need to solve the storage problem. Tesla notwithstanding that has not happened. Electric vehicle sales were 0.66% of unit auto sales in 2015, and actually represente…

>electric vehicle sales were 0.66% of unit auto sales in 2015, and actually represented a sharp numeric decrease from 2014 Can you site this source please? I am very curious to see the data! thanks

US auto sales in 2015 were 17,470,000.

US EV sales in 2015 were 116,000.

That's 0.66% of total unit auto sales.

EV sales compares with 122,000 units in 2014, or negative growth in 2015 by 6,000 units, or about 5%.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160105/RETAIL01/160109995/...

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

(I'd happened to have looked this up a day or so back in another discussion.)

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#68
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what Danielle Fong at Lightsail has been doing since 2009. They've had investment from Bill Gates and Peter Thiel. They've developed a way to compress and decompress air efficiently by heating/cooling the air. by using a carbon fibre air canister they are able to store air at a much higher pressure than previously possible. Her Ted Talk[1] and their website[2] explains it much better than I do. [1] https://ww…

Compressed air storage rings of a scam to me. They never mention how efficient it is to compress the air and turn the air back into electricity. It's always how efficient their storage tank is, which on paper gives batteries a run for their money. When sizing an industrial air system a rule of thumb is to budget 7-8hp of compressor for 1 hp of air motor. That is 12% efficiency, or only worth it if you had no other so…

My understanding is that the grid-scale stuff will be using natural geological reservoirs -- basically re-filling old gas wells with air.

My understanding isn't particularly deep, and I'd like to run numbers on storage, volume, pressure, etc. But I suspect this'll have to be big enough that constructing cans really isn't viable.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#69
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar to pumped water storage I wonder if we could do a household version with weight. Something like the gravity light (gravitylight.org) but on larger scale. I wonder if we could see a resurgence of chimneys on houses except now instead of letting smoke out they contain a XY ton weights that gets pushed up by excess solar capacity during the day, and then drops by evening powering the house. I have no idea if tha…

A much better and denser option for storing energy mechanically is flywheels. I haven't researched what happened to this option since but when I was looking into it 15 years ago it seemed like a good option that needed more R&D into frictionless axles and vacuum chambers.

Excellent rapid response, second only to capacitors. But pretty poor densities, and hugely significant engineering challenges.

Flywheels that don't become fly-apart wheels is one problem.

Containment of fly-apart wheels another. Buried concrete pipes are usually what you're looking at. You need mass to contain these things.

The per-kg energy densities just aren't all that high. If you want reactive load to soak up very short-term demand / supply fluctuations, you can get that. And you've got crazy charge-discharge cycles.

Bearings are mostly solvable with magnets, as I understand. But you still lose a given percentage of storage over short time -- ~1% per hour or so, within a few powers of 2. Enough that long-term storage isn't viable.

And the thing that really screws you over is that the Earth moves. Geometric precession of your flywheel is something you've got to deal with.

There's a place, but I don't think it's large-scale, long-term grid storage.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#70
post #8

Installation has to get much cheaper. Installation is now more than the cost of the panels for most single family home installations. Home roofs are poor support surfaces. Panels which are the roof have potential. The "solar shingle" vendors are making progress.[1] [1] http://msdssearch.dow.com/PublishedLiteratureDOWCOM/dh_0944/...

Right. And that works for new build.

But for the vast majority of dwellings that means removing a roof, which doesn't exactly lower the installation cost...

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