Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#81

Post by arebop » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 3:58 PM UTC

dota_fanatic wrote: post #29

Disclaimer: I don't know anything about anything. Some parents can put 850k in a account for their child when it's born that gets invested, say in the American economy (grows by say 7% over an average, long time period), which compounds until later in life, and when they grow up, they can access it. With good financial responsibility, this child won't have to work a day in their lives and can live off the returns. Wh…

This requires amassing the capital to get started. Does it seem harder to get all that capital than to get half of it? Really you only need to get 7% of it this year to pay the over-18s.

What investments should be used in the account exactly?

What do you do about the temptation of the administrators to "borrow" from the reserves, direct the investments to benefit themselves, hoard extra resources or underfund the plan by estimating the future revenues or expenses a bit too high or low?

Your idea isn't bad exactly, just complicated by these extra provisions such as "the basic income shall be derived from investment proceeds from individual accounts."

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#82

Post by pierrebai » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:00 PM UTC

VincentEvans wrote: post #23

Why wouldn't all standard of living benefits of basic income get eliminated immediately by all relevant costs rising to soak it up? This happens every single time the poor get any sort of money. In poor neighborhoods the rents cost as much as people are able to pay, no more, no less. Do you know when most rental deposits are collected? Around the tax return season. If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the r…

I fail to see by what mechanism what you describes occurs. Do you constantly query your occupant of pay raises? Why would every raise be siphoned by rent? Poor people have problem making ends meet for clothes, food, etc. Sure, more money put inflationary pressure, but it's not a magic direct correlation and instant feedback. If the government is serious and declares that it will adjust basic income to match the market price for basic goods and regulate their prices, including building low-rent lodging, then the inflationary pressure will have to subsides into only unregulated items.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#83

Post by inflagranti » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:01 PM UTC

ancap wrote: post #44

In the past century we have countless examples of socialism failing, yet its proponents devise some new scheme, some new brand and try to sell it as if something will be different this time. Socialism will always fail because it is contradictory to human nature.

We have countless examples of capitalism failing too. But the argument that socialism is against human nature is obviously wrong, as humans are social animals. However, as any animal, if you corner them and put them in survival mode, things can get ugly.

The purpose of modern states is exactly to provide security in multiple ways, one of them being shared financial security, to remove the need of constant struggle for survival and allow the social side of humanity to flurish.

As an example on a smaller scale: There were enough articles recently for instance about Amazon, as an extreme example of hiper competitive anti-social environment that encourages people to backstab each other and play politics to advance. Pure survival mode. Compare that for instance with companies like Google, that spoil everyone and even give you 20% time for free. So far they haven't collapsed. Now you can argue that companies are not countries, but I don't see how such learning don't apply. That exactly is the human behaviour argument.

Sorry in advance for the ad-hominem, but that supposedly intelligent people even here on Hacker News keep reiterating old tropes about socialism and human nature unreflected, while any research in that regard or simple observations as illustrated above are contradictory to it, is baffling.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#84

Post by maxerickson » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:01 PM UTC

branchless wrote: post #75

maxerickson wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

rayiner mentions mobility in a cousin comment. In a healthy housing market, rents should roughly match the price of new construction (plus some profit) rather than being set just by the existing supply.

Rents have nothing to do with the price of construction. Prices are set by available credit for purchase and by wages less other essentials for rent. I'm afraid this isn't simply supply and demand fudge factor after construction costs at all. ------------- Reply to child post as HN hates rentier slayers and throttles. They function in that prices are set. But they are set by credit. And supply is inelastic. Banks use…

Yes, I agree that housing markets suck.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#85

Post by Retric » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:05 PM UTC

asmithmd1 wrote: post #61

Retric wrote: post #3

I think we should just call it what it is a dividend. We have crossed a point where handing off 10% of everyone's income allows for a reasonable minimum standard of living. But, because progress is always going to cost some people more than others we need to align incentives. Sorry, I know your a world class doctor, but Auto Scan (TM) just does a better job. The important thing to remember is that % for a given stand…

The numbers seem to work for the US. A 10% income tax increase redistributed to all US households would be ~$11,000 per household, which is right about what the poverty line is for 1 person. If your household makes less than $110k you get a tax cut, above $110k you will be paying more to prevent social unrest. All numbers in Billions and for 2014 Total earned income $14,700 Total income tax $1,000 -------------------…

I think suggestions reduce low income tax breaks and other social welfare programs while introducing a BI. ~11k per year could be close to net tax neutral.

EX: A flat tax at the highest rate would adds ~2,745$ to everyone above of the first tax bracket $9,275/yr, next tax bracket is hands out 6,980$, together that's a 9,725$ benefit for everyone making over $37,650/yr already being baked into the tax code.

On top of that you get things like HUD, education grants etc. Not to mention the 60+ million people getting Social Security.

PS: Not that I think the odds are good in the US any time soon. But, we are facing a lot of systemic issues which could promote a huge range of reforms.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#86

Post by VincentEvans » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:06 PM UTC

pierrebai wrote: post #82

VincentEvans wrote: post #23

Why wouldn't all standard of living benefits of basic income get eliminated immediately by all relevant costs rising to soak it up? This happens every single time the poor get any sort of money. In poor neighborhoods the rents cost as much as people are able to pay, no more, no less. Do you know when most rental deposits are collected? Around the tax return season. If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the r…

I fail to see by what mechanism what you describes occurs. Do you constantly query your occupant of pay raises? Why would every raise be siphoned by rent? Poor people have problem making ends meet for clothes, food, etc. Sure, more money put inflationary pressure, but it's not a magic direct correlation and instant feedback. If the government is serious and declares that it will adjust basic income to match the marke…

I certainly don't "constantly query", but somehow there's always a feedback of what is a successful economic model.

I have so many examples of this. For instance due to terrible public schools - private schools cost roughly what it would cost you to move to a good neighborhood with good public school.

Day care - costs around what the government contributes as day care assistance.

Etc...

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#87

Post by ancap » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:07 PM UTC

f_allwein wrote: post #73

ancap wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? We have had "automation" in some form or another for many millennia and we have not needed a "basic income". Every technological advancement from the invention of hand tools, to creating complex machines can be loosely classified as "automation" and in every case the standard of living has increased and resources were then allocated to some more productive means. Why is today's automation any different?

The general argument (made e.g,. in the Alec Ross book) is that there will not be enough paid work left as more and more jobs are automated. So paying a basic income would become necessary to ensure people's survival (or prevent social unrest).

Just around my home I could easily hire a few people to do various jobs at any given time, but it is not cheap enough for me to justify doing that. Automation comes at a cost, and often humans laborers can do the job cheaper. The thing that will be pushing people out of a job is minimum wage, not the automation which often results in reaction to minimum wage.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#88

Post by codeismightier » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:08 PM UTC

pierrebai wrote: post #82

VincentEvans wrote: post #23

Why wouldn't all standard of living benefits of basic income get eliminated immediately by all relevant costs rising to soak it up? This happens every single time the poor get any sort of money. In poor neighborhoods the rents cost as much as people are able to pay, no more, no less. Do you know when most rental deposits are collected? Around the tax return season. If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the r…

I fail to see by what mechanism what you describes occurs. Do you constantly query your occupant of pay raises? Why would every raise be siphoned by rent? Poor people have problem making ends meet for clothes, food, etc. Sure, more money put inflationary pressure, but it's not a magic direct correlation and instant feedback. If the government is serious and declares that it will adjust basic income to match the marke…

Housing is, to a certain extent, a positional good. People want to live in safe, friendly neighborhoods, surrounded by well educated, middle to upper class people. Even if everyone got more money, it's not easy for more people to live in desirable neighborhoods (at least without changing the character of those neighborhoods).

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#89

Post by WorldMaker » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:09 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #20

Overtonwindow wrote: post #2

Negative. Those with money will fight like hell to keep from giving it up. However if by some chance/miracle a guaranteed income is ever instituted, it will become a political football, as politicians and advocacy groups seek to continuously push it higher and higher. Instead of a money handout, I would rather support money in exchange for public works and service. I don't believe handouts without some kind of exchan…

I agree on the points of exchange for public good. Even poor people are loath to see others getting by on "freebies". But a progressive system where BI depends on need (age, for example) and commensurate effort (volunteering, helping take care of elderly, studying, training, etc.) I think is doable and will need to be worked out as more jobs get automated and people are left out of the economy either due to mismatch…

The systems we have today are the compromise results of such a "progressive system" where system income depends on need (age [Social Security, Medicare], circumstance [Unemployment, Social Security Disability, SNAP, Welfare], etc) and based on "commensurate effort" (previous wages, complicated forms, layers and layers of proofs, ...).

Have you had to file for Unemployment "Insurance" yet, in your lifetime? It's a complicated circus to get back money that you "paid in". You have to prove, and then re-prove, your past earnings and tax amounts that had paid into the programs (plural if working across state boundaries); you have to "be actively seeking work" and prove, every single week, that fact with somewhat embarrassing forms to fill out to get the money that you already set aside for this already embarrassing situation...

These systems treat you as "guilty-by-default" and we've let the worry of possible fraud, however unlikely, turn these systems into giant theaters of "fraud reduction" and complicated terror on the individuals dealing with the system.

Basic Income, by expecting to be unqualified and guaranteed to all regardless of need or effort, is intentionally about simplicity and about avoiding the giant red tape spaghetti that is our current "entitlement" systems. If everyone gets it, equally, then you don't need to worry about "fraud" and you don't need to worry about "proof".

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#90

Post by kspaans » Thu, Apr 14, 2016, 4:10 PM UTC

maxxxxx wrote: post #40

Overtonwindow wrote: post #2

Negative. Those with money will fight like hell to keep from giving it up. However if by some chance/miracle a guaranteed income is ever instituted, it will become a political football, as politicians and advocacy groups seek to continuously push it higher and higher. Instead of a money handout, I would rather support money in exchange for public works and service. I don't believe handouts without some kind of exchan…

I also don't believe it can't work long term unless attitudes change dramatically. People who work for a low income will complain that there are people who get almost the same without doing any work. The same wealthy people who lobby for more tax cuts will also not want to pay for people who don't do anything. There will be a lot of people who will use the freedom granted by basic income for productive means but ther…

> but there will also be a lot of people who won't do anything productive and just live off their basic income.

Won't do anything productive like spend money on food, housing, and entertainment? They will just sit inside and stare at the walls all day.