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Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

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Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#71
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a few different ways we can build our USD reserves, but the primary one is through a crowd investment system that I've devised. Investors will be purchasing, at a pre-negotiated discount, GD to be delivered at a future date. I call them "Future Gresham Dollars." Investors can sell their FGD to other investors in a secondary market to profit early or they can hold them until we succeed and reap their exact p…

I think these sort of measures could be built into the algorithms behind the management of the currency. The entire infrastructure could be run by bots. Cyber security will need to be tight, though probably not initially. As I understand it, this is about social justice, ie, leveling the playing field. Post-transition for GD would mean that all accounts are activated to receive basic income, and they would do so on a…

I think these sort of measures could be built into the algorithms behind the management of the currency.

That's the idea. I'd like to set it up so that everyone can see that we couldn't abuse the system even if we wanted to.

As I understand it, this is about social justice, ie, leveling the playing field.

It's primarily about economic stability. Social justice is a side effect.

Post-transition for GD would mean that all accounts are activated to receive basic income, and they would do so on an equal basis.

Yes. In fact, the plan is for all accounts owned by individuals to be receiving a basic income well before the transition date. Obviously, businesses do not receive a basic income.

Initially, the currency is seeded in communities that need BI the most, and then becomes contagious to the world at large.

Yes, but only because those who need it the most have the highest marginal propensity to consume. This maximizes the initial circulation of GD. If you give it to a rich person, they're far less likely to spend it.

Ultimately, the system also prevents hoarding of currency and incentivizes exchanges.

Hmm. I'm not sure what you mean. For Gresham Dollar to work, it assumes some level of "monetary entropy," (I just made that term up). In other words, money starts at a higher velocity but ends up accumulating in hoards. Basic income provides a steady supply of fresh money to counterbalance monetary entropy.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#72
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You incentivize merchants with new customers that will shop exclusively at GD accepting merchants. After you have these merchant agreements in place, it will then be easier to incentivize the merchant suppliers to accept GD in order to stay competitive in their market. Yes. Gresham Dollar would creep up the supply chain. The model, as I see it here so far, does not take into account the administrative costs of doing…

We'll take a small portion of the investments we receive and put it toward paying operation/capital expenses. The rest of it goes toward boosting our USD reserves. I won't get into specifics because I don't have the specifics worked out. Even if I did, they'd be boring. OK, but this could get problematic. The costs of operation and infrastructure will not be trivial, especially as the project grows beyond the bootstr…

The costs of operation and infrastructure will not be trivial, especially as the project grows beyond the bootstrapping phase.

Hmm. These costs would be trivial compared to the total amount of USD we have in our reserves and the total amount of GD in circulation. I'd like the infrastructure to be as distributed as possible. As the central authority, we'd only be paying to operate the small part of the infrastructure at the top of the heirarchy.

Have you considered the option of a dedicated trust fund to maintain the project's infrastructure that is supported by a not-for-profit organization?

Interesting idea. I hadn't considered that, no. What would it look like?

As I understand it, the principle behind this currency is that it decays, and thus people will prefer to spend it first, otherwise it will expire and convert into USD at the account's reserve rate.

That's not quite right. The currency does not decay. In normal times, 100% of GD converts to USD. The reserve rate only comes into play when our total USD reserves fall to our required reserve level. When that happens, we have Disruption (see other comments), during which GD does convert only at the reserve rate. But the portion that doesn't convert to USD gets rolled over (its lifetime is reset) and remains in your account.

We never destroy GD without converting it into the exact same amount of USD.

When given the choice, people spend GD first, not because it decays (it doesn't), but because Gresham Dollar is the inferior currency:

1. USD is more widely accepted and therefore versatile.

2. USD is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

3. Gresham Dollar is this new thing that people don't exactly trust.

I guess what it boils down to is this: Would you rather spend your real USD, or something that will only turn into USD after 30 days? If a merchant happens to be accepting the thing that isn't even USD yet, you'd spend that.

But, I may also have a basic income of GD trickling into my account and I can buy GD with USD at the pegged 1 to 1 ratio, or buy FGD at the speculative market rate.

Yes.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#73
post #67
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. Especially at the beginning, merchants won't find many other businesses who will take their GD, so even if they wanted to spend it, their options would be limited. But they do have a few options, including: 1. Merchants can use their GD to pay their employees bonuses. Those employees, who also have a limited number of places to spend it may then turn around and spend their GD back at their employer agai…

I really like the goal of this project. I don't have many ideas that would help get it circulating. Maybe look for smaller communities that source a lot of supplies locally and launch pilot programs there. You could get the whole community on-board since you could be injecting a significant amount of money into a small economy. Convenience and lack of transaction fees could be an incentive to spend. Sending USD to fr…

I don't have many ideas that would help get it circulating. Maybe look for smaller communities that source a lot of supplies locally and launch pilot programs there. You could get the whole community on-board since you could be injecting a significant amount of money into a small economy.

That's an interesting thought. Money can circulate more in smaller local economies where everyone contributes.

PayPal broke into the scene by going onto eBay, creating a bunch of auctions and saying, "We accept PayPal." Then people asked what PayPal was. We could do something similar.

Another commenter, Kinnard, suggested that poor communities whose members all have Gresham Accounts might naturally exchange GD amongst themselves. We'd have to figure out a way to make that easy to do. Not every low-income person is going to have access to phone apps, etc.

We're targeting lower-income people because they may not often have a choice about whether to spend USD or GD. They spend whatever money they happen to have. They need no incentive to spend GD over USD when GD is their only choice.

Convenience and lack of transaction fees could be an incentive to spend. Sending USD to friends and family typically involve waiting periods, transaction fees and inconvenient processes (cheques, email money transfers). Of course, Venmo and Paypal have improved this in recent years.

Yes. We would want to provide the basic functionality of PayPal/Venmo, but for both USD and GD.

Combining the above two ideas, you can launch in communities outside the U.S. where financial inclusion is limited. There are many places where the majority of people don't have bank accounts. They already lack the advantages of credit/debit cards, paypal, etc. They may not have enough assets to make opening a bank account worthwhile. Granting people there basic income and GD accounts could solve both these problems. Plus, by choosing a location with a smaller economy and lower cost of living, you could have a more pronounced effect with the same amount of investment. You could team up with a charity that already gives money to these communities.

Once GD is accepted at some big online retailers, we can provide poor international communities with GD basic incomes that they can spend at e.g. Amazon or trade among themselves. That's basically my plan for international expansion. Before the GD arrives in the U.S., it's unclear whether we'd want or need it to have the ability to automatically convert to USD. And if we don't, perhaps we could issue paper GD internationally, which would be useful for communities who don't have as much access to digital technology. It's illegal to print any kind of currency in the U.S., so we wouldn't do anything similar here.

Maybe create a service for merchants where they could spend their GD. Some kind of customer loyalty program that pays out rewards in GD, or an advertising service that lets merchants advertise to people with GD accounts.

Anyone can use their GD to buy FGD, but I'm not sure it would make sense for merchants to want to do that. I like your idea of selling advertising. The ads will give users ideas about where they can spend their GD (and their USD).

Honestly, getting a new currency into regular circulation seems like a really hard problem.

Yeah. And it would probably be near impossible if the U.S. government were already paying its citizens a basic income. There needs to be something fundamentally broken about the way a currency is being managed in order for it to be susceptible to disruption. I believe USD fits the bill.

Good luck!

Thanks for your thoughts!

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#74

Having had some time to consider this, questions and observations. (Some duplication of HN discussion -- it unfortunately pretty much dies after a day or so, G+ has the advantage of keeping those interested in a discussion looped in.) 1. How do you make money doing this? 2. Where does the investment for USD come from? How is this renewed? How are loans and/or investors paid back? What risks do they face? 3. What are…

1. How do you make money doing this?

I don't profit. The investors do. They pay USD to buy a certain amount of GD deliverable at a specific future date (the Transition) that's the same for everyone. Since all FGD becomes GD at the same time, all FGD is equivalent and is fungible; there can be a market for it. If you're an investor and you buy your FGD cheap, you could flip it for a profit when its price increases.

As the transition date approaches, the price of FGD converges to its nominal face value in GD.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#75

Having had some time to consider this, questions and observations. (Some duplication of HN discussion -- it unfortunately pretty much dies after a day or so, G+ has the advantage of keeping those interested in a discussion looped in.) 1. How do you make money doing this? 2. Where does the investment for USD come from? How is this renewed? How are loans and/or investors paid back? What risks do they face? 3. What are…

2. Where does the investment for USD come from?

The USD reserves are crowd funded through the selling of Future Gresham Dollars. I've described FGD in other comments.

Our USD reserves also increase any time someone converts USD to GD in their account.

How is this renewed?

If we desire more USD reserves, we can sell more FGD to the open market.

The FGD debt doesn't renew. We just issue more of it as needed. And after the transition date, there's no longer any such thing as FGD.

How are loans and/or investors paid back? What risks do they face?

On the transition date, all FGD becomes GD. The risk is that, if Gresham Dollar fails, GD may not be worth as much as the investors were hoping.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#76

Having had some time to consider this, questions and observations. (Some duplication of HN discussion -- it unfortunately pretty much dies after a day or so, G+ has the advantage of keeping those interested in a discussion looped in.) 1. How do you make money doing this? 2. Where does the investment for USD come from? How is this renewed? How are loans and/or investors paid back? What risks do they face? 3. What are…

3. What are the barriers to entry?

The barriers to entry are primarily intellectual. I've never heard of this idea before. Most people (including economists and politicians) would balk at the suggestion that the United States could fund a basic income through perpetual deficit spending. People tend to think of basic income only as a way to address social welfare. I see it as a fundamental source of economic stability.

Once people see Gresham Dollar succeeding, they may create their own Gresham Dollar Type (GDT) currency. There's no reason why all the various GDTs wouldn't coexist in synergy.

Why doesn't _everyone_ start such a service? An "I'm creating my own money, care to join" venture is fine and dandy, but one thing a currency sovereign enjoys is, well, currency sovereignity. And in particular, legal tender status.

Gresham Dollar is not an "I'm creating my own money, care to join?" venture. It's an "I'm giving away free money in the form of IOUs for USD that you can spend before they become USD, do you want some?" venture.

We piggyback on the currency sovereignity of USD. We're backing ourselves against an existing currency, which is what central banks do.

I actually came up with this idea last year when I was pondering a possible Greek exit from the eurozone. I asked myself what would happen if the Bank of Greece tried to re-introduce the drachma. With too few capital controls, they'd have trouble stemming a currency run that would deplete their reserve of euros thus collapsing the drachma/euro exchange rate. With too many capital controls, they'd have trouble enforcing an official exchange rate.

So I asked myself what would be the smoothest way for a country like Greece, who's mostly out of money, to introduce a new currency? The answer I came up with was for the central bank to forgo on-demand currency exchange in favor of a kind of timer on new drachma that automatically converted it into euros when it expired. But the trick would be every time the new drachma get spent, the timer on it would reset. Thus the more the new drachma circulated, the less the Bank of Greece would dip into its euro reserves. Furthermore, the less people trust the new drachma, the more likely they are to try to get rid of it. If a Greek citizen has euros in one hand and drachma in the other, he will spend the new drachma first, thus keeping it alive.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#77

Having had some time to consider this, questions and observations. (Some duplication of HN discussion -- it unfortunately pretty much dies after a day or so, G+ has the advantage of keeping those interested in a discussion looped in.) 1. How do you make money doing this? 2. Where does the investment for USD come from? How is this renewed? How are loans and/or investors paid back? What risks do they face? 3. What are…

4. Who's left holding the bag? If this collapses, who loses out? Presumably, merchants. Is there any provision made for this possibility?

The investors are left holding most of the bag. In the end it will look like what we did amounted to the equivalent of taking money from investors and handing it out to people.

We have a provision for what happens when our USD reserves fall to the level at which we can only meet our present obligations. It's called the Disruption event (see other comments).

If Disruption hits, merchants are still guaranteed to get a certain percentage of their GD converted into USD, as specified by the reserve requirements stipulated in the contract they signed. We also have a single required USD reserve level to back the non-merchant accounts. Initially, our reserve requirements for everyone will be 100%, then we'll gradually lower them.

At any given time, users will be able to see how much of their GD balance is guaranteed to convert to USD. The GD balance is divided into three parts denoted in three different colors:

GREEN: GD that is guaranteed to convert to USD even if Disruption occurs at the soonest possible date given current USD reserve levels.

YELLOW: GD that is guaranteed to convert to USD even if everyone stops spending their money immediately and allows their GD to sit idle.

RED: GD that would be suspended (not convert to USD) if everyone stops spending their GD immediately.

Users will be encouraged by seeing their red and yellow balances shrink with time as the potential Disruption date moves further into the future.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#78
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other are two possible scenarios when the price is too low: * Someone with a deep pocket decides to buy as much as possible at a high discount, say 1 cent per dollar, and wait 30 days and get a 100x gain in a month. (There are some funds that specialize in this kind of operations with bond from developing countries. Usually it takes more than a month to get the money, but sooner or later the country has to pay, b…

These are important points. Thanks for bringing them up. * Someone with a deep pocket decides to buy as much as possible at a high discount, say 1 cent per dollar, and wait 30 days and get a 100x gain in a month. * We've addressed this concern in a very specific way through something I call the "activation cap" on GD, which limits the pace at which GD can convert to USD. The activation cap doesn't apply to merchants…

I like the analogy from Argentina. Bank runs equivalent is the major weakness - or people who profit from runs will attack it to make it happen. See Soros.

GD, if it's meant to create distrust and runs, almost by definition must over time lose its value compared to USD.

It might start off 1:1 with us US dollar, but it must drop for the simple fact because it's supply will exceed USD. There are more complex issues I'm skipping, like the mass psychology of perception of value could actually create a panic where none might be warranted.

If it keeps dropping, the what it can buy with it will also drop.

What's the point of basic income then if eventually tens of thousands of GD is required to buy bread and basic income is only several thousand (point is, not enough to make a difference)?

This happens in a sort of way in real life already... Because govt meddle in education loans and subsidies for college, the result isn't that there are more availability of education only, there's also an ever increasing climb , almost unhooked from reality, if tuition costs. And some people simply stop paying back, which in a way results in a kind of wealth transfer effect like your GD.

But the lethal point that is becoming ridiculous, is that colleges no longer have incentive to adhere to reality and prices go to the moon.

Applied to entire economy, you get hyper inflation. Your GD can't distribute fast enough when mass psychology sets in.

That's another fundamental problem with currency or its like -- the entire human race is really not just cooperating with it, every one will also try to game it. It's like a horde of intelligent learning agents trying to bring it down for his own benefit.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#79
I want to explore another angle of this point I brought up (i mentioned this below for a different point):

"What's the point of basic income then if eventually tens of thousands of GD is required to buy bread and basic income is only several thousand (point is, not enough to make a difference)?

This happens in a sort of way in real life already... Because govt meddle in education loans and subsidies for college, the result isn't just that there are more availability of education only, there's also an ever increasing climb , almost unhooked from reality, of tuition costs. And some people simply stop paying back, which in a way results in a kind of wealth transfer effect like your GD.

But the lethal point is that no force stops the inertia from becoming ridiculous. We already see that colleges no longer have incentive to adhere to reality and prices go to the moon. To remain effective, GD BI have to climb, and off we go to the races.

Applied to entire economy, you get hyper inflation. Your GD can't distribute fast enough when mass psychology sets in."

Another effect is that not only would GD be viral, BI inside this system itself would become viral.

Like the college tuition example, over time, this will disintegrate to the point that people who really make a living and earn USD (or any other way to measure real money, not the BI allocation) will be eclipsed. Everything will become like college. There will be nobody left will be able to afford it in full without some kind of help.

Either that, or the BI effect and influence Will diminish and we're back to square one.

In this sense, I'm back to what I said above. The BI powered by GD is going to become viral on viral. It will destroy the real economy completely, until nothing is left. The structure it's such that they cannot both coexist.

Re: Apply HN: Gresham Dollar – Viral Currency for Basic Income

#80
post #66
post #63

Wow, crazy idea. However, no matter how good or plausible this idea is, it's extremely vulnerable to itself... Central banks have power not only because they can issue currency, but also because they are a monopoly (in their sphere of influence). Nothing stops someone else, including the govt or someone trying to destroy the system, from replicating this and give out Another Dollar (AD). In fact, if there's even a hi…

The glib answer I usually give people is that it would be great if someone stole my idea because then the world's economy would fix itself without my help. I'd just go back to having fun and doing my own thing. I've long assumed that basic income was inevitable. I didn't know how we'd get there, but I was optimistic about the future. I still believe that basic income is inevitable, but now I have a way to help it hap…

I'm thinking bigger than Wal-Mart. I'm thinking the world's largest foreign reserve owners, China and Japan.

In fact, in China's attempt to weaken their yuan, do capital controls, provide growth and jobs to they're lowest populace so the central govt doesn't face revolt -- You see the shadow of GD and BI

China even went so far to implement economically irrational activities like state owned enterprises, whose primary goal is to keep people employed and have some income, so there's no revolt. (For those that don't know, China govt is especially sensitive to revolt, much more than U.S. Because it happened so many times in history and the prior government members are all killed in a major way when it happens).

Thus, economic rationality be damned even if these SEOs are bleeding gobs of money or blowing a debt bubble.

Taken together, a lot of your Gresham dollars / basic income properties are already in place. In spirit at least.

And we see the flaws/limits.

Even with China's massive reserve, recently there have been coordinated attack by hedges including Soros, draining its reserves. And internal rich people are engaged with massive capital flight (despite the controls).

And the basic incompatibility of long term BI sapping productive parts of the country, all show up. At this point, either SEO(which is really like China's BI) goes away for good, or China will blow a debt bubble so big, that it explodes and kills everything, SEO included. Or USA included unfortunately.

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