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Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

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Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#101
post #92
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm thinking bigger than Wal-Mart. I'm thinking the world's largest foreign reserve owners, China and Japan. In fact, in China's attempt to weaken their yuan, do capital controls, provide growth and jobs to they're lowest populace so the central govt doesn't face revolt -- You see the shadow of GD and BI China even went so far to implement economically irrational activities like state owned enterprises, whose primary…

China and Japan each have their own currencies. If they wanted to provide a basic income right now, they could pay for it by issuing new Yuan or Yen. The Gresham's Law hack is for bootstrapping a new currency, so they don't need it. But so long as they forgo basic income, their currencies are vulnerable to disruption by a currency like Gresham Dollar. China is inventing fake jobs and facilitating a massive credit bub…

I'm not convinced that China's state-owned enterprises are a useful proxy for basic income.

Why not? The people employed by these SEO get income (for doing nothing of value to the country). These people arguably are not being able to be productive otherwise because they're stuck in an old industry and their skills are obsolete as such. If left to their own devices, without SEO income, they're likely on the streets and massive unemployment. It's not far off to say that the SEO employees are in a "special kind" of unemployment benefit.

Exactly the kinds of people BI are supposed to help.

So why won't it be a proxy?

In what sense? Basic income is continually replenishes the economy with fresh money, lessening the role of unstable credit. That's not what's happening in China.

Until it explodes (which hasn't yet and may not for another 60 years!), China is continuously replenishing SEO loans. It's fresh money to the economy if they are spent. The retail vendor accepting SEO earned yuan couldn't tell the different between that and the non-SEO yuan. So it's effect in the economy is approximately what your BI/GD seeks out to do.

Yes on the surface, the difference may appear that in a debt driven approach, China may have a credit event in the future, and GD driven approach doesn't -- but I think it does, in a different way.

The essence of what I'm about to say is highlighted by finance professor Michael Pettis blog entry "Thin air money isn't created out of thin air" "http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/10/how-to-spend-thin-airs-endog...

Jumping to the most relevant parts, I quote:

In the second case, assume the other extreme, in which the economy has a tremendous amount of slack – there are plenty of unemployed workers who have all the skills we might need and can get to work at no cost, factories are operating at well below capacity and they can be mobilized at a flick of the switch, and there is enough unutilized infrastructure to satisfy any increase in economic activity. In this case when loan creation or deficit spending creates demand “out of thin air”, in other words, it also creates its own supply. When Thin Air spends money to buy certain goods or services, those goods and services are automatically created by switching on the factory equipment and putting unemployed workers to work.

There is also a multiplier at work here. Assume that Thin Air’s spending is for investment, and that it plans to acquire $100 of goods and services for investment purposes. Because it has no need to build capacity or acquire inventory, the full expenditures will go towards paying wages. Let us further assume that the newly hired workers save one-quarter of their income.

As Thin Air pays wages, the workers will spend 75% of those wages on their own consumption, and they will save 25%. Their own consumption will require the production of additional goods and services, which will require hiring more workers. In order that Thin Air acquire $100 of goods and services, it can easily be shown that the total expenditures of Thin Air and of consuming workers will be the original $100 divided by the 25% savings rate,

(This is the important part) so that in the end GDP will rise by $400, consisting of $300 additional consumption and $100 additional investment. Because the increase in GDP exceeds the increase in consumption by $100, total savings will have risen by $100.

In an economy with enough slack to absorb Thin Air’s investment fully, in other words, the investment creates enough of a boost in the total production of goods and services that it becomes self-financing – it increases savings by the same amount as it increases investment. Notice then, once again, that at no point is the identity between savings and investment ever violated.

(And the point that addresses the core:)

In reality no economy will ever have zero slack, as in the first case, or full slack, as in the second, but instead will exist in some combination of the two. In that case Thin Air’s demand created “out of thin air” will partly be met by suppressing demand or investment elsewhere within the economy, and partly by creating the larger amount of goods and services needed to satisfy the increased demand.

If you study the rest, it basically means that GD/BI will invariably compete with traditional investment, savings and demand. It MUST.

With a economic effect multiplier of 300%, any slack will be absorbed so quickly, that unless GD/BI stops, it will start eating into productive-economy's GDP. If there is a BI, it cannot be allowed to get very big, certainly cannot be viral.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, in the initial phase, as long as you are putting USD into the system for merchants to cash out, it seems like it would work. However, once you and investors stop funding GD, and the expected value of GD goes down, a merchant would then be selling goods paid for in USD, and receiving GD worth less than their USD cost. This would be a negative profit per sale and no volume effect of sales in GD would make up for t…

Merchants typically have margins of at least 35%, so they may make smaller profits, but probably not negative. It may be a discount, though the value of GD is not measured solely in it's USD value.

I looked up the annual reports of the major grocery store chains operating in the US Southeast. Operating profits were Publix 8%, Food Lion 3%, Harris Teater 1-2%.

Grocery stores are high volume, low margin business. Even a 3% increase in the cost of getting paid would brutal.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#103
post #99
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another effect is that not only would GD be viral, BI inside this system itself would become viral. By "viral," do you mean "inflationary"? I'm not sure how useful it is to compare student loans to basic income. Student loans have to be paid back. And they can only go toward college, so they cause market distortions that a basic income wouldn't cause. Many of the products and services we use benefit from economy of s…

By "viral," do you mean "inflationary"? Not just inflationary. I mean that the Basic Income inside this system, will seek out and destroy "actual income". It weakens actual income to the point of irrelevance over time, just like what is happening in any govt subsidized fields. Simple inflation driven by growth is arguably a "good thing". But instead we get inflation driven by "free-money" driving out "earned-money",…

Basic income will certainly affect price levels in uneven and unpredictable ways. I can understand why you're concerned. The same is true of free trade. There are always going to be winners and losers. But, as far as the macroeconomy is concerned, it's the most efficient way of doing things.

I could make some very compelling arguments about why basic income wouldn't make child care, surgery, education, or nursing more expensive. Perhaps, though, we'd see inflation in the price of luxury goods in rural villages in India, where the amount of the basic income would be relatively huge. But by getting into specific examples, we'd be losing the forest for the trees.

Your distinction between "free money" and "earned money" is failing to resonate with me. Once the money is in a consumer's hand, does it matter how it got there?

People who don't need or qualify for BI, who makes money the hard way, will now need to compete with money from BI

This is an important point. Not everyone will receive the basic income at first. As we roll out the basic income, we should be careful about mitigating any resentment toward those who receive it. The basic income would eventually be something that everyone gets, but before then, this is a real concern.

Clearly, you feel very strongly about all of this. If you have any additional questions about Gresham Dollar, I'll be happy to address them.

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