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The Problem with Electric Vehicles

jacquesmattheij.com

121–130 of 205 posts

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#121

You find this guy to be "brilliant"? I only skimmed the article, but it's just the same old, tired, ignorant anti-EV talking points I see from Luddites and oil industry shills every time I come across some kind of anti-EV rant. This article is just better written, but it's the same crap. If I were being extremely generous, I would just say that it's obviously not written by an engineer or anyone who really understand…

> but it's just the same old, tired, ignorant anti-EV talking points I see from Luddites and oil industry shills every time I come across some kind of anti-EV rant God, how I love HN and the endless stream of negativity that it can produce. Just for you, from this 'Luddite and oil industry shill': http://jacquesmattheij.com/how-to-build-a-windmill Now, do fuck off. Apologies for breaking HN etiquette but I've really…

>> Apologies for breaking HN etiquette but I've really had it, blame my lack of sleep or whatever is convenient but comments like yours really make my blood boil.

After all these years you've spent on HN I'm actually wondering why you would even bother to get your blood to boil. HN is a great place for discussion and to keep up-to-date with what's going on in tech, startup culture and all things connected to them, but it's quite obvious that the comments section has always been full of groupthink, non-sequiturs, echochambers, strawmen and ad-hominems, right?

I found your analysis informative, well-researched and to the point. I can't say I agree with everything (e.g. I don't think the power grid will be the biggest obstacle, I still believe we'll figure out a way to decentralize the grid and produce enough power wherever it is needed without relying on big power plants). But I do agree with the overall sentiment that EV's are not going to completely replace ICE's anytime soon (if ever).

By the way, I'd like to point out that the percentage of PEV's sold in the Netherlands is a very misleading number. The percentage is relatively high but the majority of these cars are hybrids that almost always run exclusively on gasoline. The reason for this is that most new cars sold in the Netherlands are lease-cars, most of the brand new cars you'll see on the road here are not privately owned but part of the compensation package of many middle- and higher-class jobs. Car manufacturers have been very smart to play into the tax system, strongly pushing PEV models that ended up in low tax brackets ('bijtelling', a monthly tax payed by everyone driving a lease car, based on a percentage of the list price of each lease car, where the percentage is based on how 'clean' the car is considered to be). Previously, hybrid PEV's that were terribly inefficient when driving on gasoline (such as the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV) used to have a very favorable 'bijtelling' because they could in theory be used as EV. In practice, nobody drives an Outlander on electricity because the range is horrible, and most lease car drivers have an all-inclusive contract where their employer pays for the fuel. Recently tax regulations have changed to only include pure EV's in the lowest brackets, and all these hybrid PEV's are now taxed almost as high as non-EV's. I would not be surprised to see the percentage of PEV's sold in NL to actually go down.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ICE cars will go first. Most personal cars are only driven a small mileage per day and don't need to carry much weight. Needing to go more than 350 miles in a day, or needing to tow a trailer are statistical outliers to most users. Anyone who occasionally needs to go really far or carry more weight will find another solution. As you said, I doubt ICE cars will go away completely. There's too much hobby/enthusiasm beh…

Quite so. The Honda Accord, or Ford Focus family car that takes the kids to school, a 30 mile daily commute and a few trips to the shops is the low hanging fruit. They're easy to replace. If you need something to haul a big caravan for holiday, or trailer for a move. Just rent - the rental shops will expand to fit nicely. Probably a nice big diesel. The v8 offroader that actually works offroad, the truck, and shippin…

"Probably a nice big diesel."

There's an interesting synergy with other technologies. For example, its pretty trivial to prove you'd have to cover the surface of the earth with a ridiculous number of sunflowers to grow enough oil to power the world with biodiesel using existing vehicles.

However, if 99.9% of car miles driven were solar electric, if not more, then its quite realistic to power every rental truck in the world off biodiesel.

My lifetime driving so far is around 200K miles, and I've driven the home depot truck, enterprise rent a car, and u-haul trucks a total of perhaps 200 miles, so a thousandth of miles driven being biodiesel powered doesn't sound terribly unrealistic on average.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#123
post #96
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the true problems? I find Jacques' concerns to be well thought out, showing that he has actually dug into the numbers. However, I'm interested to know what you see are even more significant problems.

Its sort of an amateurs discuss tactics and generals discuss logistics kind of problem. Oddly enough for HN, its a scalability problem (LOL). If you turned the entire known planetary stock of economically useful lithium ore into present gen batteries with 100% efficiency (LOL) and eliminated all competing uses (LOL), depending who's goofy numbers you use, you could give every human on the planet roughly one electric…

Sodium-ion appears to be practical enough (just not as attractive as lithium ion, so less developed). Sodium ion beats lead acid for specific energy and sodium is rather more abundant than lithium.

Also, 1 car per person is probably more than is necessary.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#124
post #45

I have an electric car, a leaf. I also have solar power from Solar City. I live in sunny MA, where in the winter we average 15kWh generated to the summer we average 50kWh. My commute is 60 miles per day which is around 6-8kW depending in traffic and weather. Also, my local power is a mixture of nuclear and wind. So. Can we please stop rolling coal burning power plants into the electric car equation as if it is univer…

When you are looking at electric vehicles globally or even nationally you must take the power plants into the equations.

Whilst you may get electricity from renewable sources, and that is good for you, when you look at the country as a whole, renewable sources make up a small percentage of the total electricity produced.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#125
post #105

The problem I have with these arguments is they compare all electric vehicles to all internal combustion engines. I don't think that's realistic. Everyone is not going to convert to electric vehicles. I think it's terrific that there is diversity in the energy base for transportation. This is very healthy for the economy and for the country in general. While it's true, that these new technologies may require adjustme…

As more and more people will adopt EVs, you can expect:

- gas stations and car dealers to go bankrupt

- price for maintenance and spare parts to jump

- investment in oil extraction to drop (as demand for oil decreases)

- gas prices to increase at the pump, due to diseconomies of scale within the oil industry and carbon tax

This could quickly translate into a vicious circle, and make ICE as luxurious as horse riding.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#126

Several of the author's arguments center around what exists today in terms of infrastructure. Yes, if necessary grid/stations don't exist the average EV purchaser might have trouble getting recharged, kWh prices might go up, etc... Deep eye roll at stuff like this. I hope the author realizes that at some point there wasn't a network of gas stations across the country, there wasn't much of an electrical grid, or a hig…

> I hope the author realizes that at some point there wasn't a network of gas stations across the country,

Not much of an argument. The ICE won out over electric drivetrains for the express reason that liquid fuels are far easier to provide logistics for than batteries. Most electric car makers stopped production at some point in the 1910s. It's not that electric vehicles were never tried out. They were. Gasoline was just a way better fit.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#127

Hmm. All problems that could have been set at the door of internal combustion when it was new. They'll be solved as EVs make up a larger percentage of what's on the road. Are EVs the endgame? I suspect not. Apart from anything else I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs. Would we be better investing in public transport that's convenient and reliable enough people wa…

I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs The economics don't stack up today for long-distance EV trucking, but it's quite possible that they will in a decade or so, with ongoing incremental improvements in battery costs and energy density. The limitations now are cost and infrastructure, not technology. If we imagine, say, an HGV with a 500kWh battery pack then it sho…

Refrigerated trailers powered by a separate on board diesel engine have been a thing for decades... attaching a small gen to a small charger that supplies more long term average KW than the truck needs, turns an electric truck into a hybrid, for those ice road guys.

I would not be surprised to see something on a small scale for u-haul type rental where a rental trailer would come with a small gas generator and a SAE J1772 charger connector on a cord giving you infinite moderate speed range, or at least infinite until 100 miles after you run out of gas. Possibly people would rent those trailers to travel long distances even if they have nothing to actually carry, just to get infinite range. For most of the population, traveling very long distances is very unusual.

Renting trailers is a COTS business model, ditto renting generators, and even the business model of renting medium size building contractor generators mounted on a trailer. Other than adding a weather proof fairing, a larger gas tank, and a COTS plug in EV charger, there's nothing obscure about this fairly obvious future business model.

You might need a software update for the car, so the car understands its safe to drive away with the charger cord still attached.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it's just the same old, tired, ignorant anti-EV talking points I see from Luddites and oil industry shills every time I come across some kind of anti-EV rant God, how I love HN and the endless stream of negativity that it can produce. Just for you, from this 'Luddite and oil industry shill': http://jacquesmattheij.com/how-to-build-a-windmill Now, do fuck off. Apologies for breaking HN etiquette but I've really…

I see you've already called out to one HN comment. This sentence appears to be missing a negative: being without power meant that our house would be inhabitable almost instantly Really interesting article (and disagree with the HN negatives too - you make some good points, though I see that a few of them have been answered in comments to a reasonable degree of my satisfaction, particularly the "plug in for the night…

Fixed that error, thank you.

Yes, some of the comments here have definitely been helpful, in particular, I wasn't aware that was technology that was already being worked on so that's definitely a gain for the day.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#129
A few thoughts/ideas:

Grid saturation: smart charging to flatten the demand curve (overnight), daylight charging with more chargers in parking spaces at the office, west-facing solar panels and grid storage to smooth the duck curve.

Lack of chargers on the highway: increase in charging speed (15 minutes breaks are recommended after 2h of driving), increased battery range, platooning with autopilot can save 15% of energy [0], very low cost of expanding supercharger networks, auto-pilot to tolerate longer drive, auto-park to accept longer pauses, battery swapping

Energy sources far from charging stations: don't underestimate the predominance of home charging; south-facing solar panels and wind turbines along highways; grid storage; battery swapping

Car sharing: battery swapping again; autonomous fleets to dispatch charged car and auto-park cars (with snake-like charger to auto-plug)

Infrastructure investment: large public program for distributed generation with solar panels and grid storage

Range anxiety: 250 miles might be the average range for EV in 2020, supercharging and battery swapping to the rescue

Trailers: battery swapping again, and battery integrated in the trailer (might turn into a backup battery once at home)

Lack of servcie: EVs require far less maintenance than ICE, Musk intend to make a 1-million miles powertrain and reuse battery for grid storage; also industry-wide standardization

Tax break: they will somehow be extended to balance the externalities of fossil fuels (health, environment); EV will reach cost-parity very soon too.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platoon_%28automobile%29

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't find the paper, but the US DOE has a report from 10 years ago that ~77%~ 84% of light vehicles (cars) can be moved to the electric grid using existing generation resources. Consider that wind and solar installations are accelerating (and that wind is so cheap in parts of Texas, its free at night!) and I can assure you, there is no electrical grid burden. EDIT: Citation http://www.world-nuclear.org/information…

Not sure why you are downvoted, but 77% of light vehicles does not equate to 77% of total consumption. 77% of the light vehicles are likely exactly that 77% that is used rarely, it's just the Pareto principle at work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle , the bulk of the consumption will be done by a relatively small number of consumers. And so a very large number of those consumers could be converted to e…

"77% of the light vehicles are likely exactly that 77% that is used rarely"

I won't use the word 'extraordinary', but that's at least a strong claim, so needs strong evidence to back it. Why wouldn't 77% of vehicles mean 77% of the load?

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