The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It • Hacker News Board

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#111

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:01 PM UTC

mahyarm wrote: post #79

Agustus wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In your example, the building you describe is a condominium? If so, then what does it matter what your tax bill is and if they are absentee owners; if the owner maintains the property, pays their bills and taxes, then you should be happy to have them. Tax reassessments during the boom of 2001 to 2007 were on track to price a lot of people out of their houses based on their current economic status. Proposition 13 and…

It creates a built in incentive for NIMBYs to not block development, lest they feel the pain of increased 'rent' too. If the bay area built as many units at the rate of texas or seattle for example, none of this would of been a big deal. Imagine old people viciously fighting for increased development lest their property tax bill goes up, unlike the opposite today at most city council meetings. The elderly drive most…

This. If anyone wants to see what a real estate market looks like without property tax, come to China. Even a good property in a first tier city is 40% vacant. It acts to inflate property bubbles as housing becomes just another asset.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#112

Post by rsync » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:05 PM UTC

baddox wrote: post #24

ModernMech wrote: post #10

The folly with arguments blaming San Francisco for the problem is the fact that the entire Bay area is priced at an insane level. Take another look at this [1] BART map with corresponding home prices for each stop. Yeah, it's cheaper to live outside of the city, but it's still crazy expensive. The median sale price for a house in Pittsburg is $430,000, with a 62 min commute into SF. If you live 62 minutes outside of…

> I expect what would really happen if SF just went all in building new housing, is that prices would drop in the city slightly, allowing people to move back into the city, thus increasing demand and increasing prices back to where they were. That seems unlikely to me, based on intuition and my admittedly elementary understanding of economics. It seems very unlikely that a significant increase in the quantity of hous…

It would indeed cause the pricing to drop, but just temporarily until all the new housing stock was filled.

Basically, the author is suggesting that (within practical bounds) the demand for housing inside SF is unlimited.

I think it's a fair assessment.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#113

Post by zt » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:06 PM UTC

ZanyProgrammer wrote: post #64

zt wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing inherent about finance that makes New York and London any different than a lot of other cities, other than inertia. It could be otherwise than it is, that's sort of the truth of network effects, but it's difficult.

Favorably comparing Bay Area software to Wall Street is an odd thing to hear from you.

I don't like big banks, but that doesn't mean finance has been bad for NYC.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#114

Post by henrikschroder » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:08 PM UTC

Maarten88 wrote: post #82

I visited San Francisco last week (for the Microsoft Build conference). Having read here on HN about the housing problems and high rents I was surprised to see quite a lot of poorly maintained buildings, if you go a bit outside the centre. From my perspective, there seems lots of room for building and improvement. They could take down blocks and build more densely while improving quality. As in all US cities, a lot o…

I'm also from northern Europe, and the average housing standard here is absolutely crap compared to where I'm from. For fun, try browsing apartments here on craigslist and you'll get to see the interiors as well. And when you then look at the prices of these things, it all seems like a cruel joke.

If you just visited the conference you probably didn't see Mission Bay, but they are doing the same here as in most other coastal cities, i.e. repurposing old harbour industrial zones and building large apartment buildings, it's just way, way too little, too late.

But I agree with you that there are so many city blocks that currently house a bunch of poorly maintained two-story buildings that should just be demolished and replaced with a single modern, tall residential building. There is nothing of value to preserve there.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#115

Post by rsync » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:17 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #50

"We are on a self-imposed path leading to only one place: a city that is entirely rich and, more or less, entirely white." Sounds like a plan. The problem is this. SF is built out; to build something, you have to demolish something first. So the alternative is high-rise housing. High-rise low-income housing, especially high-rise low-income housing, has been a disaster in the US. Chicago had to demolish the Robert Tay…

"That could happen again."

It will happen again. Again and again and again, and with increasing frequency as the global economy becomes more and more interdependent and fragile.

Housing prices in SF are now fragile to, among other things, the price that Yukos gets for its oil, the banking system in China, grexit/brexit votes in the EU ... on top of all of the usual suspects like interest rates which will become greater than zero at some point in the future.

It's hard to spill too many tears for the very, very current conditions when it is all but assured that everyone will have a buying (and controlled renting) opportunity sometime soon.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#116

Post by rsync » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:23 PM UTC

mahyarm wrote: post #88

joshrotenberg wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ride (and complain about) BART regularly to/from SF from the Berkeley/El Cerrito area. The truth is that it's still pretty reliable, though having lived where I am now since 2004 the decline in reliability and increase in crowding clearly isn't going to stop. One alternative is AC Transit's transbay service, which I swore by for many years. Unfortunately the increase in road traffic has that option declining as wel…

Boats are fundamentally slow and cannot dock at the center of a city where most jobs are, but it's edges. Docking and boarding/unboarding is a minimum 5-10 minute process too. A really fast ferry goes at 30 knots, which is around 35 miles per hour. Often ferries are there because building the equivalent bridge or train doesn't meet the cost/benefit ratio, otherwise they are an inferior transportation option. The reas…

"Boats are fundamentally slow and cannot dock at the center of a city where most jobs are, but it's edges."

The ferry terminal in San Francisco, on the embarcadaro, is about as central as central gets ...

Yes, there is a Vallejo ferry which goes right to the center (see just above) of San Francisco.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#117

Post by mikeyouse » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:32 PM UTC

epa wrote: post #107

mikeyouse wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some employees at UCSF do this -- They can get on a 7-on/7-off schedule, fly in from somewhere more reasonable (often Denver or somewhere in the Midwest), stay on a couch for a week, earn a SF salary then fly back to a $1,500/month mortgage somewhere else.

'Stay on a couch for a week' - pretty large pre-requisite here..

I don't disagree, but they often have coworkers who work opposite shifts (7am - 7pm vs. 7pm - 7am) so they can share an apartment space without running into each other too much.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#118

Post by beavisthegenius » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:35 PM UTC

The problem is NIMBYs. No one wants their view ruined so The City has height restrictions. Developers want to max out profit and only build luxury high rises downtown. New developments in Daly City, South San Francisco, San Carlos, San Mateo, Pacifica et al. don't go anywhere because Peninsula, East Bay & South Bay suburbanites don't want to expand a borough like New York City. Comparisons to NYC are difficult because NYC is one city. To truly accomodate the demand for Bay Area housing, we can't just focus on San Francisco. Per Wikipedia, Manhattan has ~1.6MM people in ~22 sq mi of land. We need many, many more taller buildings. Try getting current landowners to change the 3 story restriction.

1. My goal for San Francisco is a diverse city The City was diverse before the tech boom. The tech boom is pushing people out. Contrast the population of San Francisco with San Jose. Why is SJ more diverse? The white, suburbanites move to SF not SJ because they want NYC on the West Coast. A city of 860k vs 8mm have much more opportunity to have diversity. Again, there needs to be coordination across multiple municipalities that simply don't want to work together.

"I want to live in a beautiful, multiethnic, socioeconomically mixed community. A city where people of low, moderate, and high incomes live together, and people of different ethnicities interact." You should have moved here 20 years ago and then you would understand why long time residents hate the newcomers.

2. A little self awareness about my my role and position in San Francisco You grew up poor but aren't now. Super.

3. The cause of our housing problem is huge demand in the face of limited supply There were population exoduses for many years. The demand is relatively new problem. If you had been here in 2002, landlords were begging you to rent in SF. Granted, you graduated college in 2009 so you wouldn't know that but believe me, this is a recent problem caused by recent graduates.

I want to keep responding to your posts but I'm too tired. This isn't NYC and there aren't 5 boroughs that are able to be coordinated for building codes and transportation. This isn't an easy fix and, forgive me, I find your youthful perspective insulting as you have no idea how long these issues have been brewing. Chris Daly was a big proponent of affordable housing. Read up on him.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#119

Post by beavisthegenius » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:43 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #62

Fede_V wrote: post #31

Housing in SF is an incredibly powerful illustration of the danger of letting things get so bad that the usual remedies no longer apply. Basically: - Traditionally, the proper fix for a shortage of housing is to build more houses. Just lift the existing regulations, and let the free market do what it does best: take care of the demand at an efficient price. - However, after years and years of very slow building, the…

...the houses would almost all be built for the very well off. The amount of houses you'd have to build before you started constructing truly affordable housing is immense. This is a common mistake. In reality, all added supply brings down price levels across the board.

Not necessarily. If the supply & demand meet at equilibrium for a commonly agreed price then added supply will decrease price. However, we aren't at equilibrium as we continually see sales going for 500k-1mm+ above asking which implies that true price discovery hasn't been reached. With such forces still in play, it would only make sense to cater to the demand willing and able to afford such prices. There isn't any reason to be build low income housing despite the demand because the economic benefit to the builder and seller isn't there.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#120

Post by PaulHoule » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 9:48 PM UTC

(11) If you love it, be ready to leave it.

If investors in the area are not willing to look outside, politicans and others in the San Francisco area know they have enough leverage on you that they can keep following the same failed policies.

Only when you stop the policy of redlining 99% of America and show San Francisco there is a real threat the jobs will move away will any reform be possible.