41–50 of 118 posts
Weight of 342 bars of gold would be 4255-kg (9381-lb)... ...find it hard to believe the carrying capacity of an average taxi would support this.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> How about "An arrogant way of living?" Haha. Yeah, it is amazing how much his arrogance and pride seemed to play into his behavior. He could have exited this whole situation in Brazil [Retiring] a wealthy man and would have been largely immune since they didn't have the ability to get their hands on him. > His OPSEC sucks. I mean, I'm amazed that he didn't get caught earlier in some unrelated investigation using hi…
"My guess is if he stayed out of hard drugs, arms, etc. he might have also stayed completely safe because it sounds like they simply couldn't handle him until it got kicked to the FBI/DEA/etc." That's basically Ratliff's claim, too. He would've gotten away with it.
It is basically a public admission that the Government is completely ineffective with anything vaguely resembling a competent criminal. It makes me question if we are allocating law enforcement resources correctly.
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Edit due to rate limit:
> I know that sounds far-fetched. Our government employs many smart, capable people in FBI and SEC that could certainly stop it.
I'm honestly not sure it is as far-fetched as it sounds. Resources appear to be allocated to "narcotics" and "terrorist" buckets very heavily with little regard to the impact on less glamorous investigations. My concern is this allocation may have opened very large holes around threats that are unlikely to create headlines.
Smart, capable people can only do so much if they lack the resources to investigate people with serious and competent OpSec.
> I'm just... paranoid... that the Le Roux case means bigger things might be going on that would do way more damage than addicts getting drugs reliably.
Honestly, I don't think you are paranoid. I think if something like that happened the current investigatory capability of the various agencies appears to be unable to do much if such a plot was competently executed.
That said, I think it is unlikely anyone would attempt to execute an action on such a scale because he clearly had to flee to another country.
I think legal means are more effective on a risk-adjusted basis in terms of financial costs. The critical slice of people whose opinions can be shifted between candidates seem vulnerable to advertising and rhetoric. Truth remains malleable enough that sufficient funds expended can create it during the election cycle and that is the only real control that matters.
> You'd think that with this level of incompetence a few banks could straight up foreclose on millions of mortgages cooked up Enron style. Hell, they might one-up Paul Le Roux by buying or installing a Treasury head. At this rate, you'd think they'd cut a deal for immunity while keeping lots of money due to less recklessness. They might even use the complexity of their operations to negotiate for more money to prevent fall-out coming back on everyone else. Might cost $1-6 trillion dollars in such a scenario.
Honestly, I'm pretty sure our system has largely legalized bribery via campaign contributions and the fact they can keep them on retirement.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/campaign-finance-senators-hou...
> Turns out that despite strict Federal Election Commission rules, Bayh and other exiting elected officials do have ways to keep unspent political contributions.
So I'm not sure I'm the best person to talk to about this. I'd just reinforce your paranoia since I think you are largely correct on the political side.
On the commercial side, I think that is honestly why we have so many problems like LIBOR fixing that go unnoticed:
> Simply put, then, it seems the misreporting of Libor rates may have been common practice since at least 1991. Although the difference between the reported rate and the actual rate might seem small, the total amount of money involved is material, given that Libor rates affect contracts worth hundreds of trillions. Also important is what such misreporting says about the culture.
I think this misallocation has led to alot of the recent banking scandals, honestly, and its disturbing to see further evidence in a secret-now-public criminal case that is unrelated.
Weight of 342 bars of gold would be 4255-kg (9381-lb)... ...find it hard to believe the carrying capacity of an average taxi would support this.
In Hong Kong 1 kilo bars are very popular. From the article: acquired $30 million in one-kilogram gold bars from Metalor Technologies
Also, 342 one-kilo bars at $1000 USD an once appears to be worth $1.2 million, not $2 million.
Possible math/logic is flawed, or I'm missing something, but often found people say numbers that if hashed out don't add up.
Another great, fun write-up by Ratliff. I'm surprised by by a number of things which I'll comment on in a disorganized way. :) One is how often Israeli commandos turn up in these organizations. In parallel, there's their well-known effectiveness plus the risk of Mossad connections that can burn you. Mexican cartels, Colombian, Paul Le Roux... they all buy them up. Cheap, too. I'd like to hear their logic on that. Tha…
I dunno. My personal opinion is that humans to some extent are innately good, and that it's the broken ones who turn to crime. Furthermore it's the EXTREMELY broken ones that become the crime lords etc. and those people often have massive flaws in their character such as the arrogance you described. Basically I don't think he could've ever accomplished what he did if he wasn't arrogant and wreckless to his core.
Weight of 342 bars of gold would be 4255-kg (9381-lb)... ...find it hard to believe the carrying capacity of an average taxi would support this.
If you image search "gold bar" you'll find a lot of images other than the stereotypical large "Good Delivery" (400 troy oz ~12.4 kilos, Wikipedia has more details on the Good Delivery specifications). Apparently 1000g bars ("Kilobars") are common for trading, but there are images of "Credit Suisse" 100g bars that turn up as well.
See my response to a comment on the same level as your comment for my attempt to look at the numbers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
"My guess is if he stayed out of hard drugs, arms, etc. he might have also stayed completely safe because it sounds like they simply couldn't handle him until it got kicked to the FBI/DEA/etc." That's basically Ratliff's claim, too. He would've gotten away with it.
Correct. I'm just restating it because I find it amazing given what that implies for grey market and white collar crime. It is basically a public admission that the Government is completely ineffective with anything vaguely resembling a competent criminal. It makes me question if we are allocating law enforcement resources correctly. ----- Edit due to rate limit: > I know that sounds far-fetched. Our government emplo…
"It is basically a public admission that the Government is completely ineffective with anything vaguely resembling a competent criminal. It makes me question if we are allocating law enforcement resources correctly."
...that. You'd think that with this level of incompetence a few banks could straight up foreclose on millions of mortgages cooked up Enron style. Hell, they might one-up Paul Le Roux by buying or installing a Treasury head. At this rate, you'd think they'd cut a deal for immunity while keeping lots of money due to less recklessness. They might even use the complexity of their operations to negotiate for more money to prevent fall-out coming back on everyone else. Might cost $1-6 trillion dollars in such a scenario.
I know that sounds far-fetched. Our government employs many smart, capable people in FBI and SEC that could certainly stop it. I'm just... paranoid... that the Le Roux case means bigger things might be going on that would do way more damage than addicts getting drugs reliably.
Another great, fun write-up by Ratliff. I'm surprised by by a number of things which I'll comment on in a disorganized way. :) One is how often Israeli commandos turn up in these organizations. In parallel, there's their well-known effectiveness plus the risk of Mossad connections that can burn you. Mexican cartels, Colombian, Paul Le Roux... they all buy them up. Cheap, too. I'd like to hear their logic on that. Tha…
I dunno. My personal opinion is that humans to some extent are innately good, and that it's the broken ones who turn to crime. Furthermore it's the EXTREMELY broken ones that become the crime lords etc. and those people often have massive flaws in their character such as the arrogance you described. Basically I don't think he could've ever accomplished what he did if he wasn't arrogant and wreckless to his core.
I agree.
it's the EXTREMELY broken ones that become the crime lords etc. and those people often have massive flaws in their character such as the arrogance you described.
If you examine crime lords and their activities and morality, then compare them with world leaders from before 1800, then you will find that the behavior they exhibit is fairly common in the repertoire of history.
Also note that our present culture has been tremendously influenced by the governments they ran. That's why it takes so long to "wake up from history."
What miraculous luck that such a thing would happen, purely of his own free will.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
In Hong Kong 1 kilo bars are very popular. From the article: acquired $30 million in one-kilogram gold bars from Metalor Technologies
I have one-kilo as being 35.27-ounces - and an ounce of gold costing roughly $1000 USD. If true, 30 million worth of gold in one-kilo bars would be 850 bars; meaning a lot appear to be missing. Also, 342 one-kilo bars at $1000 USD an once appears to be worth $1.2 million, not $2 million. Possible math/logic is flawed, or I'm missing something, but often found people say numbers that if hashed out don't add up.
Another great, fun write-up by Ratliff. I'm surprised by by a number of things which I'll comment on in a disorganized way. :) One is how often Israeli commandos turn up in these organizations. In parallel, there's their well-known effectiveness plus the risk of Mossad connections that can burn you. Mexican cartels, Colombian, Paul Le Roux... they all buy them up. Cheap, too. I'd like to hear their logic on that. Tha…
> How about "An arrogant way of living?" Haha. Yeah, it is amazing how much his arrogance and pride seemed to play into his behavior. He could have exited this whole situation in Brazil [Retiring] a wealthy man and would have been largely immune since they didn't have the ability to get their hands on him. > His OPSEC sucks. I mean, I'm amazed that he didn't get caught earlier in some unrelated investigation using hi…
All really good points. I found myself having to re-read the part where he was actually brought in by the authorities, thinking to myself how hard it would have to be to actually trace Le Roux the man. I wasn't fully expecting him to be captured until the next installment, actually.
It just seems amazing for someone who had been security-minded to let arrogance and big risks, mainly the high risk crimes, bring him down. In a way, this part of the story reminds me of the recently deceased Howard Marks who went bigger and bigger until he went down.
Even so, stories like these make me wonder how many drugs/weapons smugglers, etc. do turn in for that "early retirement" as millionaires. Must be quite a few.