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San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

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Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#101

Post by bodyfour »

soperj wrote: post #91
jonnathanson wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"SF on the other hand is just seeing their ceiling come into play. Only so many people can justify raising a family and purchasing a home in The Bay. Why not change jobs to Seattle or Portland and make around the same money, but spend half on a house? I think that's what we're seeing. " It's more than just tech workers. SF real estate prices have been influenced significantly by foreign speculation (especially from C…

Why isn't this drying up in Canada then?

Some of the difference in nominal price appreciation is currency driven -- the US dollar has been strong and the loonie has been (relatively) weak.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#102

Post by gorkemyurt »

Developers are finally building in SF..

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2016/04/san-franciscos-hu...

This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. There is actually still a lot of space in SOMA/Mission Bay/Central Waterfront to build. New construction is all going to be condos rather than single family homes, people who want to live in single family homes and drive to Costco on the weekends (nothing wrong with that) will continue to move to Seattle or Portland.

Money is flocking to SF from all over the world through VC companies and mutual funds, still. It used to be VCs with previous exits who already live in the region but in the last 2 years a lot of dumb money coming in. At some point in the next 5 years Uber, Airbnb, Pinterest, Lyft, Dropbox, Slack, Palantir and Stripe are going to have exits, even if 3 out of 8 lives up to their potentials these exits are going to create a lot of potential home buyers. Facebook, Google, Apple and Netflix (yes, netflix) are going to continue growing their empires. If SF's city officials can pull it off, with the increased investments in public transportation eventually San Francisco is going to become a global A+ city. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city)

Only a 'black swan' event can stop SF's medium term growth. We already had a 'black swan' event in tech in the recent history, burst of 2000, everyone is expecting a similar story here. It's the nature of 'black swan' events that if people are already expecting things to fall apart, the magnitude is much less. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#103

Post by scurvy »

OldSchoolJohnny wrote: post #59
jschwartzi wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it means you don't have to pay rent after you retire.

There are untold retired people who have been forced to move due to rising property taxes. Many of the benefits of owning evaporate when you take into account everything .

CA prop 13 fear monger much?

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#104

Post by cbhl »

soperj wrote: post #91
jonnathanson wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"SF on the other hand is just seeing their ceiling come into play. Only so many people can justify raising a family and purchasing a home in The Bay. Why not change jobs to Seattle or Portland and make around the same money, but spend half on a house? I think that's what we're seeing. " It's more than just tech workers. SF real estate prices have been influenced significantly by foreign speculation (especially from C…

Why isn't this drying up in Canada then?

It's easier to become a naturalized Canadian for Chinese nationals, isn't it? Maybe the Chinese buying homes in the Canadian market are actually planning to move there and raise kids (as opposed to pure speculation in the US market).

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#105

Post by fchollet »

gorkemyurt wrote: post #102

Developers are finally building in SF.. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2016/04/san-franciscos-hu... This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. There is actually still a lot of space in SOMA/Mission Bay/Central Waterfront to build. New construction is all going to be condos rather than…

> If SF's city officials can pull it off, with the increased investments in public transportation eventually San Francisco is going to become a global A+ city.

This is the most hilarious comment I've read on HN in a long time.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#106

Post by scurvy »

gorkemyurt wrote: post #102

Developers are finally building in SF.. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2016/04/san-franciscos-hu... This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. There is actually still a lot of space in SOMA/Mission Bay/Central Waterfront to build. New construction is all going to be condos rather than…

There's huge swaths of single family homes in SF; just not in the areas of soul-less high rise hotel/condos that young tech people seem to prefer.

You do realize there's a Costco in Soma right? It's swamped with people. I go, and I live in Russian Hill.

I agree with the rest of your statement, but they're only building in a very small part of SF and catering to a narrow demographic. Soma 1br condo prices can implode, but RH and Pacific Heights 2-3BR places will only go up.

Don't buy the nicest place in a bad neighborhood. Buy the most modest place in a nice neighborhood. Let everyone else bring up your home's worth.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#107

Post by scurvy »

fchollet wrote: post #105
gorkemyurt wrote: post #102

Developers are finally building in SF.. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2016/04/san-franciscos-hu... This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. There is actually still a lot of space in SOMA/Mission Bay/Central Waterfront to build. New construction is all going to be condos rather than…

> If SF's city officials can pull it off, with the increased investments in public transportation eventually San Francisco is going to become a global A+ city. This is the most hilarious comment I've read on HN in a long time.

They must not know SF's history...

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#108

Post by jorts »

spriggan3 wrote: post #88
nattaylor wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition to what reverend_gonzo said, there is the simple fact that rents (mostly) go up and mortgage payments don't.

Yes, like subprime mortgage rates didn't go up ...

They were variable rate loans or had balloon payments... If you get a fixed rate loan the amount you pay per month on your mortgage will not go up.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#109

Post by 727374 »

Sales plummet 22% in SF, yet there's a bidding war on every property? This implies that demand still outpaces supply so I don't see how you could predict a crash, yet. In reality, prices only dropped 1.8% y/y. And that was for March, which is traditionally a low-inventory month. I personally think the correction is still a year out.

Re: San Francisco Home Prices Fell for the First Time in Four Years in March

#110

Post by mooreds »

marincounty wrote: post #85
tortilla wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bit off topic, but how was your experience with Redfin? I'm thinking of using them.

I don't know anything about this company. I have an idea what market they are trying to crack. I can't believe it's taken this long. I've always felt paying a Realtor 3% on the biggest item most of us will buy in our lives is crazy. I just don't know what they do for that commission. I don't know what makes one successful--just because he/she sold more than the others? Pay them more because they know how to network?…

I used to work in the RE business and there are good agents that earn that value and there are bad agents that don't.

You are paying for market expertise, negotiating experience and arms length distance.

On a slightly different note, this podcast and the book "The Middleman Economy" go into detail about why middle men (like real estate agents) are useful: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/03/marina_krakovsk.htm...

Edit: typos

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