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San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

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Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#231

Post by gozur88 »

turnip1979 wrote: post #222
aianus wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People I meet seem to own 2-3 condos a piece. Everyone thinks they'll just rent them out. I think we are almost guaranteed to have a condo collapse in the near future. If you're not hung up on owning, this is a great spot to be in. I can already rent a luxury condo here in Toronto for less than (mortgage interest + property tax + maintenance) would cost me if I had purchased it. Rich landlords are effectively subsi…

My worry is that a day will come when rents start to increase. My great fear is that this will happen precisely when interest rates are high. What will we renters do then? We will truly have no choice then. The housing market in the UK is going through something like this now.

They're not going to raise interest rates in the teeth of a housing crash. You're going through exactly what I went through where I live, and I was able to pick up a house for half what it would have cost if I bought when I moved here.

The previous owner bought at the peak and still owed double what I paid. Don't be that guy.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#232

Post by morgante »

lsc wrote: post #225
morgante wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They form the same labor market though. Fewer startups puts less pressure on the price for hiring engineers. You don't have to many any assumptions about advertising dollars (the vast majority of which come from outside SV) to see how a startup slowdown will also have an impact on all engineering salaries.

> They form the same labor market though. Fewer startups puts less pressure on the price for hiring engineers. Yeah. I guess two questions. 1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups? My impression is that they have an outsized PR footprint for the number of jobs there. 2. If I'm right that they get paid less, (which is my experience and belief, but I have no hard data to back up my assertion) a…

> 1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups?

Based on my inbox, half the hiring is from startups.

> are the engineers working at startups mostly just entry-level folks?

No. Startup compensation is certainly less cash, but it's also more variable. At better startups, you'll find plenty of senior engineers including ex-BigCo people.

Also keep in mind that for top engineers there's also the competitive option of founding a startup. If funding cools down substantially, then that prospect becomes much less attractive and companies have to worry less about retaining talent.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#233

Post by yardie »

scurvy wrote: post #221
outworlder wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the way the economy has crashed, this won't go on for long.

Which economy has crashed?

Probably Brazil's. It's a shitstorm at the moment. I think the smart, rich brazilians moved their money overseas, Miami for example.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#234

Post by gozur88 »

thescriptkiddie wrote: post #203
Cypher wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if houses are flat its still better to put your cash into one than the bank...

Contrary to popular belief, real estate is literally never a good investment. At best, prices go up faster than property tax and you profit modestly from the misfortune of others for a couple of years before the bubble bursts. At worst, your investment is rapidly eaten away by depreciation and maintenance costs.

It's true houses aren't a very good investment over the long haul, but for most buyers with the leverage involved you can end up with quite a windfall if you get lucky.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#235

Post by lsc »

morgante wrote: post #232
lsc wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They form the same labor market though. Fewer startups puts less pressure on the price for hiring engineers. Yeah. I guess two questions. 1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups? My impression is that they have an outsized PR footprint for the number of jobs there. 2. If I'm right that they get paid less, (which is my experience and belief, but I have no hard data to back up my assertion) a…

> 1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups? Based on my inbox, half the hiring is from startups. > are the engineers working at startups mostly just entry-level folks? No. Startup compensation is certainly less cash, but it's also more variable. At better startups, you'll find plenty of senior engineers including ex-BigCo people. Also keep in mind that for top engineers there's also the compet…

>Also keep in mind that for top engineers there's also the competitive option of founding a startup. If funding cools down substantially, then that prospect becomes much less attractive and companies have to worry less about retaining talent.

In my experience, If you are not an 'executive track' type; I mean, if you don't have both the contacts and the business skills, you are generally going to make a lot more money as an Engineer at a big company. I mean, like most technical people, I used to think I was a lot smarter than my boss. I mean, I maybe still think that, depending on what you mean by 'smart' - but I tried, and I can tell you that business is a complex thing that requires a completely different skillset, and after trying it? smart or not, it's something I'm terrible at, or at least if you compare the "what a big company would pay for the labor in" even to my raw revenue, I apparently destroy a lot of value.

And yes, yes, you partner with a business person! But... you know how there are 10x programmers? the difference in productivity of business people is way, way bigger than 10x. And just like hiring Engineers, it takes one to know one... I'd argue that it's even harder to hire a businessperson profitably, because negotiation and perception management are core skills for the businessperson.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#236

Post by morgante »

lsc wrote: post #235
morgante wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups? Based on my inbox, half the hiring is from startups. > are the engineers working at startups mostly just entry-level folks? No. Startup compensation is certainly less cash, but it's also more variable. At better startups, you'll find plenty of senior engineers including ex-BigCo people. Also keep in mind that for top engineers there's also the compet…

>Also keep in mind that for top engineers there's also the competitive option of founding a startup. If funding cools down substantially, then that prospect becomes much less attractive and companies have to worry less about retaining talent. In my experience, If you are not an 'executive track' type; I mean, if you don't have both the contacts and the business skills, you are generally going to make a lot more money…

I never said it was necessarily wise to start a startup. Having worked on my fair share, I quite agree that it's very difficult and you need very strong business skills.

However, people (including very good engineers) are not rational and in boom times are attracted to the idea of founding a startup even if it's economically undesirable.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#237

Post by Domenic_S »

anxman wrote: post #190
gigawhat wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, if married and you've been there a couple of years. $250k if single. Still, almost anyone who bought a house a few years ago in the area is sitting on at least $500k in gains. So even if taxes on the remainder are arguably fair from a revenue perspective, they are another constraint on housing market liquidity.

There's two scenarios in which one can avoid or delay taxation when his home has appreciated: 1) $250k deduction if single ($500k deduction if married) during the year in which the capital gains has occurred. 2) Convert the property to a business and use a 1031 Like Kind Exchange in which 100% of the profits can be rolled into a new property and deferred until that property is liquidated or the gains are realized.

For 1), you must have owned the home for 2+ year to qualify. If you're moving under 2 years for a "qualified reason" (death, birth of multiples, 50+ miles closer to work) you can take a pro-rated deduction.

For 2), you cannot do a like-kind exchange for residential property that you live in as your primary home.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#238

Post by anxman »

Domenic_S wrote: post #237
anxman wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's two scenarios in which one can avoid or delay taxation when his home has appreciated: 1) $250k deduction if single ($500k deduction if married) during the year in which the capital gains has occurred. 2) Convert the property to a business and use a 1031 Like Kind Exchange in which 100% of the profits can be rolled into a new property and deferred until that property is liquidated or the gains are realized.

For 1), you must have owned the home for 2+ year to qualify. If you're moving under 2 years for a "qualified reason" (death, birth of multiples, 50+ miles closer to work) you can take a pro-rated deduction. For 2), you cannot do a like-kind exchange for residential property that you live in as your primary home.

Yes, thanks for the clarifying points.

For (2), if you convert the residential property into a business by renting it out, at what point can you do a 1031?

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