The Problem with Electric Vehicles • Hacker News Board

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#101

Post by pjkundert » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:43 PM UTC

If you consider that EVs have A) large batteries w/ efficient charge/discharge cycles, B) efficient high-capacity inverters, and C) are plugged in (somewhere) for large fractions of their life, and D) very often have capacity far exceeding their next expected trip duration, then:

It is inevitable that Tesla (or someone else) will implement Grid-tied battery backup as a standard option on these vehicles.

When that happens -- the Grid gets "free" multi-GWh battery-based load shedding.

Why is this not considered an inevitability? Am I missing something obvious here?

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#102

Post by anexprogrammer » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:43 PM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #67

anexprogrammer wrote: post #3

Hmm. All problems that could have been set at the door of internal combustion when it was new. They'll be solved as EVs make up a larger percentage of what's on the road. Are EVs the endgame? I suspect not. Apart from anything else I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs. Would we be better investing in public transport that's convenient and reliable enough people wa…

I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs The economics don't stack up today for long-distance EV trucking, but it's quite possible that they will in a decade or so, with ongoing incremental improvements in battery costs and energy density. The limitations now are cost and infrastructure, not technology. If we imagine, say, an HGV with a 500kWh battery pack then it sho…

I think the best solution involves evoluton of the delivery network, so maybe EV haulage is closer than I think..

An EV light truck is perfect for the final delivery to home or shop, and doubly so in congested inner cities with pollution charges, like London.

I could be wrong, but I thought the London Routemasters were hybrids?

HGV delivery might evolve to a combination of more rail, longhaul diesel HGVs and EV light trucks, or even full EV HGVs where the range is lower. Like making several supermarket drops in a city. Whatever way you look at it, we're already making excellent, and suprisingly quick, progress.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#103

Post by mikeash » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:44 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #93

mikeash wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no particular reason you can't install curbside chargers. It's just a matter of convincing the powers that be to allow it, and that is just a matter of EVs becoming common enough for there to be demand for it.

There's no particular reason we can't install a gas pump on every street corner, and in every office parking space, either - except for economies of scale, environmental reviews, HOA opposition, theft and vandalism... These are not insurmountable problems, but they are expensive, or very time-consuming ones. You also can't just run a power cord from a wall outlet to the street. You'll need to tear up the sidewalks, t…

What's your point? The expense and danger of gas pumps make them completely incomparable to EV charging stations.

Replying to your edit: If you're installing them for a whole street at once, then the cost of bringing power down from a pole or digging under the sidewalk gets amortized across them all. We already hook every house up for water, gas, electricity, and communications. Providing power to every parking spot doesn't have to be particularly hard. It's not so easy you can ignore it, but nor is it a particularly big deal, not when looking at a timespan of decades.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#104

Post by Grishnakh » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:45 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #74

Grishnakh wrote: post #61

You find this guy to be "brilliant"? I only skimmed the article, but it's just the same old, tired, ignorant anti-EV talking points I see from Luddites and oil industry shills every time I come across some kind of anti-EV rant. This article is just better written, but it's the same crap. If I were being extremely generous, I would just say that it's obviously not written by an engineer or anyone who really understand…

> but it's just the same old, tired, ignorant anti-EV talking points I see from Luddites and oil industry shills every time I come across some kind of anti-EV rant God, how I love HN and the endless stream of negativity that it can produce. Just for you, from this 'Luddite and oil industry shill': http://jacquesmattheij.com/how-to-build-a-windmill Now, do fuck off. Apologies for breaking HN etiquette but I've really…

Fuck off yourself, you stupid piece of shit.

I stand by my comments: this article was standard anti-EV bullshit, and if you don't like my opinion, you can go die in a fire for all I care.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#105

Post by RP_Joe » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:49 PM UTC

The problem I have with these arguments is they compare all electric vehicles to all internal combustion engines. I don't think that's realistic. Everyone is not going to convert to electric vehicles.

I think it's terrific that there is diversity in the energy base for transportation. This is very healthy for the economy and for the country in general.

While it's true, that these new technologies may require adjustments, sometimes these adjustments can be overstated.

The actual energy usage for many appliances and industry is going down. LED light bulbs and other technologies are lowering the load to the grid. It's not a simple equation. It's a very complex equation and I don't think anyone has spent the time to factor that. At least I have not seen any studies on that.

This electric vehicle movement is not just about electric cars. People are rethinking their transportation. That's very healthy. It would be great if we continue to improve mass transit in America, so that less vehicles of all types are needed. I think many Americans would like to see that.

We're still also in the very early stages of electric vehicle's engineering. It's not a good idea to extrapolate out into the future based upon the technology of today. It's likely these electric vehicles become even more efficient in the future. As we see more volume in the industry, third-party players will also come in with unique ideas and improvements.

This mix of electric and internal combustion is really exciting. I think it's terrific that people are being lured from internal combustion to electric vehicles. The whole system seems to be going in a good direction. I don't agree with the naysayers. The outlook looks very promising.

These electric vehicles continued to sell even though the price of fuel for internal combustion's has fallen. The price of electricity is much more stable than the price of gasoline. This may also help people in making their decisions.

I suspect in the future we will see families with both electric cars and internal combustion. It will not be either or.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#106

Post by nmeofthestate » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:49 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #55

jwalton wrote: post #28

1 isn't a problem; it's awesome. Most people are going to plug in their cars at about 5:30-7, but most people don't actually care when, overnight, their car charges, so some smart software can stage charging, and we can use this to smooth out the peaks and valleys in demand. The electric company here in Ontario already tries to do this by charging less for electricity off-peak. 2 is a problem, but not an insurmountab…

> is a non-issue for many people. I drive 15km to work every day, and then 15km home. I'd be happy with a car with a 100 mile range, to be honest. You should cycle if that's an option where you live. That's not a distance that I would consider taking the car for, but then again, nl has excellent bicycle infrastructure.

Hmm. I just calculated that it'd take me over 2 hours to cycle 30km, based on my commute (mind you, we have hills here). Nae chance!

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#107

Post by NickM » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:50 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #70

turar wrote: post #46

Can somebody explain how are EV, and especially Tesla, batteries different from, say, my laptop batteries, which normally degrade to the point of being unusable within 4-5 years, and have to be replaced?

EV batteries are treated much better than the batteries in your laptop. First, EV batteries typically have active thermal management. Heat kills lithium ion batteries. When you charge your laptop, the battery gets hot, and this accelerates degradation. When you charge your car, the cooling system engages and keeps the battery at the optimal temperature. (The LEAF doesn't have an active cooling system for its battery.…

Excellent writeup. Also worth noting is that there are many different types of battery chemistry used by different lithium-ion cells: laptops may have cells with chemistries optimized for a certain lifetime/capacity/power tradeoff, whereas EVs may use a completely different chemistry with very different properties.

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#108

Post by cubano » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:51 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #13

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas is $2 right?

Temporarily. You successfully tell me where oil prices are going to be in a year, and you'll be the richest person in the world. http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-char...

It seems unlikely that the price of gas will be able to go much higher than the US fracking break-even point, which seems to be around $25/bbl. [1]

But yes who knows...coming regulations may change that number significantly.

www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/12/crude-oil-price-still-crashing-toward-25-breakeven/

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#109

Post by dandermotj » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:52 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #20

This is not the type of in depth though that I expect from this author, whom I usually find to be brilliant. These are first-level concerns of somebody who just realized electric cars exist and is looking for the "problems", however in practice most of these are mitigated by tech curves, and the true problems are going to be far different.

I agree, this article was disappointing and is attracting the reaction I expected once I finished reading it. Ultimately the author pointed out the minor infrastructure development requirements of EVs, a bizarre point about hauling trailers and the (eventual?) decline in tax incentives for EVs across the globe, which may or may not be the case given the economical and environmental savings governments accrue in the future. Then the author provides the simple solutions which many commentators are providing in the conclusion.

Maybe more interesting angles could have been supplying the gigantic increase in demand for metals required to produce EV batteries, or the regulatory/industrial battle the EV industry faces with the traditional auto and oil industries (notably the Koch brothers).

Re: The Problem with Electric Vehicles

#110

Post by Roboprog » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 3:53 PM UTC

anexprogrammer wrote: post #57

phineastcat wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ICE cars will go first. Most personal cars are only driven a small mileage per day and don't need to carry much weight. Needing to go more than 350 miles in a day, or needing to tow a trailer are statistical outliers to most users. Anyone who occasionally needs to go really far or carry more weight will find another solution. As you said, I doubt ICE cars will go away completely. There's too much hobby/enthusiasm beh…

Quite so. The Honda Accord, or Ford Focus family car that takes the kids to school, a 30 mile daily commute and a few trips to the shops is the low hanging fruit. They're easy to replace. If you need something to haul a big caravan for holiday, or trailer for a move. Just rent - the rental shops will expand to fit nicely. Probably a nice big diesel. The v8 offroader that actually works offroad, the truck, and shippin…

Anecdata: I (almost) bought a used Nissan Leaf (~ $10K) a while back. For taking my daughter to work (about 20 miles round trip), it was great. Just put it back on the charger, which was only a 15 amp 110 V charger, and it was ready to go again in a few hours. (edit: it still had 2/3 the battery left, but was fully recharged in just a few hours)

Unfortunately, my commute is a bit further (almost 50 miles), which left almost nothing in the slightly aged battery, and caused a "non linear" increase in charge time (without getting a 220 V upgrade charger)

The car (Leaf) was plenty peppy, but the range dropped considerably when going 65 to 70 MPH on the freeway, vs 30 to 50 MPH through town. The maintenance schedule was something like "check the break system every 6 months; get new tires every 3 years; replace the battery every 8 years" (or something along that line).

Still, if you have a short commute, or, as a "mom-mobile", getting a used EV is a no brainer (especially if you have cheap electricity like under Sac's SMUD utility). Just rent the vacation car twice a year. When we fly, that's what we do, anyway.