Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#111

Post by bryanlarsen » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:58 PM UTC

whatever_dude wrote: post #105

partiallypro wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, most of the "reservations" are not going to be real customers. It's just something to tout to shareholders to justify their massive multiple. Tesla is in a race against the clock, they are practically corporate welfare queens with their subsidies and they continue to take on more debt.

I'm confused by the assertion. Do you mean that a lot of people that reserved are not serious? They had to pay $1,000 for the reservation, so that looks unlikely to me. Or do you mean the company has inflated the number of actual reservations?

For example, I made a reservation. We expect to buy a car somewhere around 2018, so we made a reservation in case we want a Model 3. I expect the model 3 will be high on our list, but we'll definitely comparison shop when the time comes.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#112

Post by jusben1369 » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:59 PM UTC

electrograv wrote: post #94

jusben1369 wrote: post #84

One of the things I find fascinating, and that Tesla has to grapple with at some point with real ramifications, is: are they a self driving car company that just happens to be an electric car company? Or the other way around? I would argue that electric car companies are appealing to a much smaller subset of potential customers than are self driving cars. But the mission behind each is very different and that flows i…

Why do you need to define a car company in a single adjective like "[self driving] car company" or "[electric] car company"? Both are clearly the future. So what's wrong with doing both? You say "pivot" as though these are incompatible goals, when in fact they're perfectly complementary paths to a future ideal of ground transportation. To me, your point is like asking "Is Google a search company, or an advertising co…

Everything about Tesla has been around helping/saving the environment by accelerating the adoption of battery driven cars vs ICE. Nothing about self driving cars says they have to be electric. In fact, if the first fully self driving car was gasoline that would probably impede Tesla's growth. So it impacts where your limited R&D, manufacturing and sales and marketing $$"s go. I don't think a company as small as Tesla can be both - at least not effectively. One will have to give to the other.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#113

Post by jon_dahl » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:00 PM UTC

jusben1369 wrote: post #84

One of the things I find fascinating, and that Tesla has to grapple with at some point with real ramifications, is: are they a self driving car company that just happens to be an electric car company? Or the other way around? I would argue that electric car companies are appealing to a much smaller subset of potential customers than are self driving cars. But the mission behind each is very different and that flows i…

I think the whole point of Tesla is to be an excellent car company. "Electric" and "self-driving" just happen to be two attributes of an excellent car company at this particular point in history.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#114

Post by Reedx » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:00 PM UTC

madaxe_again wrote: post #93

grecy wrote: post #3

Unveil part 2 is "super next-level". And the "steering controls and system feels like a spaceship" And Musk tweeted a little while ago about getting a special team of Software Engineers reporting directly to him for self-driving that was "top priority" within the company. And there are no gauges directly in front of the driver at all, which has been confirmed to be like that for production. At this point, can it be a…

"Feels like a spaceship" sounds weird to me. piloting a spacecraft isn't all that easy. In fact, when we're criticising UX we say it's like the controls in the space shuttle.

Perception vs Reality. :)

I think most people imagine piloting a spaceship as being awesome. And are thinking of it more like sci-fi spaceships rather than a modern day shuttle packed with obtuse controls.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#115

Post by chc » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:02 PM UTC

grecy wrote: post #3

Unveil part 2 is "super next-level". And the "steering controls and system feels like a spaceship" And Musk tweeted a little while ago about getting a special team of Software Engineers reporting directly to him for self-driving that was "top priority" within the company. And there are no gauges directly in front of the driver at all, which has been confirmed to be like that for production. At this point, can it be a…

Musk said on Twitter that Autopilot convenience features would not be included in the base model, "same as S and X." So it doesn't seem like they would be basing the interior design on an optional feature.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#116

Post by cryptoz » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:02 PM UTC

madaxe_again wrote: post #93

grecy wrote: post #3

Unveil part 2 is "super next-level". And the "steering controls and system feels like a spaceship" And Musk tweeted a little while ago about getting a special team of Software Engineers reporting directly to him for self-driving that was "top priority" within the company. And there are no gauges directly in front of the driver at all, which has been confirmed to be like that for production. At this point, can it be a…

"Feels like a spaceship" sounds weird to me. piloting a spacecraft isn't all that easy. In fact, when we're criticising UX we say it's like the controls in the space shuttle.

Sure, but not the spaceships that Elon builds. Those spaceships have controls like a single digital button that says "land" or "dock".

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#117

Post by partiallypro » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:02 PM UTC

whatever_dude wrote: post #105

partiallypro wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, most of the "reservations" are not going to be real customers. It's just something to tout to shareholders to justify their massive multiple. Tesla is in a race against the clock, they are practically corporate welfare queens with their subsidies and they continue to take on more debt.

I'm confused by the assertion. Do you mean that a lot of people that reserved are not serious? They had to pay $1,000 for the reservation, so that looks unlikely to me. Or do you mean the company has inflated the number of actual reservations?

The $1000 is 100% refundable. A person that can afford a Tesla can afford to put down $1000 with no risk. Heck, even a normal middle class person could probably foot $1000 at no risk.

Reservations are not sales. They are just something to tout to shareholders. If they wanted real numbers they'd make it non-refundable and up the down payment. The stock trades at an absolutely insane valuation (it's actually valued not too far from massive manufacturers like Ford and GM), the company will have to take on more debt to fulfill the reservations putting the company at liquidity risk. If the orders don't come through and you have increased debt burden, you're gonna have a bad time. This isn't something I'm making up, even the analysts at UBS agree.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#118

Post by zardo » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:03 PM UTC

vrfcodf wrote: post #38

dorianm wrote: post #23

I couldn't believe it was gonna be a fully autonomous car long-term until I saw the empty dashboard in the video: http://i.imgur.com/XcUjuDv.jpg

How could it be? The regulations don't allow it. I don't see it happening sooner than 10 years. If so, what is their plan?

NHTSA is scrambling to make it possible, this is the biggest safety innovation in cars since the seat belt. And as long as they have the hardware capabilities, Tesla wouldn't have to launch it with full autonomous mode available.

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#119

Post by jkaunisv1 » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:03 PM UTC

madaxe_again wrote: post #93

grecy wrote: post #3

Unveil part 2 is "super next-level". And the "steering controls and system feels like a spaceship" And Musk tweeted a little while ago about getting a special team of Software Engineers reporting directly to him for self-driving that was "top priority" within the company. And there are no gauges directly in front of the driver at all, which has been confirmed to be like that for production. At this point, can it be a…

"Feels like a spaceship" sounds weird to me. piloting a spacecraft isn't all that easy. In fact, when we're criticising UX we say it's like the controls in the space shuttle.

I think he means "feels like a spaceship from a sci-fi movie"

Re: Tesla Intrigue Deepens with Musk's Twitter Barrage

#120

Post by pfortuny » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 4:04 PM UTC

Mvandenbergh wrote: post #33

yoodenvranx wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At this point, can it be anything other than full autonomous? There is no way that autonomous driving is going to work in most small European town and villages. There are so many downtowns which were never meant to be used by car and it is already difficult to navigate those places as a human. I just don't see how this should work over here in Europe. Selfdriving on the highway or in a typical suburban sprawl in th…

I actually think that low speed driving and parking in very narrow streets is much easier for an autonomous system than for a person. All those obstacles are made of stone so nice juicy returns for the sensor systems. Carrying out a turn with a centimetre of clearance from a hard surface is much easier for a computer than maintaining lane discipline on a road with faded markings at high speed.

The problem is not necessarily "obstacles made of stone." Think about lanes in the countryside where you only see grass and the possibility of a ditch to either side... I guess that is really complicated for a self-driving car to manage in each and every case as well as human does.

Yes, walls are easily located. Holes not so much. Emptiness is quite difficult to see.