The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It • Hacker News Board

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#121

Post by okaramian » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:50 PM UTC

rsync wrote: post #109

nkurz wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am simplifying greatly, but in a broad sense, SF housing is as expensive as Boston housing I don't think that's true even in the "broad sense". San Francisco rents may be roughly comparable to to NYC, but are significantly more than Boston: https://www.zumper.com/blog/2016/04/zumper-national-rent-rep... It may not be true, but I think the argument would be that in the absence of Prop 13, SF rents would indeed be co…

I don't know ... I do know I have seen a lot of commentary and postings right here on HN about the prohibitive cost of housing in Boston - perhaps it is just certain desirable areas in the center, or Cambridge ...

I grew up and currently live in the Boston area and lived in CA for several years.

Different areas just have different issues, but I think in both cases they come from the same source (issues related to supply and demand). Prop 13 creates a supply problem, new housing stock needs to be built because it's not beneficial for people to move or sell their homes due to the tax lock in. That happens in some areas, but the output is sprawl, increasing people's commute times.

Boston's issues are different, and it's based more on new stock not being built due to zoning issues and the MBTA not growing fast enough to make other areas more accessible to the city as the city has grown and attracted more business.

That said the costs in San Francisco are on another level compared to Boston. San Francisco is more comparable to NYC with regards to rent.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#122

Post by djb_hackernews » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:51 PM UTC

nkurz wrote: post #104

rsync wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sympathetic to the notion that prop 13 is a massive distortion that is driving all of these problems ... But I have a hard time reconciling that with the relative pricing in other equally desirable coastal areas that do not have prop 13 (or anything like it). I am simplifying greatly, but in a broad sense, SF housing is as expensive as Boston housing is as expensive as NYC housing ... and certain hot-or-not insp…

I am simplifying greatly, but in a broad sense, SF housing is as expensive as Boston housing I don't think that's true even in the "broad sense". San Francisco rents may be roughly comparable to to NYC, but are significantly more than Boston: https://www.zumper.com/blog/2016/04/zumper-national-rent-rep... It may not be true, but I think the argument would be that in the absence of Prop 13, SF rents would indeed be co…

I think that on a total cost basis SF is more expensive than Boston, but I think your money goes a lot further in SF than it does in Boston. The units in Boston tend to be smaller, without amenities, ancient, in need of significant repair or all of the above.

I wouldn't be surprised if like for like, Boston is indeed more expensive than SF... I just checked Redfin for properties in core of Boston (Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Downtown, etc) built since 2000 and roughly average square foot price was $1200. Did the same thing for SF (focusing on SoMa area) and it looks like it's more like $1000/sq ft...

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#123

Post by capkutay » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:57 PM UTC

mdb333 wrote: post #28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281... Good thoughts. You failed to mention Prop 13 which was put into place a long time ago and simply doesn't make sense anymore. It's at least part of the reason it is so affordable (in relative terms) for rich people to keep second homes here when they bought them years ago. We live in a building of 60 units where probably at least a third of those are abse…

If you care about SF housing, please just show up to Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors meetings. Talking about policy on hacker news is useless. Better yet, start or join a grassroots group of at least 10-15 people and thoughtfully present all your ideas without coming off as insensitive towards the homeless or low-income individuals. There's TONS of room for public input in SF, it's what makes our planning process unique. In many cases, this leads to a deficit in housing because planning is so sensitive to the request of those who actually show up to meetings and make their case.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#124

Post by batbomb » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:04 PM UTC

zt wrote: post #18

ModernMech wrote: post #10

The folly with arguments blaming San Francisco for the problem is the fact that the entire Bay area is priced at an insane level. Take another look at this [1] BART map with corresponding home prices for each stop. Yeah, it's cheaper to live outside of the city, but it's still crazy expensive. The median sale price for a house in Pittsburg is $430,000, with a 62 min commute into SF. If you live 62 minutes outside of…

(I'm the author). You make excellent points, and I don't mean to minimize the regional issues. Sure, if I had a magic wand then I'd increase housing being built across the Bay Area. In fact, I'd like consolidate the jurisdictions in the Bay Area, but that's a whole other argument. I don't quite know how to play out the claim that demand is infinite. One, I don't believe that. And, two, it seems like an argument that…

I'm not saying this is your motivation, but when it's a proposal to the housing problem is framed as "Let's Fix San Francisco" it feels like the proposer believes they must live in San Francisco, especially when the proposer isn't a native San Franciscan. It feels tribal, and this issue is extremely tribal, and anyone who appears to belong to a specific tribe chimes in with a "We need to fix San Francisco" undoubtedly people from other tribes chime in and complain about how that tribe is the problem and the conversation usually devolves into name calling at some point.

When the proposal is a bit broader, i.e. "Let's fix the Bay Area", then, at the very least, it doesn't feel like a claim is being made on San Francisco by a specific tribe.

More than anything, it's the tribal nature of this issue that really sucks and it really stalls the things for everyone.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#125

Post by Fede_V » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:18 PM UTC

slyall wrote: post #84

wernercd wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you completely ignore the "time and amount of houses it would take" aspect. If you can only build 10 houses, and make 10% commission... are you going to build a shack? or are you going to build mansion? The houses that get built, if the gates were to open wide, would all start off on the high end... while that would start a downward pressure, it would still be a very long time before those who can afford $200k fo…

You are missing the point. Houses for poor people are almost never built, instead poor people live in 50 year old places that were built for the rich or middle class. What happens is that 10 people move into those new places and 10 people move into their old one and the vacancy works it's way down the line. Eventually some guy down the bottom gets slightly cheaper rent or a better place. Imagine that instead 100,000…

I think you are exactly right, and in a healthy market that's what would happen. In practice, I believe we are so far from equilibrium that it would take such a long time for the trickle down effects to push housing costs in a range which is affordable for people that aren't well off.

Telling people that within 10-15 years if you keep building several hundreds of thousands of houses eventually rents will be affordable is not a winning slogan :)

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#126

Post by zeemonkee3 » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:18 PM UTC

ZanyProgrammer wrote: post #52

zt wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I'm the author) Even putting aside the ethical and moral arguments, which carry a lot of weight for me: (1) There are network effects in urban environments. (2) Globally, specific industries often concentrate in specific cities. A lot of tech has concentrated in the Valley up to the San Francisco. The effects are getting stronger as that migration occurs. That's a great thing: it allows for people to move between co…

And yet there's nothing inherent with software development that makes SF and the Bay Area any different from lots of other cities, other than inertia. It's amazing that an industry that prides itself on being non traditional is so tied to a specific geographical location, as if there's some valuable mineral that can only be mined in SOMA and downtown Palo Alto.

How much of this is down to VCs/incubators insisting startups move to the Bay Area?

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#127

Post by khuey » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:21 PM UTC

Renevith wrote: post #97

Agustus wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In your example, the building you describe is a condominium? If so, then what does it matter what your tax bill is and if they are absentee owners; if the owner maintains the property, pays their bills and taxes, then you should be happy to have them. Tax reassessments during the boom of 2001 to 2007 were on track to price a lot of people out of their houses based on their current economic status. Proposition 13 and…

> If you have a job that pays $100,000 and the taxes on your $250,000 house is $7,500 (3% property tax) and the tax quadruples to $30,000 in five years; why would you want the market fluctuations to be able to force an individual to leave their house? I shed exactly zero tears for someone whose $250k property quadruples in value to $1m in five years. Sell the house and dance with joy at your (untaxed!) $750k capital…

Technically you would pay capital gains taxes on around 250k of the gain, and 500k if you're not married. You can deduct improvements/maintenance from the gain, but capital gains from owner-occupied real estate are taxed in the US if they're large enough.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#128

Post by Grishnakh » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:21 PM UTC

Renevith wrote: post #97

Agustus wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In your example, the building you describe is a condominium? If so, then what does it matter what your tax bill is and if they are absentee owners; if the owner maintains the property, pays their bills and taxes, then you should be happy to have them. Tax reassessments during the boom of 2001 to 2007 were on track to price a lot of people out of their houses based on their current economic status. Proposition 13 and…

> If you have a job that pays $100,000 and the taxes on your $250,000 house is $7,500 (3% property tax) and the tax quadruples to $30,000 in five years; why would you want the market fluctuations to be able to force an individual to leave their house? I shed exactly zero tears for someone whose $250k property quadruples in value to $1m in five years. Sell the house and dance with joy at your (untaxed!) $750k capital…

>I shed exactly zero tears for someone whose $250k property quadruples in value to $1m in five years. Sell the house and dance with joy at your (untaxed!) $750k capital gain.

Ok, now where are they supposed to live? All the other properties cost just as much, so now they're forced to not only move out of the city, but now they have to quit their job too! How is this productive? You're penalizing someone for living in a housing bubble and not taking advantage of it. Even worse, you're penalizing current residents for having their house values driven up by a bunch of out-of-state (or out-of-country) investors and speculators.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#129

Post by khuey » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:24 PM UTC

pinaceae wrote: post #39

ModernMech wrote: post #10

The folly with arguments blaming San Francisco for the problem is the fact that the entire Bay area is priced at an insane level. Take another look at this [1] BART map with corresponding home prices for each stop. Yeah, it's cheaper to live outside of the city, but it's still crazy expensive. The median sale price for a house in Pittsburg is $430,000, with a 62 min commute into SF. If you live 62 minutes outside of…

BART now designates high-cost areas. You can see it in the tri-valley, the new Whole Foods in Dublin is a good indicator. Now they want to build an IKEA next to it. Poorer, non-tech people are getting pushed out to Tracy and made-from-scratch exurbs like Mountain House. SF is just the center, Oakland/Berkley is getting hit hard now. The Uber acquisition of that large office complex in Oak has set off a bonanza. The h…

How exactly do home owners get pushed out? Who is making them sell their properties against their will?

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#130

Post by oppositelock » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 10:33 PM UTC

Agustus wrote: post #67

mdb333 wrote: post #28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281... Good thoughts. You failed to mention Prop 13 which was put into place a long time ago and simply doesn't make sense anymore. It's at least part of the reason it is so affordable (in relative terms) for rich people to keep second homes here when they bought them years ago. We live in a building of 60 units where probably at least a third of those are abse…

In your example, the building you describe is a condominium? If so, then what does it matter what your tax bill is and if they are absentee owners; if the owner maintains the property, pays their bills and taxes, then you should be happy to have them. Tax reassessments during the boom of 2001 to 2007 were on track to price a lot of people out of their houses based on their current economic status. Proposition 13 and…

It's not the market fluctuation that's forcing people to leave the house, it's the tax and the state's enforcement of it. If taxes are pricing people out, lower the rate!